Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Milhouse]

So fed up of this mild weather. Only had one frost so far and the double figure nights have been common! Its so depressing when you go on the model thread and people go "no cold in sight". I think sometimes they enjoy winding us cold lovers up.What do you mean "going into" its been mild all of september and all of this month. Zzzzz

 

September was actually a tiny bit below average so it was not unusually warm at all. I dont post in the MOD now till next Spring so i dont really know whats been said but i cant see much cold around either for the forseeable future. Of course sudden switcharounds do happen though. Plenty of time for the cold to arrive through November and into December.

[Scorcher]

I find that strange. 35 miles down the road and there are leaves all over the place.

 

I didn't say there are no leaves on the ground here, I was replying to the idea that most trees have apparently lost all their leaves in Northern Ireland- a lot here are still pretty much covered in leaves, maybe I was wrong to say 'most'.

[smithyweather]

September is bound to be warmer smithy.

Patience-you are seeking cold too early.

Wait until November onwards when we have more chance of decent cold spells.

Posters in the model thread are generally saying what the models show and are not winding coldies up as you put it.

 

Chill out a bit mate.Grumbling about the model outputs wont alter what the weather does.

September does not have mostly double figure mins nor does October. Although it has cooled down at night double figure mins are well above average and it will warm up this week anyway. 

I don't want loads of snow i just want some normal October weather!!

Edited October 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[Summer Sun]

September does not have mostly double figure mins nor does October. Although it has cooled down at night double figure mins are well above average and it will warm up this week anyway. 

I don't want loads of snow i just want some normal October weather!!

 

Your going to get normal October weather over the next few weeks like everyone wet at times, mild and windy

[smithyweather]

September was actually a tiny bit below average so it was not unusually warm at all. I dont post in the MOD now till next Spring so i dont really know whats been said but i cant see much cold around either for the forseeable future. Of course sudden switcharounds do happen though. Plenty of time for the cold to arrive through November and into December.

The number of cloudy nights with double figure minimums was well above average this September! WELL above average. 

Your going to get normal October weather over the next few weeks like everyone wet at times, mild and windy

Not normal to have double figure mins.

[Captain Shortwave]

The number of cloudy nights with double figure minimums was well above average this September! WELL above average. 

Not normal to have double figure mins.

Average minima for September - 8.3C

October - 6.1C

So even in October it's just as likely to have double figure minima than it is to have a frost (Air temperatures 2C approx)

Even in December and January temperatures staying in doubles figures at night is not unusual if you have a south westerly pattern.

Also Autumn has a habit of being a rather cloudy season given the high likelihood of west/south westerly winds.

So nothing unusual about the weather really. Greenland blocking and northerlies are highly unusual at this time of year.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[smithyweather]

Yes average min for September is 8c but average min for October is just under 6c according to met office climate maps. 

 

But i'm going on past experience. 

 

2012 -http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/09-2012/39040.htm

2008 -http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/09-2008/39040.htm

This year -http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/09-2013/39040.htm

 

About 15 double digit mins in September.  Also more lower record mins for each month compared to this year. 

Edited October 15, 2013 by smithyweather

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Your going to get normal October weather over the next few weeks like everyone wet at times, mild and windy

 

Suit you then, you love the rain! outside summer especially

[Bottesford]

This kind of raw easterly weather isn't so normal for October but what's coming up looks much more normal - wind, rain & mild temperatures with air off the Atlantic - suits me this time of year!

 

Those complaining of the lack of cold - it is only October! Compare October cold in terms of April warmth - possible but generally not very common. And then think about this April - it was still below freezing during the first few days only returning to close to average mid month. Even then we stayed way below average until mid June when it finally warmed up. Perhaps if we hit christmas and its still mild then there's something to complain about! :lol:

[Skullzrulerz]

This kind of raw easterly weather isn't so normal for October but what's coming up looks much more normal - wind, rain & mild temperatures with air off the Atlantic - suits me this time of year!

