South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion 17th March 2013 18:00>

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Convective weather thoughts for today:

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2646729

Maybe some hail and a few more rumbles?

maybe.. but compared to yesterday.. we had sun shining in the morning which probs helped..

[Coast]

maybe.. but compared to yesterday.. we had sun shining in the morning which probs helped..

Sun has just come out here in Benny HIll

[Downpour]

A warm front?

Yes I'm baffled by her forecast, as lovely as she is...

[Snowangel-MK]

Morning all,

Bit overcast here this morning but no fog or frost - it's Milton Keynes birthday today.....

March 19 1964: This day almost half a century ago saw the blueprint for Milton Keynes revealed was designated as a new town in 1967, and had a grid system road network built similar to that of various U.S. cities.At the time it was claimed the new town 'in the rural heart of North Bucks' would eventually be home to 250,000 people.

...it's still not quite a city but it's not the concrete jungle most people expect when they come here for the first time !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fw3dVHkNRQ

[Guest archiesmummy]

Morning all, I was confused by the forecasts this morning, my met office app says 10c and rain for Friday but as Coast said when he kept us abreast of the situation this morning not sure where that makes snow!

Even on the written bit of the met office they mention snow but their pictures show rain!

Confused.com

Have good day and keep fingers crossed for snow if that's your thing, otherwise its gonna rain!

[Simonl]

A warm front?

lol a warm smile certainly

[Simonl]

Morning all, I was confused by the forecasts this morning, my met office app says 10c and rain for Friday but as Coast said when he kept us abreast of the situation this morning not sure where that makes snow!

Even on the written bit of the met office they mention snow but their pictures show rain!

Confused.com

Have good day and keep fingers crossed for snow if that's your thing, otherwise its gonna rain!

This winter has been somewhat crazy really. that last low that went through the channel I really thought would deliver to all of our region, we didn't see a single flake to speak of and as we know it dived through the channel islands....Now we have another bite of the cherry and the north/north east will see snow...we get the rain....I HATE cold rain. I would say that if we miss the snow, let us have some nice spring like temperatures at least. Greedy North lol

Sorry to whinge.....I'll just collect the toys that I have cast out of my pram lol!!!

[Tamara]

Morning all, I was confused by the forecasts this morning, my met office app says 10c and rain for Friday but as Coast said when he kept us abreast of the situation this morning not sure where that makes snow!

Even on the written bit of the met office they mention snow but their pictures show rain!

Confused.com

Have good day and keep fingers crossed for snow if that's your thing, otherwise its gonna rain!

I'm not sure we will see much if any snow through the rest of this week, except perhaps a little in the further north of the region, but there is some consistency for possibilities by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week as another brisk easterly sets up that synoptically has a lot of similarities to the one a week or so ago. With these upper temps and the air coming off a cold continent then dewpoints would be low and would support snow with any undercutting low from the south west

Edited March 19, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Tim Bland]

Met office forecaster on BBC 3 counties radio going for persistent sleet / snow on Fri / sat. Could still be a few suprises. They have access to twice as much data as anyone on here so wouldnt dismiss it just yet. Although granted the best chances are for the north of the region.

[Tamara]

Met office forecaster on BBC 3 counties radio going for persistent sleet / snow on Fri / sat. Could still be a few suprises. They have access to twice as much data as anyone on here so wouldnt dismiss it just yet. Although granted the best chances are for the north of the region.

I think that some kind of rain to sleet and wet snow scenario is possible as the colder air to the north starts to dig south as the weekend arrives, and thus counties to the north of London may see a little snow as this clears south. But it looks like any really cold air will arrive a day or so later (if it does indeed arrive this far south)

[Neilsouth]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fw3dVHkNRQ

"Diversity"

Oh how they love that word, it makes the uk seem... so... amazing

not

[Coast]

The MetO/BBC are sticking their necks out a little for our patch considering pretty much all the current output I can see has it in the counties above us. They aren't usually so bold this far away, so maybe they have evidence that we don't or are just looking at it from a different angle?

Please don't get our hopes up for an hour of wet sleet or a brief flurry in EA though eh?

[Tom Montalbano]

I'm not sure we will see much if any snow through the rest of this week, except perhaps a little in the further north of the region, but there is some consistency for possibilities by the end of the weekend and into the start of next week as another brisk easterly sets up that synoptically has a lot of similarities to the one a week or so ago. With these upper temps and the air coming off a cold continent then dewpoints would be low and would support snow with any undercutting low from the south west

Yes, Tamara, another amazing overnight run from European Coldies Massive, Well Freezin (Like,innit!) Oh dear, I've woke up very Sarrf East London like, (Its amazing how many times locals can fit "like", into a sentence).

Give me a few weeks and I'll be very N.W.Kent, promise!

I digress, said it before but its a great pity that this extent of northern blocking didnt occur a month or so ago, a very wintry Feb. would've resulted!

Yours, elocutionarily challenged,

Tom.

Edited March 19, 2013 by TomSE20

[Tim Bland]

Below is the current Meto forecast for the area from north London to the Wash (East Anglia basicaly) What Im suprised about is they dont even use the words rain or sleet and go for all snow!

