Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[William of Walworth]

Yes, I was checking the recent output and picked up on the idea of a  nice Sunday too. Thanks for that.

 

Maybe, just maybe, and there's still time,  Saturday's rain levels might downgrade too.

 

I spotted yer Jacks as well as Levs reference there J10!

[conor123]

It's really feeling like Autumn at the moment here, relentless 17c days with 95-100% cloudcover and just nothingness and another weekend of it to come this weekend, 8c last night, July and Summer in general really feels like a distant memory right now.

[Costa Del Fal]

It's really feeling like Autumn at the moment here, relentless 17c days with 95-100% cloudcover and just nothingness and another weekend of it to come this weekend, 8c last night, July and Summer in general really feels like a distant memory right now.

Thats Telford for you! :lol: Was a pleasant evening here actually again. Cool now though of course. All changes from tomorrow/thursday then much more so early next week so dont worry!

Edited August 13, 2013 by Blizzards

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Lovely morning here blue skies just took my bins inside there boiling already feels nice outside B)

[stainesbloke]

I'm similarly festival-going ..... Beautiful Days, near Exeter, that Levellers-organised bash -- from Thurs 15th to Mon 19th.Where are YOU going?<prays for acceptably low mud-levels for all festie goers ... as every year ... !!!!! >

Not heard of Beautiful Days, have you been before? I'm off to Rewind festival, just outside Henley on Thames (Berks/Oxon borders). It's the biggest 80s festival and its my 5th year going. 10 bands on Sat and 10 on Sun. Weather for Sat looking awful, Sun lots better but all in all not impressed by that low at all! Here's to a mud-free weekend

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Off topic i know but whats with all these thunderflies annoying little buggers

[conor123]

The 06z has a habit of going into it's own ramp mode (e.g 27-29c over us this time next week), and then the 12z always comes and brings us back down to earth.

Fingers crossed that pesky pointless shortwave ends up further north in the end! beyond that is still uncertain.

 

In terms of current ramptastic, ideal charts the 12z GEM is brilliant with the shortwave further north and hot, thundery bank holiday.

Edited August 16, 2013 by conor123

[Milhouse]

Off topic i know but whats with all these thunderflies annoying little buggers

 

I think this summer has been made all the more better by the relative absence of them. At least here there are only a fraction of the amount in recent summers.

[cheese]

Think this upcoming spell could be another western-biased one. Wouldn't be surprised if we ended up being plagued by cloud like we were on some days in July while almost everywhere else was sunny. Easterly winds are utter C R A P and should be banned outside of winter.

Edited August 16, 2013 by cheese

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Think this upcoming spell could be another western-biased one. Wouldn't be surprised if we ended up being plagued by cloud like we were on some days in July while almost everywhere else was sunny. Easterly winds are utter C R A P and should be banned outside of winter.

I dont think it would be to bad the sea isnt as cold as earlier in summer

[Captain Shortwave]

I dont think it would be to bad the sea isnt as cold as earlier in summer

Keep the winds south of east and hence off the continent and we should be fine, plus there will be less of a cooling effect.

12Z ECM, no thanks, that has north easterly winds, thanks mr shortwave 

[cheese]

A SE wind is our hottest direction, but a direct easterly or north-easterly wind is completely useless in every sense of the word. I cannot think of one positive thing an easterly wind would bring. A westerly wind would be far better for more people as westerly winds + high pressure setups tend to not bring low cloud to western areas, but sunny conditions for all (well, that was the case in July). 

I dont think it would be to bad the sea isnt as cold as earlier in summer

Good point - I hope the warmer seas make a difference. We're doing OK for sunshine this month, but any more dull days like today and it may turn this month dull.

Edited August 17, 2013 by cheese

[Milhouse]

All looking good tonight after my brief scan of the models. It's been a lovely summer so far and were in for another spell of high pressure to top it all off.

[conor123]

Massive downgrades for the warm spell today, a far cry from the 26-30c Bank Holiday charts of yesterday.

