Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Captain Shortwave]

Can't really count this as a good summers day, mid twenties at sites in the south west/south east and central and northern england.

Another good day

With the BBC going for 29C tomorrow, maybe we will break into the 30s again.

Edited August 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[mushymanrob]

thanks for those kind words peeps, i normally leave for a while as i cannot be bothered to compete with the winter mob as ive no fondness for cold , or at least looking for it. the technical thread john?...me?...lol.. c'mon i know my limits! im not going anywhere just yet, but my enthusiasm for the weather is never great in autumn, its not until feb i start to get more interested. so i expect ill become much quieter soon, which some will like, ill just see what transpires,.

 

tamara... yeah i know about aumun flowers...but i dont 'do' autumn! my garden is deliberately set out to maximise the summer experience. ill be metal detecting in autumn see...

Warm enough to beside the pool here Mushy, a sunny 25c.

 

oh i wish! 22c here but spotting with rain under overcast skies...

[Frosty.]

 

 

oh i wish! 22c here but spotting with rain under overcast skies...

Get's violin out

[johnholmes]

Can't really count this as a good summers day, mid twenties at sites in the south west/south east and central and northern england.

Another good day

With the BBC going for 29C tomorrow, maybe we will break into the 30s again.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?LANG=en&UP=0&R=310&TYP=tmax&ART=tabelle&LANG=en&DATE=1377187200&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&SORT=3&SI=mph&CEL=C&UD=0

 

some folk are never happy it seems, 2 on 27C and 2 on 26C and more on 25C 

[J10]

Can't really count this as a good summers day, mid twenties at sites in the south west/south east and central and northern england.

Another good day

With the BBC going for 29C tomorrow, maybe we will break into the 30s again.

It's a fantastic summer's day here. (yesterday we had the cloud and occasional spotting of rain)

 

On Tuesday, the BBC forecast was annoying saying that Wednesday was lovely weather and Thurday rubbish, it looks like this was the case for SE areas, but the polar opposite for western areas.

Edited August 22, 2013 by J10

[cheese]

It's a fantastic summer's day here. (yesterday we had the cloud and occasional spotting of rain)

 

On Tuesday, the BBC forecast was annoying saying that Wednesday was lovely weather and Thurday rubbish, it looks like this was the case for SE areas, but the polar opposite for western areas.

Ditto here. Today is MUCH better than yesterday.

[Milhouse]

i dislike this time of the year most... i dislike the weather, i dislike the season... why? because we have to go through autumn and winter before my fav seasons of spring and summer are here. its highly unlikely now that we will get a 'hot' spell, warm enough to enjoy the pool, and everything that goes with heat. the flowers are finishing, its over...

 

and thats what i get the feeling of off the latest runs. the ecm has joined the gfs in keeping the azh to our west. now it should be close enough to ensure alot of fine sunny mainly dry weather in post bank holiday, and thats not to be sniffed at!

 

oh...and im unlikely to be posting in here much now, i like looking for heat and warmth, i dislike the cold lovers party that invades this place in winter, hero worshiping cold rampers and getting scorned if one dares to disagree.

 

Well we still have the warmth but the heat may have to wait till next year. There is still the potential for warmth to persist for another month but i do get what you mean about the general decay that is witnessed at this time of year. The foul smell of manure spreading round here is a sure sign that Autumn is coming and is so different to the fresh fragrant aroma of late Spring. Still, it doesnt stop me liking days such as this though as it felt very warm today with a max of 24.3c. But like you i will slip away from the model discussion shortly as the interest in Atlantic storms and frosty nights increases.

[Bristawl Si]

Potentially another 6 weeks of 'Summer' down here - well that's how i look at things anyway.

August has been ok, but could've been better - there again could've been worse.

This week and thru the weekend was looking great a week ago but now looks mixed, although today has been fab.

Not a bad Summer all in - certainly better than last few years.

Edited August 22, 2013 by Bristle boy

[Bradowl]

I would say this summer as been only slightly better than average with July been by far the best for really hot sunny weather.

 

May was cool and quite wet at times, June was just about average along with this month.

 

I think we were getting use to the very wet summers that we have had over last few years which is making some people think we have had an exceptional summer when I don´t think it´s been anything like the summers of 1976 and 1983 which had weeks and weeks of hot sunny weather.

 

We also had a run of summers in early 1990´s which were warmer and sunny than average.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think Mushy often adds some much-needed balance to the model output area during the winter when many are only after cold/snow.  I think there are a fair number of members who love snow but are also interested in other types of weather and a greater sense of "balance" helps them to feel able to express themselves more.  I have to admit that if I had to name the most interesting or exciting spell of weather during last winter, that wild, wet, sunny Atlantic-driven last week of January would be right up there.

 

I do agree about the sense of decay at this time of year- the dark nights drawing in become particularly noticeable after mid-August- but the weather sometimes decays in fits and bursts and for a fair number of us much of Septembers 1999 and 2003 felt like an extension of summer.  The current model outputs aren't really screaming "autumn on its way!" to me either.

Edited August 22, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[J10]

bit early to have been on juice- I'll correct it ta mushy

 

never met him

why do I get more dyslectic as I get older, or is it simply I am unable to type properly or even spell properly anymore?

 

What's my excise than.

[Captain Shortwave]

It's not been a bad summer overall.

June was poor for my area and over the whole country was pretty average, but one has to realise that if the exceptionally cold March had not occurred then June probably would have been warmer and sunnier than average.

July was excellent, the fact that 2013 had the third warmest July on record speaks for itself.

August, looks like a slightly above average month temperature wise but nothing of real note after the first 2 days. Looks like August will go out on a high though.

[J10]

June was above average locally (and also for Wales) in terms of sunshine and rainfall was below average.

 

July was better than average for all 3 aspects warmth, dryness and Sunshine.

 

August will be wetter than average both locally and over Wales, it is likley to be slightly warmer than average, with sunshine levels close to average, could go either way depending on next week.

 

So Overall for Wales, sunshine is likely to be above average, temps above average, and rainfall probably below average, but with pockets above average.

 

edited for spelling.

Edited August 23, 2013 by J10

[cheese]

Summer will be duller than average here, even if August is average. Not significantly mind you - but both June and August were/will be below average. Warm - yes, lots of dry weather - yes, but sunny - no, absolutely not.

Edited August 22, 2013 by cheese

[hec1]

can't wait for the Atlantic train and then heavy disruptive snowfall and subzero temperatures !

[mushymanrob]

I would say this summer as been only slightly better than average with July been by far the best for really hot sunny weather.

 

May was cool and quite wet at times, June was just about average along with this month.

 

I think we were getting use to the very wet summers that we have had over last few years which is making some people think we have had an exceptional summer when I don´t think it´s been anything like the summers of 1976 and 1983 which had weeks and weeks of hot sunny weather.

 

We also had a run of summers in early 1990´s which were warmer and sunny than average.

 

i think you have a point... june and august were nothing special at all, in fact possibly slightly below par. ive had 0 'losses through drought' in my grass cutting services, in fact atm the grass is very long and horribly soft... not the mark of a 'good' summer. so whilst july was easily the best for 7 years, summer as a whole wasnt that good.

 

I think Mushy often adds some much-needed balance to the model output area during the winter when many are only after cold/snow.  I think there are a fair number of members who love snow but are also interested in other types of weather and a greater sense of "balance" helps them to feel able to express themselves more. 

 

thanks.. whether i bother or not to continue posting will depend upon my mood, and the level of hyperbole the coldies bring. it p's me off when some seasonal dork starts having a go just because i dont 'tow the line' in ramping up the cold or have the temerity to disagree with one of the gurus.. (there are two types, level headed like ns, and then theres the rampers )

[Milhouse]

If August finishes on 16.8c then that will mean a Summer CET of 16.23c. Since 1989 there have been 5 summers warmer than that. 1989, 1995, 1997, 2003 and 2006. 2004 would be the same and there would be 18 cooler summers including 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999 and 2005.

