North West England Regional Discussion 17th March 2013>

[weatherobsuk]

Was the Northwest due for any convection today? I see towers to my south out towards The Roaches/Leek and a tower to the north close to Stockport. Feels quite 'spring-like' in the sun and despite the convection mainly levelling out in places there's still signs of a few strong updraughts around.

Haven't seen skies look this good since Autumn.

[Brass_Monkeys]

Just walked back home from the gym and it was quite pleasant in the warm sunshine. Hardly a breeze out there today which is helping it feel that much nicer when the sun is out

Currently 7.1C

Edited March 18, 2013 by Brass_Monkeys

[weatherobsuk]

Unbelievable, it was blue skies and t-shirt weather only a hour ago. Now that convection has completely clouded out the skies and we're getting moderate (small sized) hailstones falling.

[Snow free zone]

Surprised to see there wasn't any lying snow up here in south cumbria this morning. Plenty on the hills though. Been raining on and off all day today.

[SparkleS]

Sunny And nearly 8 degrees here, there is some cloud coming in though.

[UV-RAY]

Some sleet here earlier this morning, currently dry and cloudy with a temp of 5.8c.

[itsnowjoke]

Has anyone checked the met office forcast?

[Brass_Monkeys]

Has anyone checked the met office forcast?

Nothing inspiring for my neck of the woods

[jam2010]

Has anyone checked the met office forcast?

Wish we was in the amber actually I would be happy in the yellow warning at the moment.

[itsnowjoke]

Not great then i take it?

[Brass_Monkeys]

Not great then i take it?

Not unless you live in Scotland or the far North East of England. No warnings currently for the Northwest.

This Evening and Tonight:

Occasional light rain or sleet continuing in southern areas overnight, with intermittent sleet or snow also likely in Cumbria from around midnight. Drier with some clear spells in between. Cold enough for icy patches on any wet surfaces. Minimum Temperature -2 °C.

Tuesday:

Outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow affecting most areas during the day, although much of it will be fairly light. Some sunshine also likely. Feeling cold in an easterly breeze. Maximum Temperature 7 °C.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Staying cold with a few wintry showers on Wednesday, but dry and bright on Thursday. Becoming cloudy and windy on Friday, with snow or rain probably arriving during the day.

Issued at: 1600 on Mon 18 Mar 2013

[Mountain Snow]

Snow still covering half the lawn, snowline only risen 50 metres or so. Temperature only got to around 2C, now at 1.6C.

Such a contrast to last March!

[HotCuppa]

Snow in the suspect areas, shouldn't be a surprise really. Look at the snow precip on the radar all stuck in the north and east (north east). There does appear to be quite a temperature difference along with dew points from the north east to us in the south of the north west.

We are all just bracing for some heavy rain showers. The forecast that was for snow as now been replaced with some rain showers over the next 5 days, but nothing significant. 6/8C and dew points in to positive territory is absolute rain conditions. Upper temperatures along with the other conditions = rain if its precip, unless on high ground. I wish we could get out of this crap, and into spring proper. 5% chance of snow is pointless. reminds me of the 100% guarateed chance of snow last week hahaha. Still, at least at the moment it is very far from bitter. The wind here is still, we have clouds, which should help keep temps above freezing again, and a small chance of rain.

No idea what Liverpool airport where talking about, with snow. I had a gut feeling an hour ago, we will probably see a few cm's, then my brain kicked into order and checked the stats..i feel very disappointed at the moment with these poor conditions

[MrSunshine]

Snow in the suspect areas, shouldn't be a surprise really. Look at the snow precip on the radar all stuck in the north and east (north east). There does appear to be quite a temperature difference along with dew points from the north east to us in the south of the north west.

We are all just bracing for some heavy rain showers. The forecast that was for snow as now been replaced with some rain showers over the next 5 days, but nothing significant. 6/8C and dew points in to positive territory is absolute rain conditions. Upper temperatures along with the other conditions = rain if its precip, unless on high ground. I wish we could get out of this crap, and into spring proper. 5% chance of snow is pointless. reminds me of the 100% guarateed chance of snow last week hahaha. Still, at least at the moment it is very far from bitter. The wind here is still, we have clouds, which should help keep temps above freezing again, and a small chance of rain.

No idea what Liverpool airport where talking about, with snow. I had a gut feeling an hour ago, we will probably see a few cm's, then my brain kicked into order and checked the stats..i feel very disappointed at the moment with these poor conditions

Don't know what your on about mate, its cloudy here and temps are falling away along with dew points currently a -0.7 dew point and falling.

EDIT: -0.9 Dew point now and a temp of 2.9c

Edited March 18, 2013 by DaveMac82

[Weather-history]

Unbelievable, it was blue skies and t-shirt weather only a hour ago.

T shirt weather? Come off it. That wind is bitter.