[J10]

For the most part looklng damp rather than wet.

 

Most of the rain forecast looking drizzly as opposed to heavy, Saturday looking the exception at this stage.

 

However there is the chance that later on Sunday, festival goers may be singing What a Beautiful Day, and might even be thinking about the weather at the time. 

 

Although today wasn't too bad, I would suspect that wet was proably a better adjective rather than damp.

[AWD]

Bit concerned with the early signs for the Bank Holiday weekend. Although it's looking warm, it's also looking rather wet at this early stage for my part of the world so the warmth will be irrelevant really.

Some settled days whilst I'm at work this week and then some wet weather when I'm off work at the weekend. Not really getting me that excited at the moment.

The one consolation is that we could have some thundery activity at least. A lengthy settled spell now appears unlikely but we still stand a chance of a lengthy warm/very warm spell.

Worth noting though they are two different things.

Edited August 18, 2013 by AWD

[Methuselah]

Bit concerned with the early signs for the Bank Holiday weekend. Although it's looking warm, it's also looking rather wet at this early stage for my part of the world so the warmth will be irrelevant really.

Some settled days whilst I'm at work this week and then some wet weather when I'm off work at the weekend. Not really getting me that excited at the moment.

The one consolation is that we could have some thundery activity at least. A lengthy settled spell now appears unlikely but we still stand a chance of a lengthy warm/very warm spell.

Worth noting though they are two different things.

Send some over here? It's as dry as a bone!

[J10]

Send some over here? It's as dry as a bone!

 

With pleasure.

 

June and July both had around 50% of rainfall, leading to bone dry conditions August had certainly exceeded that already.

[john pike]

http://modeles.meteo...un=12&runpara=0

 

snow on the 24th

 

and 185 % chance of snow on the 2nd

 

think gefs ensembles are having issues at present

[mushymanrob]

to quote johnny rotten

 

"ever had the feeling youve been had" ?

[Costa Del Fal]

C'mon mushy were still going to have some very warm temperatures. It's goings to be very useable, enjoyable and good for your business. I get the feeling because its not going to be 32c them this is going to equal automatic failure. This weekend is still changing loads and so I don't know why so many are approaching it with such certainty.

[mushymanrob]

C'mon mushy were still going to have some very warm temperatures. It's goings to be very useable, enjoyable and good for your business. I get the feeling because its not going to be 32c them this is going to equal automatic failure. This weekend is still changing loads and so I don't know why so many are approaching it with such certainty.

 

true... but many runs promised so much more... im not fussed about 30c+ that would be a bonus, but a widespread 25-7 for a week or more was the kind of set up so many posted charts would appear to have  suggested...

[Bradowl]

I'm wondering if this forthcoming heatwave is going to happen, local bbc forecaster just said tomorrow cloudy with chance of a shower and Wednesday cloudy with light rain.

After a sunny start this morning it soon clouded over and we've seen very little sunshine throughout day.

[Captain Shortwave]

true... but many runs promised so much more... im not fussed about 30c+ that would be a bonus, but a widespread 25-7 for a week or more was the kind of set up so many posted charts would appear to have  suggested...

Final nail in the coffin I think the GFS has just delivered

 

Huge flip by the control run and ensemble mean. Sigh, I thought we could have got something decent apart from a couple of warm days. I guess that's how things go.

Edited August 19, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[conor123]

I'm wondering if this forthcoming heatwave is going to happen, local bbc forecaster just said tomorrow cloudy with chance of a shower and Wednesday cloudy with light rain.After a sunny start this morning it soon clouded over and we've seen very little sunshine throughout day.

Echo this!

 

I've lost count of the amount of days in the past 2 weeks the GFS and BBC have forecast 20c+ and sunny spells the day before which have turned out grey and 17-18c, today being yet another with the disappointment set to continue here tomorrow and Wednesday while the rest of the Midlands climbs toward the mid 20's.