South East and East Anglia Regional Discussion 9th March 2013

[Coast]

Now the spoiler for most, UKMO:

Now I know these are just precip charts and as such, not that reliable. But they are an indicator and looking across all the ones I've posted the indication to me looks like snow in many places in our region, a dusting for most but more intense and over a longer period the further you go South.

I'm in one of the South coast sweet spots for the UK by the looks of things and as Nick has said, Northern France and the Channel Islands look like they could get something substantially more on current information.

Edited March 9, 2013 by Coast

[abruzzi spur]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2635167

and yes... er these things get changed pretty frequently between broadcast and web, one minute it's there and the next its somewhere else. I remember one year it was snowing all down the eastern side of the UK and the TV presenters were saying rain, the meto must have had snow falling by their window and yet had nothing on their web graphics !

Depends where you look.. I always find the sky quite useful in times like these

Can't argue with that Pixel!!

[snowrye]

A winter of near misses looks like ending with another one,what a shame if it does,would love to get a pasting,but equally would love the warm sunshine.no doubt freezing cold with grey skies then,still its far more exciting than DIY.have a good day folks,fingers crossed it all moves in our favour.

[Coast]

The last chart is only Midnight Sunday. The front isn't really due to push up until after then.

That's because it's as far as that model goes at the moment

[Nick F]

This morning's HIRLAM looks more encouraging for us on Monday:

http://www.aemet.es/en/eltiempo/prediccion/modelosnumericos/hirlam?opc2=sup&opc3=pr

[Pixel]

This morning's HIRLAM looks more encouraging for us on Monday:

http://www.aemet.es/...pc2=sup&opc3=pr

yes that is very tasty !

a bit further north and more intense than this http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

don't know when the iceland one updates tho?

[Sussex Jules]

yes that is very tasty !

a bit further north and more intense than this http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

don't know when the iceland one updates tho?

Its based on ECM so it gets updated when run has finished.

[Coast]

GFS has plenty of moisture coming into the region and we know it's going to be ruddy cold, so fingers crossed:

and the precip just wants to be crystalline please:

here's an odd helical feature:

[abruzzi spur]

Kudos to our very own Nick F, from the model thread just now:

Nick F, on 09 March 2013 - 08:13 , said:

Personally I think the temperatures and the severe wind chill of this cold spell will be the most notable thing rather than snowfall for many areas.

You have almost exactly quoted the UKMO Chief Forecaster!!! He said same this morning!

Edited by fergieweather, 14 minutes ago.

[Stuie]

GFS has plenty of moisture coming into the region and we know it's going to be ruddy cold, so fingers crossed:

and the precip just wants to be crystalline please:

here's an odd helical feature:

Helical chart, not often you see a chart smeared in lipstick. If it means I have to wear some to nudge the darker bit fractionally more north then, OK

[Tom Quintavalle]

Lets hope we get one last throw of the dice to make a few of these fellas, early next week.

Regards,

Tom.

[Guest bjaykent]

Hi, is there anyone (possibly Coast if you're around) that knows what the Nebulosite map represents of the GFS0.5, apart from it looking like the background set to a 1960's Pink Floyd concert i'm struggling to see what it repesents?

http://www.meteociel...bulosite/3h.htm

[Nick F]

Hi, is there anyone (possibly Coast if you're around) that knows what the Nebulosite map represents of the GFS0.5, apart from it looking like the background set to a 1960's Pink Floyd concert i'm struggling to see what it repesents?

http://www.meteociel...bulosite/3h.htm

Nebulosite is French for cloud cover.

[pinball wizard]

Right folks, surely for some of us at least, it's time to start keeping an eye on temperatures and dew points to see whether the rain is any closer to becoming snow? Right now theres light rain and temps of 5c with dp of 3c here in Suffolk.

[Guest bjaykent]

Nebulosite is French for cloud cover.

Thanks for that Nick, interesting colour scheme, I must say!

[Tamara]

Couldn't agree more snowlady. The jokes were funny a few weeks ago, but now just boring.. I still thik its borderline for snow in our neck of the woods.

Yes I agree

Some good summaries this morning already of how things might look for our region. I don't think it is bordeline in terms of whether any precipitation will fall as snow, but as anticipated the detail and placement continues to remain uncertain wrt the northward and to a degree eastward placement of the snow. I do think those in the south western most part of our region have the highest reasons for optimism (and if I was in the south/south western regional thread I would be particularly excited!)

It could be that the greatest dynamic forcing of the ppn later tomorrow night (snow) will come and then the drier air will attempt to eat away at the peripheries of the snow band as it encroaches north eastwards. We saw this during the Friday 18th January snowfall. Therefore there could be some frustration for those in more northern and eastern parts of the region (as things stand). At least initially. Interest then could switch to North Sea snow showers for these areas.

It could be that about Eastbourne westwards is the best placed area (as things provisionally stand) for the main snow band, but plenty of time for further adjustments into Monday morning itself

Edit: NAE by 6am on Monday suggests the sort of tease I was meaning. Looks great for the SW region! The 12z will be interesting for sure!

Edited March 9, 2013 by Tamara Road

[manutdmatt1986]

Latest GFS looks very snowy for the South East - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/1062/gfs-2-66_ora7.png

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Rained most of the night here and now it's wet and duuuuullllll. Not that cold yet mind and its currently 5c. I really hope it doesn't snow. ( sorry snow lovers) I liked it in January but not now.

Sooooo, I'm going to bury myself in 16th century Essex and I'll see you all later. Have a good day everyone.

[BarnetBlizzard]

Don't get too excited people in kent but the Gfs shows 42 hours of constant snow for you lot.

[WillinGlossop]

Kent still looking snowy..... For monday/ tuesday on most model outputs.... Yey...... Radar watching overnight sunday/ monday..... Whatever does fall will be snow though.....but will it lay? Should do....however 'warm' the ground is.....

[anything-but]

Don't get too excited people in kent but the Gfs shows 42 hours of constant snow for you lot.

I`ll bank that.......if "snow" meant more than a few flakes per hour.

[BarnetBlizzard]

I`ll bank that.......if "snow" meant more than a few flakes per hour.

[WillinGlossop]

42 hrs of snow falling on gfs in kent yey!

6pm monday looking peachy..... 1 inch intensity over kent = 1ft of snow? Oh my.....for 12 hours! Ouch!

Edited March 9, 2013 by willinkent44

[Tamara]

I'd like to think that the GFS is leading the way with ppn snow suggestions as the other models are a bit less enthusiastic. Can we keep the faith with it? Because it looks YUMMY!

[anything-but]

Stalling over us for 40+ hours????