South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[Timbo]

Snowing heavier in Lowestoft now and starting to settle..

Temp dropping nicely cyrrently at 1.2 and dew poin of -0.9

[ChartViewer]

I am not so sure on amounts have you looked at NW forecast for Mon/Tues,very strong winds and medium/heavy snow...considering booking Tuesday off in case I am very late home on Monday....don't wan't to waste a days holiday but recently have been late home every day due to crashes etc so add a bit of snow and it could be worse...

GFS very suspect...would rather stick to UKMO forecasts and other radar etc.......doubt we will see much in way of moderate amounts...flurries, 2cm etc...nothing to write home about im afraid.

[ukpaul]

COAMPS, NAVGEM, GEM & GME all very good for SE snow, NOGAPS with the UKMO as Southern fringe only, GFS sort of in the middle. NAE drops low into France instead.

JMA, BOM and ECM to come.

Edited March 9, 2013 by ukpaul

[Guest bjaykent]

The latest NAE is different to the previous one for 6am Monday with the main snow band absent. I know it might sound like I am saying it because I don't like what it suggests, but it looks a bit suspect ppn wise to me. Even over Northern France very close to the low, it looks like it has underdone the amount of ppn. Its not uncommon to got one rogue output on the NAE - especially in its 'FI' frames.

Might be worth evaluating the position after the evening one has come out. GFS still bullish amount bringing the snow to southern counties, although as you say it is more progressive in clearing it away

Yes, as you I think said yesterday, there isn't a lot of room for manoeuvre with a Channel Low, small adjustments make big differences to ppn but on the face of it nae does look a little odd and you can't really see it would go on to bring anything more on Tuesday from those charts either.

[john pike]

heres a bit of fun

updated fax for tomorrow

another change

[Tamara]

Yes, as you I think said yesterday, there isn't a lot of room for manoeuvre with a Channel Low, small adjustments make big differences to ppn but on the face of it nae does look a little odd and you can't really see it would go on to bring anything more on Tuesday from those charts either.

So far as Ukpaul says there is a spread of solutions with the ppn/snow band on the updated model output. I agree with what he says in terms of GFS maybe being a midway solution. For now at least, I think that the UKMO and NAE are undercooking prospects. In this regard, comments from Ian F might be helpful later in terms of how they view ensemble data (e.g MOGREPS) next to these operational outputs

Edited March 9, 2013 by Tamara Road

[anything-but]

heres a bit of fun

updated fax for tomorrow

another change

Early onset of the white stuff?

[john pike]

will do a fax update when the new ones are out

around 5.30

[Guest bjaykent]

Touch of spring GFS FI

[alexisj9]

heres a bit of fun

updated fax for tomorrow

another change

They forgot the dam line, would that still be just above the front as before?

[john pike]

Early onset of the white stuff?

hi mate

at present i would not call that dry with that front

where it is

will update soon

[ChartViewer]

Would def stick to UKMO forecasts, updates rather than the GFS which really cannot predict our shores at this short range...just a generic forecast from gfs in my eyes........especially as the ppn is now right on top of us or not so to speak

Edited March 9, 2013 by ChartViewer

[bobbydog]

As i was saying before highest risk mon eve - tuesday, hope it happens!

Looks fun

well no, you said the snow risk wasn't due til monday eve. if the meto warnings are correct, we should see snow right across the southern counties all through monday with the risk moving east on monday eve, giving further accumulations. i hope it happens as well as i'm in both of the warning areas!

[john pike]

Would def stick to UKMO forecasts, updates than the GFS which really cannot predict our shores at this short range...just a generic forecast from gfs in my eyes........especially as the ppn is now right on top of us or not so to speak

hi mate

to be honest i would wait until tomorrow afternoon

when the cold air is over all of us then watch the radar

best forecasting tool there is

[Isabellesnanny]

What is the forecast on NW based on? - according to that I wil most likely not be able to leave the house for 3 days as it has my postcode under 95% risk of snow from tommorow afternoon all the way through till Tuesday evening - NOT the impression I got from the forecast on the BBC News a few minutes ago.

Do any of you go by NW forecast - never seems very acurate to me - one day last week I had a 95% chance of snow late afternoon when there was no snow forecast anywhere and nor did it arrive - seems to me to be a bit of a white elephant.

[Keraunic]

Just been informed that its snowing in Lowestoft. Can anyone confirm. It looks close on the radar.,

[Tamara]

In terms of the UKMO, it models the ppn some way south of the advisories issued today if early Tuesday is anything to go by.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Tamara Road

[JennyJane1]

Just been informed that its snowing in Lowestoft. Can anyone confirm. It looks close on the radar.,

i'm quite near and its snowing in the air

[Methuselah]

Definitely snowing here, K...Settling too...

[Suburban Streamer]

What is the forecast on NW based on? - according to that I wil most likely not be able to leave the house for 3 days as it has my postcode under 95% risk of snow from tommorow afternoon all the way through till Tuesday evening - NOT the impression I got from the forecast on the BBC News a few minutes ago.

Do any of you go by NW forecast - never seems very acurate to me - one day last week I had a 95% chance of snow late afternoon when there was no snow forecast anywhere and nor did it arrive - seems to me to be a bit of a white elephant.

its based on the gfs and changes after each run, 4 times a day.

like you, i dont find it very accurate

[alexisj9]

Just been informed that its snowing in Lowestoft. Can anyone confirm. It looks close on the radar.,

Someone posted that a few pages back on here. So could be.

[ukpaul]

The two extremes -

NAE

COAMPS

Take your pick.....

[alexisj9]

The two extremes -

NAE

COAMPS

Take your pick.....

I know which one I'm banking, but will it happen.

Edit: I've just noticed they both have the lines of showers coming from the north sea in roughly the same place, so the could help pep up anthing in this area if accurate.

Edited March 9, 2013 by alexisj9

[Keraunic]

Someone posted that a few pages back on here. So could be.

Duh! Yes just noticed that post. And snow in Naaaarich but nowt in The Swich as yet.

[bobbydog]

heres a bit of fun

updated fax for tomorrow

another change

looks to me like an upgrade on that fax. if the cold front makes slower progress, it should allow the precipitation to get further north, putting more of the region in the snow zone.

just to add another point, ian fergusson said that the models struggle with precip forecasts outside of frontal events. that means they can't really predict convective snowfall or dare i say it, streamers. some of us could get a few surprises in the next couple of days......