 

Those complaining of the lack of cold - it is only October! Compare October cold in terms of April warmth - possible but generally not very common. And then think about this April - it was still below freezing during the first few days only returning to close to average mid month. Even then we stayed way below average until mid June when it finally warmed up. Perhaps if we hit christmas and its still mild then there's something to complain about!

You should read james madden latest post he may be right.

[smithyweather]

I have a feeling I am going to have to wait to December to see any snowFLAKES which is just plain depressing.

[Captain Shortwave]

You should read james madden latest post he may be right.

And I am going to win the lottery.........

without buying a ticket 

[Summer Sun]

You should read james madden latest post he may be right.

 

If thats the one about the ensembles going colder into November then he's wrong

 

http://null/TWO/ensembles/

 

Even Moscow is trending well above average from next week after there early blast of cold weather

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bobby]

I have a feeling I am going to have to wait to December to see any snowFLAKES which is just plain depressing.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Bobby

[Gaz1985]

If thats the one about the ensembles going colder into November then he's wrong

 

http://null/TWO/ensembles/

 

Even Moscow is trending well above average from next week after there early blast of cold weather

 

Indeed, looking very mild in Bucharest, Kiev, Helsinki, Warsaw and Berlin too. If these places arn't cold then we probably won't be unless we get potent northerly but even that looks unlikely.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Thundery wintry showers]

This October has so far been unusual for its lack of cold nights, but largely frost free Octobers are not unusual, indeed I can think of a few Octobers that were largely frost free but had a close to average mean temperature, most notably 2004.

 

It feels like the season hasn't been advancing much because September was near average to fairly cool and then we're having a warm October.  2001 was a particularly extreme case, when in some parts of the country, October was warmer than September had been, but snow showers then fell widely on the 8th and 9th November.

[Bottesford]

Thing is Oct only felt warm up to the 8th whereas after that it has felt quite cool with the wind, rain and next to zero sunshine. It is, of course, the mild nights that have meant a warm month so far. The season does look to be progressing though with the plant world changing colour or looking very tired or just dead. The rapid shortening in daylight hours too has made its mark - the feel from 16th Sept to now is quite different even with similar temperatures. 

 

Very much looking forward to the warmer and brighter weather - mild nights but with cold feeling sunless days is a waste of warmth!

[SnowObsessor90]

Personally I'd rather have this mild weather now rather than later, us coldies just have to just ride this one for time being and with any luck (in other words if the strat plays ball) the cold will arrive right on queue at some point in December

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Personally I'd rather have this mild weather now rather than later, us coldies just have to just ride this one for time being and with any luck (in other words if the strat plays ball) the cold will arrive right on queue at some point in December

Yes, it's better that way. Remember last year we got a cool Sept, Oct and Nov and then it turned mild mid Dec and over Christmas. Didn't feel cool enough to be properly festive. Let's hope for something more Xmas 09 or 10 this year and if that means having to endure a mild and wet autumn then so be it... Edited October 16, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Ian Brown]

I have a feeling I am going to have to wait to December to see any snowFLAKES which is just plain depressing.

You should see anything before December as a bonus and remember that Dec itself is usually the wettest and most zonal month.

[Bottesford]

Snow over xmas might look nice but is very disruptive for those of us who will now be travelling to/from home to see family. The real snow can wait till Jan when it don't matter anymore!

[smithyweather]

You should see anything before December as a bonus and remember that Dec itself is usually the wettest and most zonal month.

Its not a bonus. We always get November snow.

[MP-R]

November tends to be the most zonal month here. Rainfall amounts drop as the month progresses in December.

[Ian Brown]

Its not a bonus. We always get November snow.

 

You must be very young or have a poor memory - I very much doubt that to be the case.

[johnholmes]

best to look at the nearest Met station to see whether snow has fallen every year in November, say in the last 10 years?