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Frosty start on Thursday with light winds. From late Thursday through to Saturday becoming windy. Cold each day. Isolated snow showers initially, then spells of more persistent snow from Friday.

[Bogman]

What sort of rainfall totals are we looking at in this area, whatever falls out of the sky, over Friday/Saturday?

Anyone got a scobby?

Thanks in advance.

[Tamara]

Below is the current Meto forecast for the area from north London to the Wash (East Anglia basicaly) What Im suprised about is they dont even use the words rain or sleet and go for all snow!

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Frosty start on Thursday with light winds. From late Thursday through to Saturday becoming windy. Cold each day. Isolated snow showers initially, then spells of more persistent snow from Friday.

I'm thinking that their data must reflect conditions for snow better than the modelling we see at present, with the dewpoints conduisive along with persistence of precipitation cutting into increasingly colder air resulting in the evaporating cooling mechanism coming into place. You just might well have some fun

Edited March 19, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Coast]

You just might well have some fun

I'm still tempted to think that you and I might not though Tamara?

[Tamara]

I'm still tempted to think that you and I might not though Tamara?

Oh yes, I agree about the end of this week for us here - but I'm just thinking about why the METO may be suggesting snow for the north of the region

If (and it is an if) we have any chance of snow for the southern part of the region then it may come by the start of next week, but that is a little way off for sure, especially with this pattern which is something of a loose cannon to predict

Edited March 19, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Keraunic]

Mornin each. Well, after a weekend without my beloved iPad........I'm back! My charger was kaput; thank God it wasn't the battery.

Anyway, it's dull and overcast in Norwich today. A far cry from yesterday's lovely taste of Spring.

Have a fab day, all.

[Coast]

Mornin each. Well, after a weekend without my beloved iPad........I'm back! My charger was kaput; thank God it wasn't the battery.

Morning K!

I have one of these for my Galaxy Tab 2 for when I go travelling, charge it up and you get about 2 more charges from flat for a tablet or 4 ish for a smartphone (it has a USB outlet, so almost universal)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/EasyAcc-12000mAh-External-Universal-Blackberry/dp/B0098EO61S/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1363691746&sr=8-2

[Steve C]

Morning all.

Another cloudy day here today. Needless to say my comet spotting hopes went up in smoke (or should I say the clouds) yesterday evening.

Just watching that rain off the east coast and hoping it doesn't impact my area too much. It definitely doesn't have the feel of a convective day here either - maybe due to the proximity of the more organised rain, even though a heavy shower potential was forecast for Essex on the drive in to work.

For those getting sick of the cold, it's worth remembering that the average maximum temperatures go up by about 3C a month from now, from a base of about 10C in mid March. To achieve really cold days becomes increasingly difficult.

[Coast]

If (and it is an if) we have any chance of snow for the southern part of the region then it may come by the start of next week, but that is a little way off for sure, especially with this pattern which is something of a loose cannon to predict

Well we're getting an 'insiders' view now:

As of last night they favoured a consensus between GFS and MOGREPS into trend period, given good agreement between them, but a 'nod' towards EC longer-term solution. Update on 00z suites due imminently.

Morning all.

Morning Steve, that tan worn off yet? :lol:

[Steve C]

Morning Steve, that tan worn off yet?

Seems to be okay still, or it might just be a yellowish tinge due to too much alcohol consumption last week?

Edited March 19, 2013 by Steve C

[Tamara]

Morning all.

Another cloudy day here today. Needless to say my comet spotting hopes went up in smoke (or should I say the clouds) yesterday evening.

Just watching that rain off the east coast and hoping it doesn't impact my area too much. It definitely doesn't have the feel of a convective day here either - maybe due to the proximity of the more organised rain, even though a heavy shower potential was forecast for Essex on the drive in to work.

For those getting sick of the cold, it's worth remembering that the average maximum temperatures go up by about 3C a month from now, from a base of about 10C in mid March. To achieve really cold days becomes increasingly difficult.

Hello Steve The convective chances look to be heading westwards to that side of our region and more especially into the neighbouring SW/S region.

I think as long as that remarkably intense cold pool stays to our north east then the continent will stay with low dewpoints and surface cold instead of the usual rapid upticks we can see at this time of year when surface conditions can change dramatically in a short period of time over a large landmass such as Europe. With the continuing pattern of blocking to our north and low pressure disrupting south eastwards then taking all these ingredients mentioned together, then it makes it a lot easier than usual for properly cold conditions to be achieved despite the ever lengthening days.

Usually by this time any late wintry spell is dependant on incursions directly from the arctic north of here rather than NE Europe and Russia Whatever ones wishes as Spring progresses, this is quite a remarkable month for sure!

[Keraunic]

Morning K!

I have one of these for my Galaxy Tab 2 for when I go travelling, charge it up and you get about 2 more charges from flat for a tablet or 4 ish for a smartphone (it has a USB outlet, so almost universal)

http://www.amazon.co.uk/EasyAcc-12000mAh-External-Universal-Blackberry/dp/B0098EO61S/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1363691746&sr=8-2

Thanks for that, Coast. I'll bare that in mind.