Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Thundery wintry showers]

I recall that back in the 1990s I considered myself a heat-hater (though in hindsight, I often underestimated how well I coped in the heat) and it seemed that media forecasts/articles (with the exception of the BBC's) generally raved over temperatures in the high 20s and low 30s.  Nowadays, I generally welcome temperatures in the mid to high 20s, but it seems that there is far more of the "such temperatures should not be welcomed because they cause extra disruption and inconvenience and loss of life" stance out there- I just can't win lol!

 

For most of those in businesses hoping for a minimum of disruption, people commuting to poorly air-conditioned offices in rush hour traffic or on the stuffy London Underground, shift workers having to sleep during the daytime and outdoor workers having to exert themselves, I can see partly cloudy and 21C being preferable to 27C and sunny.  I can see the opposite being true for most of those after some sunbathing, sitting outside on an evening or going for a leisurely evening stroll.  Our society places a lot more value on work/business and safety than on personal enjoyment so that would certainly promote partly cloudy and 21C- but that said, there are still plenty of media articles out there that rave about hot weather.

 

It is certainly looking like the weather is set to become more "normal" over the coming weeks but the traditional westerly type with the north-south split and an emphasis on frontal rainfall still looks set to be at least a week away.

Edited August 2, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Milhouse]

The GEFS mean is moving away from its hideously cool and wet outlook in FI that its been showing for quite some time.

 

[J10]

I recall that back in the 1990s I considered myself a heat-hater (though in hindsight, I often underestimated how well I coped in the heat) and it seemed that media forecasts/articles (with the exception of the BBC's) generally raved over temperatures in the high 20s and low 30s.  Nowadays, I generally welcome temperatures in the mid to high 20s, but it seems that there is far more of the "such temperatures should not be welcomed because they cause extra disruption and inconvenience and loss of life" stance out there- I just can't win lol!

 

For most of those in businesses hoping for a minimum of disruption, people commuting to poorly air-conditioned offices in rush hour traffic or on the stuffy London Underground, shift workers having to sleep during the daytime and outdoor workers having to exert themselves, I can see partly cloudy and 21C being preferable to 27C and sunny.  I can see the opposite being true for most of those after some sunbathing, sitting outside on an evening or going for a leisurely evening stroll.  Our society places a lot more value on work/business and safety than on personal enjoyment so that would certainly promote partly cloudy and 21C- but that said, there are still plenty of media articles out there that rave about hot weather.

 

It is certainly looking like the weather is set to become more "normal" over the coming weeks but the traditional westerly type with the north-south split and an emphasis on frontal rainfall still looks set to be at least a week away.

 

Apart from the frontal rainfall for earlier today and tomorrow.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Quite right- I'd thought that there may be some brighter interludes mixed in given the high convective available potential energy outputs, but for most of us it's turned out to be ordinary frontal rain really.

[johnholmes]

The burst of rain/showers prior to 1500 must have had convection in it judging by a brief rainfall rate of over 17mm p hour. Also there are Cu 2 tops all around me and some blue patches. Whether it was the front/trough associated with the low slowly transferring ENE I am not sure. Certainly a good deal of sferics on the Net Wx radar since about 1330?

 

Both the actual Watnall skew-t and the 12z prediction for Doncaster show deep convection is a real possibility, tops to 30-35,000ft, more espcially on the prediction as the actual is quite dry through a fair depth at middle levels.

Edited August 5, 2013 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

what a 'dead' day it is today... well at least its not raining... but wheres this 'average' or 'useable' weather we were promised? its not likely to break the 20c barrier today, under grey calm skies.

 

how insipid.

[TootyFruity]

It's an absolute cracking day in Ashbourne lovely weather was slightly overcast this morning the sun kept cracking through but it's been lovely this afternoon . Can't grumble .

[Bottesford]

Yeah today is just mank - grey all day and not feeling warm at any point. Finally its cleared - at 7pm. Whole lot of good that is - just means a overly cool night ahead which I really don't want!

It's just not warm enough at the moment - the familiar "ohh I'm cold" coming from her slamming the door whenever I pop out to the garden. Just not the same when outside is divided away from inside...

[Milhouse]

Its not looking as interesting as last August thats for sure. But in comparison to the low pressure dominated August of 2011 and the relentless northwesterly August of 2010 its looking quite good.

[mushymanrob]

Its not looking as interesting as last August thats for sure. But in comparison to the low pressure dominated August of 2011 and the relentless northwesterly August of 2010 its looking quite good.

 

cant see this month being any different from recent augusts... ok we had 31c on aug 1st, but theres no hope of getting 25c or above for the bulk of the country (as things stand). if this continues this august could end up being worse then some other recent ones... the atlantic is expected to kick in proper in 2 days time, all the charts then point to a mobile unsettled spell.