[mushymanrob]

If August finishes on 16.8c then that will mean a Summer CET of 16.23c. Since 1989 there have been 5 summers warmer than that. 1989, 1995, 1997, 2003 and 2006. 2004 would be the same and there would be 18 cooler summers including 1990, 1994, 1996, 1999 and 2005.

 

1990 cooler?... id take summer 1990 over summer 2013 anyday.

 

dont understand 1997 either as i have no recalection (sp?) of that summer being 'good'.  i guess higher overnight minima due to cloud (and rain?) would give a temp profile a boost.

 

this is why to me the cet means nothing... give me sunny warm afternoons anyday over warmer muggy nights.

 

to get a truer index of how good a summer is, surely rainfall days (not ammounts because a decent thunderstorm could produce a months worth in a couple of hours), sunshine levels, as well as mean max temps must be taken into account.

[stainesbloke]

1990 cooler?... id take summer 1990 over summer 2013 anyday.dont understand 1997 either as i have no recalection (sp?) of that summer being 'good'. i guess higher overnight minima due to cloud (and rain?) would give a temp profile a boost.this is why to me the cet means nothing... give me sunny warm afternoons anyday over warmer muggy nights.to get a truer index of how good a summer is, surely rainfall days (not ammounts because a decent thunderstorm could produce a months worth in a couple of hours), sunshine levels, as well as mean max temps must be taken into account.

Absolutely agree with your post. 1990 was a cracking summer that went on and on, loads of sunshine and a couple of violent overnight storms thrown in. Perfect This summer was lots better than the last 6, but really was a 3 week summer in July. The rest hasn't been anything special. Very good point about the CET, I find it quite misleading tbh.

[johnholmes]

The Manchester index uses that type of thing so I suggest those with rainfall and sunshine data use that. I have no sunshine data but do use the winter version which highlights those winters which have all the ingredients.

To be fair the CET can be found, I think with Max, Min and mean. Or at least 30 years of data, often longer, is available on the Met O site for many climat stations dotted around the UK, including Nottingham and perhaps Derby?

[Bradowl]

Well this is going to be another summers day written off.

After a night of torrential rain this morning is as dark as a morning in January.

I can't see much improvement looking at forecast for today.

Everything will become good though because there's an heatwave on way for this time next week.

[mushymanrob]

The Manchester index uses that type of thing so I suggest those with rainfall and sunshine data use that. I have no sunshine data but do use the winter version which highlights those winters which have all the ingredients.

To be fair the CET can be found, I think with Max, Min and mean. Or at least 30 years of data, often longer, is available on the Met O site for many climat stations dotted around the UK, including Nottingham and perhaps Derby?

 

think hucknall is my closest, met o one anyway...

[johnholmes]

think hucknall is my closest, met o one anyway...

you may find if you approach Met that they are prepared to let you have some of that data?

 

just thought it is not Hucknall I was thinking of, no idea about that although it used to be a Royals Royce airfield, but Watnall which is quite a long way from Derby (north side of Nottingham)

Edited August 24, 2013 by johnholmes

[mushymanrob]

you may find if you approach Met that they are prepared to let you have some of that data?

 

just thought it is not Hucknall I was thinking of, no idea about that although it used to be a Royals Royce airfield, but Watnall which is quite a long way from Derby (north side of Nottingham)

 

oops... yes watnall not hucknall.. lol

 

yeah theres nothing too local, i think my freinds records are the nearest to me, but no official.

Edited August 24, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Bottesford]

One better thing in summer is I can both keep up with the model thread and still have enough time to go to work and live a life! Not so in winter as it is so busy - and yes often with a poor signal to noise ratio comparatively.

Besides like some of you I loose interest in weather as we move out of summer (late Feb - early Sep being my preferred zone with May-July the peak of my interest). Obviously being admin I certainly try to keep up with things and when snow is actually looking likely I'll pay more interest. But hearing about how 'great' grey & nasty cold easterlies are? Not my bag... (proper clear sky, deep cold easterlies excepted!).