Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Bottesford]

At least this wet period has fallen at the correct time of year this time round - in the autumn. A dry/sunny autumn may sometimes look pretty but to most people having the best of the weather in the summer is far more important.

[stainesbloke]

At least this wet period has fallen at the correct time of year this time round - in the autumn. A dry/sunny autumn may sometimes look pretty but to most people having the best of the weather in the summer is far more important.

Couldn't agree more. Lots of rain is quite normal for Autumn. When it wipes out a Summer, that's just so depressing.

[cheese]

Lots of rain definitely isn't normal in autumn here, or for most eastern parts. The wettest month here averages 57mm and that's in August. The rain isn't the issue (it hasn't been very wet here at all), but the lack of sun is a bit annoying. Last October was cold with above-average sunshine - a perfect combo and resulted in really good foliage. This year, it's crap.

Edited October 20, 2013 by cheese

[Captain Shortwave]

Showers and thunderstorms, not bad going for late October, add to that temperatures of 18/19C. 

More like a slightly below par August day rather than mid Autumn

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Good sign surely to have mild setups now? where as last year it was for most of Dec a snow month, even another month of this seems good for winter, ged it out the way now

[Methuselah]

Showers and thunderstorms, not bad going for late October, add to that temperatures of 18/19C. 

More like a slightly below par August day rather than mid Autumn

Long may it continue...though, today's discovery - next Spring's daffodils are growing - suggests that things might get a tad peculiar.

[Mark Neal.]

A more lively day weatherwise, heavy downpours with thunder closeby, something a little more entertaining. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

More surprising extremes to come, re models for me GEM is only one that looks on the ball in FI......may be well wrong but GFS and ECM off the mark

 

BFTP

[Mark Neal.]

More surprising extremes to come, re models for me GEM is only one that looks on the ball in FI......may be well wrong but GFS and ECM off the mark

 

BFTP

 

The GEM keeps showing up a deep low moving across our shores, which is close to what you have been going for BFTP, you said a stormy spell of weather coming up with some lively atlantic weather. I think slowly but surely we are seeing deep lows moving in, with a full attack to take place this week, autumnal. 

Edited October 20, 2013 by Mark N

[tempestwatch]

The Atlantic is certainly firing up, its been a while since we had a meaty storm here in Scotland. Is this a good omen for the rest of winter? or is it just as likely to stay like this like other years have?

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Glad to see there are no signs in the models of the current unsettled spell coming to an end. Could be a bit cooler but overall enjoying this active weather.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

The Atlantic is certainly firing up, its been a while since we had a meaty storm here in Scotland. Is this a good omen for the rest of winter? or is it just as likely to stay like this like other years have?

 

Trying to remember what our last big storm was here. Surely wasn't bawbag was it? 

[cobbett]

Quandry at the moment is when I do I start telling friends/family that there could be another 1987 storm on the way - not sure I want to look a complete prat if it doesn't come off !! 

[stainesbloke]

Quandry at the moment is when I do I start telling friends/family that there could be another 1987 storm on the way - not sure I want to look a complete prat if it doesn't come off !!

Wouldn't say much for now as there is little to suggest anything like a storm as severe as the Great Storm of 1987 is going to occur. Remember storms like that are currently thought to occur about once every 300 years! So maybe warn of some potential gales but keep a close eye on the charts to be sure.

[Captain Shortwave]

Quandry at the moment is when I do I start telling friends/family that there could be another 1987 storm on the way - not sure I want to look a complete prat if it doesn't come off !! 

Give it until it's about 3 days away. The GFS will likely drop the storm. If not then remember....

[cobbett]

Wouldn't say much for now as there is little to suggest anything like a storm as severe as the Great Storm of 1987 is going to occur. Remember storms like that are currently thought to occur about once every 300 years! So maybe warn of some potential gales but keep a close eye on the charts to be sure.

oops too late - i mentioned it once.. but think i got away it !

[Bobby]

Anyone else loving this weather, beats dull boring anticyclonic gloom any day!

[The Post-modern Winter]

I have noticed some very speculative and OTT reactions towards this (relatively) short period of Atlantic dominated weather from some established members, including a number who are suggesting it marks a transition into Winters more reminiscent of the the 90's/early 2000's and away from the colder winters of the last five years. Thank god we have sensible posters like John Holmes advising people to calm down as it is only October. Predicting a month ahead is incredibly difficult, predicting a climatic shift is ludicrous.

[AWD]

An interesting snippet from Ian Fergusson regarding Monday's forecast;

"Sufficient members from EC, GFS & MOGREPS to suggest possible severe wx BUT all manner of variance re evolution: jury out"

[cobbett]

An interesting snippet from Ian Fergusson regarding Monday's forecast;"Sufficient members from EC, GFS & MOGREPS to suggest possible severe wx BUT all manner of variance re evolution: jury out"

It'll bet fergie and other pros will be desperately hoping that the storm on Monday is not as severe as the Express etc warned about a few days back. The constant deriding of the headline would make it a bitter pill to swallow thats for sure !

[AWD]

It'll bet fergie and other pros will be desperately hoping that the storm on Monday is not as severe as the Express etc warned about a few days back. The constant deriding of the headline would make it a bitter pill to swallow thats for sure !

There is actually an interesting little convo on twitter regarding Monday. Ian got asked;"At the moment, I know it's hard but do you have any predictions for Monday's weather?"His reply was the post I made above, which was;"Sufficient members from EC, GFS & MOGREPS to suggest possible severe wx BUT all manner of variance re evolution: jury out"Ian then got asked this;"Fair enough but please say we're nowhere near the Express headline 90MPH gales! They always get it wrong?"To which Ian replied the following;"Right now we can't rule out any solutions, but history shows us how fickle models are with handling this type of developments & not least at this forecast range. Even at short range, a N-S track difference of 50-100 miles has profound impact on outcome thus it goes without saying that Express headline was premature, unwarranted scaremongering. UKMO taking measured approach."Seems as though the possibility of something serious is there and the Met Office believe of this possibility. Rightly so though, they are being cautious and exploring all options before jumping to any conclusions though. Interesting times ahead!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

<Snip>"Right now we can't rule out any solutions, but history shows us how fickle models are with handling this type of developments & not least at this forecast range. Even at short range, a N-S track difference of 50-100 miles has profound impact on outcome thus it goes without saying that Express headline was premature, unwarranted scaremongering. UKMO taking measured approach."Seems as though the possibility of something serious is there and the Met Office believe of this possibility. Rightly so though, they are being cautious and exploring all options before jumping to any conclusions though. Interesting times ahead!

Nicely put, they need to be cautious, are obviously viewing developments and will act as appropriate.

 

And even the Express has to be right sometimes.....

[AWD]

A blog from Liam Dutton regarding Monday's possibilities too;

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/nasty-autumn-storm-monday/5190

[cobbett]

Nicely put, they need to be cautious, are obviously viewing developments and will act as appropriate.

 

And even the Express has to be right sometimes.....

If the Express is right though, there'll be front pages headlines as to why the metoffice didn't issue sufficient warnings etc etc.

Actually where did the paper get there info from - Madden ?!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

If the Express is right though, there'll be front pages headlines as to why the metoffice didn't issue sufficient warnings etc etc.

Actually where did the paper get there info from - Madden ?!

TH MO are on to a loser no matter what happens.  If the Express is right, it will be as you say with all the media blaming the MO.  If it doesn't happen and they'd warned about it they'd be accused of "over egging the pudding"

 

Other than that, I don't think they get their info from a reputable source, too much hype.