Edited August 7, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Milhouse]

cant see this month being any different from recent augusts... ok we had 31c on aug 1st, but theres no hope of getting 25c or above for the bulk of the country (as things stand). if this continues this august could end up being worse then some other recent ones... the atlantic is expected to kick in proper in 2 days time, all the charts then point to a mobile unsettled spell.

 

Theres nothing like this showing though. And this was in the best summer of recent times.

 

Edited August 7, 2013 by Milhouse

[Evening thunder]

Been a lovely 2 days here, today almost my perfect summers day, max 23.3c, and warm right on the coast with plenty of sunshine and interesting convective cumulus through the afternoon or evening (but showing no signs of spreading out and never blocking the sun for too long).

[Summer Sun]

cant see this month being any different from recent augusts... ok we had 31c on aug 1st, but theres no hope of getting 25c or above for the bulk of the country (as things stand). if this continues this august could end up being worse then some other recent ones... the atlantic is expected to kick in proper in 2 days time, all the charts then point to a mobile unsettled spell.

 

The Atlantic is still very quiet on today's runs

 

No Atlantic storms is sight thankfully

 

Edited August 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

cant see this month being any different from recent augusts... ok we had 31c on aug 1st, but theres no hope of getting 25c or above for the bulk of the country (as things stand). if this continues this august could end up being worse then some other recent ones... the atlantic is expected to kick in proper in 2 days time, all the charts then point to a mobile unsettled spell.

If this post was being posted on 25th August looking forward to the remaining week of the month i'd believe it.Butsaying it with 3 weeks of the month left seems a bit premature.Who knows another week from now? The Azores high could still make another visit. It's been 'teasing' on some of the model runs on and off for a few days now.You never know.

[mushymanrob]

If this post was being posted on 25th August looking forward to the remaining week of the month i'd believe it.Butsaying it with 3 weeks of the month left seems a bit premature.Who knows another week from now? The Azores high could still make another visit. It's been 'teasing' on some of the model runs on and off for a few days now.You never know.

 

... true, the azh could still build in and deliver another hot sunny spell.... but theres no tangible sign of it, apart from the unsupported gfs. it will not happen for at least a week, leaving only 2 weeks left of august. the point is the pattern is moving away from that scenario... the anomaly charts do not give any hope out to day ten and beyond.

 

ill get excited when there is something to get excited about, but hoping something will evolve when theres nothing showing is a waste of energy imho.

 

yes millhouse, this august isnt as bad as some others, true, that was lazy and misleading of me not to make that clear. but in 07 i had three days of 25c+ in august... so far ive had 1, and as things stand ill not be getting another ( )

 

dont forget guys...i love heat, i want heat, it can be 30c+ all summer for me, but ill not hope nor ramp anything that simply isnt there or is unlikely to be there.

Edited August 8, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Mini tiger]

cant see this month being any different from recent augusts... ok we had 31c on aug 1st, but theres no hope of getting 25c or above for the bulk of the country (as things stand). if this continues this august could end up being worse then some other recent ones... the atlantic is expected to kick in proper in 2 days time, all the charts then point to a mobile unsettled spell.

[Mini tiger]

Well it was 25 yesterday afternoon here and 25 forecast for today too. Clear blue skies. Better than forecsast. With just under 8 weeks of summer left if it carries on like this ill be very happy . Could do with a little bit of rain as the soil is still parched.

[Bottesford]

Clear skies here too today but 11.2c night makes it feel far from summary in evenings/mornings. It was predicted (by BBC) to fall to 13c last night which would be ok... 11c though is more September than August! 

Hopefully we hit a higher max today with 23c predicted which is very nice indeed. 16c predicted for tonight - much better.

[cobbett]

Matt Hugo very confident of no return to summer weather for the first half of august..

 

"Low pressure is forecast to remain an influential feature of the weather throughout the first half of August and there is quite high confidence in this prediction"

 

We shall see, but don't think his summer forecast is panning out too well at the moment !

I occasionally have a look at Matts twitters and even today it is still on the unrelenting unsettled theme for the next week (and rest of august) and telling all that  there is no settled weather to come. I find this extraordinary as so far this august the weather has beeen excellent with only one day of heavy rain last monday (albeit i am in SE). Looking at the models today I would say there is a reasonable chance of some fine and possibly warm weather to come next week, but no hint of that with Matt's interpretation !!

[Bristawl Si]

 

I occasionally have a look at Matts twitters and even today it is still on the unrelenting unsettled theme for the next week (and rest of august) and telling all that  there is no settled weather to come. I find this extraordinary as so far this august the weather has beeen excellent with only one day of heavy rain last monday (albeit i am in SE). Looking at the models today I would say there is a reasonable chance of some fine and possibly warm weather to come next week, but no hint of that with Matt's interpretation !!

Yes, this use of the word "unsettled"...well, i find it unsettling!Where does he get the "unrelenting unsettled" from? It's been a mixed bag, at worst, down here since August began.I think we've had a couple of days of rain, a couple of showery days and the rest have been dry, with one v hot and clear blue skies day last Thursday. Even yesterday afternoon turned out decent. It's been quite pleasant temp-wise as well.