[cheshire snow]

ECM keeps the cold wintry weather going GFS/UKMO V ECM

more twists and turns to go yet

C.S

[cheshire snow]

End of this week onwards is not settled yet by along way,Friday will either be wet and cool,on the other hand it could well

be cold with heavy snow around

C.S

[feb1991blizzard]

According to the latest obs on met and BBC, this location hardly got above freezing all day here, i struggle to believe that as it felt quite warm, although i really don't feel the cold at all so i could be wrong.

As regards later this week, rather than the ECM verifying, i think we would be better off with a couple of hundred miles shift south of the other models, last chance of the winter coming up for a dumping, we saw a big convective Easterly with -13c 850hpa temps deliver a couple of hefty showers last week and that was it, the ECM only has -8c with a South Easterly and i doubt the SST have risen enough to buff up convection anymore, the half way soloution would be very risky with regard to marginality but could net a massive fall, all or nothing IMO. If it were december i would be prefering convection and longjevity of cold ala ECM.

[Backtrack]

No point in hiding the fact we're probably the worst region in the UK for snow next to SW England.

As for the 'event' at the end of the week, it doesn't take a genius to see that it's a rain event for us.......

[HotCuppa]

Don't know what your on about mate, its cloudy here and temps are falling away along with dew points currently a -0.7 dew point and falling.

EDIT: -0.9 Dew point now and a temp of 2.9c

not being funny, your on higher ground (168M ASL) that should give you a clue why you are colder. By the time I made that post, the temperature and dew point where above freezing, the temperature is still above freezing. Temp dropped about 1 hour ago from what it was to what it is now.

Temperature now here. 4.3C and dewpoint of 0.8C. Airport backed away from snow and now to rain showers which looks more realistic.

Edited March 18, 2013 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

not being funny, your on higher ground (168M ASL) that should give you a clue why you are colder. By the time I made that post, the temperature and dew point where above freezing, the temperature is still above freezing. Temp dropped about 1 hour ago from what it was to what it is now.

Temperature now here. 4.3C and dewpoint of 0.8C. Airport backed away from snow and now to rain showers which looks more realistic.

Manchester Airport Temperature 3c DP-1c

C.S

[HotCuppa]

Manchester Airport Temperature 3c DP-1c

C.S

I should have said Liverpool airport, sorry for the confusion lol

Metar - EGGP 181707Z 1818/1918 07010KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 1818/1824 6000 RA BKN009 BECMG 1821/1824 VRB03KT BECMG 1900/1903 6000 PROB40 TEMPO 1903/1910 2000 -RA BR BKN006 BECMG 1909/1912 9999 BECMG 1912/1915 11010KT PROB30 TEMPO 1912/1918 7000 SHRA BKN014

Rain showers

Edited March 18, 2013 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

No point in hiding the fact we're probably the worst region in the UK for snow next to SW England.

As for the 'event' at the end of the week, it doesn't take a genius to see that it's a rain event for us.......

And it does not take a Genius to know the models,as proved tonight have not got a grip on the event as of yet

C.S

I should have said Liverpool airport, sorry for the confusion lol

Metar - EGGP 181707Z 1818/1918 07010KT 9999 SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 1818/1824 6000 RA BKN009 BECMG 1821/1824 VRB03KT BECMG 1900/1903 6000 PROB40 TEMPO 1903/1910 2000 -RA BR BKN006 BECMG 1909/1912 9999 BECMG 1912/1915 11010KT PROB30 TEMPO 1912/1918 7000 SHRA BKN014

Rain showers

Sorry HC no confusion

was just doing a comparison

C.S

[HotCuppa]

And it does not take a Genius to know the models,as proved tonight have not got a grip on the event as of yet

C.S

I think the problem is that here the temperature has been warmer than anticipated, and it's taken an age to go back down again, the dewpoints here, are indeed slowly responding to the changing conditions. However, it's fair to say, that in marginal conditions, it can completely go over us, as been seen numerous times in the past. While the models are still struggling mightily with what's going to happen in the next couple of days, the weather here, as this unique ability to default to rain rather than snow at the best of times (I am talking right on the Mersey not anywhere else), or I should say sleet or freezing rain. Not to say it won't snow, there needs to be a bigger shift southwards, than what we are seeing right now.

Higher elevations are the suspect areas like they have been all along, perhaps higher than than 150/200mtrs, rain is the likely outcome here during the next day or so..after that it's upto the snow gods. I just hope that the temperatures will dip below freezing or at least closer to it.

Strangely, the wind here as been rather calm, and in the sun it felt quite warm, certainly not t-shirt weather, but it did feel warm on the face and hands. .

Edited March 18, 2013 by HotCuppa

[cheshire snow]

Just heard a report and i dont know how reliable it is,however METO about to issue a red warning for parts

Of Scotland with upto 50cm of snow over the highest ground.......WOW

C.S