North West England Regional Discussion 17th March 2013>

[dodge]

So if you don't get it Friday you will probably end up with it on Saturday? Hope it doesn't fizzle out and die a death. We had a similar setup early in the winter which only brought noteworthy snowfall to southern parts of NW i.e. Cheshire, it lost strength the further north it got. I always feel North East of Manchester will be on the right side of marginal in these setups, but the only problem is will the precipitation actually get here?

Edited March 20, 2013 by dodgeredee

[Backtrack]

Wait for the 12z to ramp. Should the 06z verify expect an amber or even red warning from the Met Office...

[Snow free zone]

So if you don't get it Friday you will probably end up with it on Saturday? Hope it doesn't fizzle out and die a death. We had a similar setup early in the winter which only brought noteworthy snowfall to southern parts of NW i.e. Cheshire, it lost strength the further north it got. I always feel North East of Manchester will be on the right side of marginal in these setups, but the only problem is will the precipitation actually get here?

Have to agree unfortunately, although we have seen a N shift in the precip forecast over the past few days (friday was shown to be dry here yesterday) models do tend to shift these things south the closer we get as they tend to under estimate the effect of the cold air.

Yet another case of who'd be a forecaster - looks like a nightmare for them, areas to the south of the cold could end up being under water, those in the middle stuck under snow and those to the north sitting under dry sunny skies. 20 miles here or there makes all the difference. Regardless of whether it snows or not will be interesting to see how the forecasts pan out over the next 2 days.

Edited March 20, 2013 by Snow free zone

[WillinGlossop]

Cheshire/ Gtr Manchester and Merseyside would get an absolute pasting if the 06z GFS verifies 20-25cm of snow widely by Saturday

Will the N. West see a rare red warning even??

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?day=2&zipcode=#.UUmck3wgGSM ouch.....

[R.P. McMurphy]

http://www.metcheck....e=#.UUmck3wgGSM ouch.....

Yep, thats just been updated to the latest 06Z Harmonie Model which is quite accurate from MetCheck I have found. Lets wait and see, as others have said I have seen this pattern before, and it fizzled out. Maybe winter will go out with a huge bang.

[Troubleatmill]

Can't ever remember being on the "right side" of marginal here. Haven't had much to shout about during the winter, lets see if we can manage a decent spell of snow in spring.

Totally agree mate, has it ever happend??, always look at the lampost and see the inevitable rain lol, and your right, apart from a small dusting we havnt been as lucky as other areas...its the M6 east / west devide :s

[Brass_Monkeys]

http://www.metcheck....e=#.UUmck3wgGSM ouch.....

Just typed Wigan into the location box, added up the predicted cm's and got 24.5cm over the duration of Friday and Saturday!

I would be amazed if we ended up anywhere near that amount. I'm still not 100% confident we'll see settling snow as yet, never mind 20+ cm falls.

Would be a nice bang indeed if it happens.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Latest warnings are out. Looks like we will be upgraded to Amber tomorrow. Potentially Red on Friday depending on the runs going forward.

Just typed Wigan into the location box, added up the predicted cm's and got 24.5cm over the duration of Friday and Saturday!

I would be amazed if we ended up anywhere near that amount. I'm still not 100% confident we'll see settling snow as yet, never mind 20+ cm falls.

Would be a nice bang indeed if it happens.

They are quite unpredictable, but for my location it shows 35CM haha! Not going to happen.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Brilliant updated warning for NW England. 10cm with potentially 'much more' in some areas.

The warning also talks about a stalled front for 24 to 36 hours.

Edited March 20, 2013 by CreweCold

[SparkleS]

Crikey bobs, i see we are orange from that link fir the meto

[Snow free zone]

Totally agree mate, has it ever happend??, always look at the lampost and see the inevitable rain lol, and your right, apart from a small dusting we havnt been as lucky as other areas...its the M6 east / west devide :s

As always will still be wondering here 6 hrs away from it actually happening. Gut feeling ..... if we are to miss out it'll be due to the precip not getting this far north as happened earlier on this year. Seen alot of firsts this winter, snow on the Fylde coast whilst avoiding us being one of them !

Met office update looks "promising" though. Dare I say things seem to be looking up.

[pip22]

Just typed Wigan into the location box, added up the predicted cm's and got 24.5cm over the duration of Friday and Saturday!

I would be amazed if we ended up anywhere near that amount. I'm still not 100% confident we'll see settling snow as yet, never mind 20+ cm falls.

Would be a nice bang indeed if it happens.

Mine is expected about 20cm. that is great!

[SparkleS]

Brilliant my parents are comingback from Eastbourne on friday by coach!

[Brass_Monkeys]

Latest warnings are out. Looks like we will be upgraded to Amber tomorrow. Potentially Red on Friday depending on the runs going forward.

They are quite unpredictable, but for my location it shows 35CM haha! Not going to happen.

All within 36hrs now but for the Northwest 36hrs is still firmly in the realms of FI!

If things are looking the same by the morning I'll start to be a bit more confident.

Remember the last time the region was placed under an Amber Warning, I believe it was around 36 hrs from the event (maybe less) and most of the region was removed completely from the Warning Area!

Edited March 20, 2013 by Brass_Monkeys

[Chess01]

Me and crewe could get a second pasting of winter . Bet crew is bouncing of the walls with the way this winter has gone

[Cheshire Freeze]

Me and crewe could get a second pasting of winter . Bet crew is bouncing of the walls with the way this winter has gone

It's about time TBH! haha

[Chess01]

It's about time TBH! haha

how much are we talking if the 6z verifies and would any shifts put us out of the snow and into the rain

[Cheshire Freeze]

how much are we talking if the 6z verifies and would any shifts put us out of the snow and into the rain

If GFS 6z was close to the mark then 150m+ would be seeing 15-25cm of snow IMO, under 150m it would be closer to 10-15cm. A shift north would see the snow turn to rain/the situation would be more marginal. We could afford a shift south and still be looking at those totals.

[Chess01]

If GFS 6z was close to the mark then 150m+ would be seeing 15-25cm of snow IMO, under 150m it would be closer to 10-15cm. A shift north would see the snow turn to rain/the situation would be more marginal. We could afford a shift south and still be looking at those totals.

ahh all gravy then . Lets hope its stays put . I would be happy with 10cm to end winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

'The public should be aware of the likelihood of a spell of difficult and disruptive wintry weather, with impacts on travel and, perhaps, on power supplies'

[Ian Brown]

Me and crewe could get a second pasting of winter . Bet crew is bouncing of the walls with the way this winter has gone

We just need things to stay as they are - but they never do ! As predicted the METO have revised the warnings, and we are in the comedy semi-erection and balls zone.

[swainclubber]

bring it on, looking very good indeed

[Brass_Monkeys]

We just need things to stay as they are - but they never do ! As predicted the METO have revised the warnings, and we are in the comedy semi-erection and balls zone.

A very delicate position to be in IMBY nestled in the testes.

[jam2010]

I am trying not to ramp or get excited I rember the last time Manchester was iin the amber we got nothing. This time it is a little different and I've got Evreything crossed for this one.

[R.P. McMurphy]

We just need things to stay as they are - but they never do ! As predicted the METO have revised the warnings, and we are in the comedy semi-erection and balls zone.

Hahahaha. The post of the Winter for me.