[mushymanrob]

Well it was 25 yesterday afternoon here and 25 forecast for today too. Clear blue skies. Better than forecsast. With just under 8 weeks of summer left if it carries on like this ill be very happy . Could do with a little bit of rain as the soil is still parched.

 

pleased you are the exception and get the heat.. according to accuweather you got 24 yesterday, not bickering over a degree or so... but you are expected 20c today, not 25c..

 

btw theres 3 weeks of sumer left... not 8!

Edited August 8, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Frank Trough]

i'm looking forward to getting the final statistics for this summer for my neck of the woods when it's over. My impression has been that it's been excellent - fabulous in fact. Unrelentingly brilliant - even when it hasn't been sunny it's been warm and dry. Estuaries running clear, loads of fish showing and not fishing sessions cancelled due to apocalyptic weather. 

 

Why has it been continually tinged with disappointment on the model thread?! it's so wonderfully British. First there wasn't going to be any spring at all and then summer was written off in June.  Then as it started to get better the good weather was "all in FI...remains to be seen.....believe it when i see it....." posts flooded in. Then the negative posts disappeared during the first week of July (were they all out enjoying the weather that was never going to happen?) until the GFS suddenly showed a breakdown (accompanied by the anomaly charts lest we forget). These were then touted around and we were warned to take note "even though it's not what many want to see".....then the breakdown was delayed for another two weeks but any possibility of low temperatures in northeast Scotland were pointed out when they occurred at T+168 on the GFS 06Z. 

 

And now people have their ar5e in their hands because the azores high might not ridge fully across the country before the end of August (3 weeks away)......

 

dear me. 

 

I can't wait for next summer which statistically is likely to be worse than this one.......

 

can we write it off yet? 

[Bottesford]

You're right it has been decent but do remember not everywhere has been as sunny & warm as Bournemouth...

Large parts of June were affected either by North Sea low cloud or by NEly winds making it feel distinctly chilly. Dry yes (well apart from my wedding weekend!) but warm definitely not for eastern areas.

July was a superb month in general although again low cloud did come to spoil the party from time to time.

August so far has been pretty good too although gone a bit chilly these past few days and certainly more cloud than in July. 

Agree though its been a good summer with several weeks spent in shorts which I've not done since 2006. Today too would be a shorts day (24.3c) but I didn't go for that as it was very cool this morning and other days this week have been fairly cool.

[Frank Trough]

You're right it has been decent but do remember not everywhere has been as sunny & warm as Bournemouth...

Large parts of June were affected either by North Sea low cloud or by NEly winds making it feel distinctly chilly. Dry yes (well apart from my wedding weekend!) but warm definitely not for eastern areas.

July was a superb month in general although again low cloud did come to spoil the party from time to time.

August so far has been pretty good too although gone a bit chilly these past few days and certainly more cloud than in July. 

Agree though its been a good summer with several weeks spent in shorts which I've not done since 2006. Today too would be a shorts day (24.3c) but I didn't go for that as it was very cool this morning and other days this week have been fairly cool.

 

 

 

move to the balmy south coast then!!!! it's ALWAYS gorgeous down here! just how it should be in summer...

 

(of course you're right...i jest!)

 

The rest of the country will get their own back this winter when we have to put up with the "rain on coasts" scenario all winter while everybody else is digging themselves out! 

Edited August 8, 2013 by Pharaoh Clutchstraw

[mushymanrob]

You're right it has been decent but do remember not everywhere has been as sunny & warm as Bournemouth...

Large parts of June were affected either by North Sea low cloud or by NEly winds making it feel distinctly chilly. Dry yes (well apart from my wedding weekend!) but warm definitely not for eastern areas.

July was a superb month in general although again low cloud did come to spoil the party from time to time.

August so far has been pretty good too although gone a bit chilly these past few days and certainly more cloud than in July. 

Agree though its been a good summer with several weeks spent in shorts which I've not done since 2006. Today too would be a shorts day (24.3c) but I didn't go for that as it was very cool this morning and other days this week have been fairly cool.

 

exactly!

 

pc was lucky in bournemouth, many of us were right to remain scepticle, even in the heatwave we here had 'that' weekend, where it was dull, overcast, light patchy drizzle in a stiff northeasterly... no doubt pc had a great time down sarf, sheltered by the midlands, but it wasnt a wall to wall heatfest for some that others had.

 

and the spell in early june might have been great for those in the west and on the south coast, it was very pleasant, but not as good as others got. its all very well for the lucky to make snide remarks about the others, but not everyone had it so good.

 

as for the heatwave breaking down... it went two weeks ago, a day of heavy torrential rain... we are left in nomans land where days might be nice, one or two were hot, we got 31c! for a few hours last thursday, but sunshine has been at a premium.

 

so paraoh clutchstraw, you get the prize for the most imby perspective on the summer! :lol: