Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Captain Shortwave]

speaking of south westerlies, does anyone know where mushymanrob is? miss his early morning updates.

I think he ragequit a week or so back, no idea why. I think someone was jokingly mocking Bartletts 

Sorry Rob again

Anyway whilst it's good to see such impressive blocking appearing, it would be nice to have some sun, and even some frosts down here. Not fifty shades of grey and 101 varieties of rain and drizzle

Nick Sussex is right about the snowcover though which of course is a positive.

Edited October 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[smithyweather]

Oh no the warm weather brigade are posting charts at T240 that's when i know its turning colder.Off to the lake district at the end off this week. Hopefully it will stay cool and there will be some nice crisp mornings in the mountains.

A few of them are ranting and raving about how it is 'cold' when actually its pretty normal for this time of the year. What is not normal is to get 70F in Northern Ireland at this time of the year! 

sigh, for the people on here it's rather baffling to see people celebrating charts which would provide the same surface conditions except it will be 5C cooler.

Neither warm or cold, just cool, breezy and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, some heavy in the south east for a time.

So after much ranting and raving about cloudy and damp conditions over the past couple of weeks, you are celebrating charts which deliver the same thing.

I'm sorry but I cannot at all get excited over this, boring, depressing easterly muck.

 

I would say -0c minimum and 9/10c maximums is quite a difference to the 17c temperature on my mothers car this morning at 8am and the 70f max yesterday. Now come on where do you think we all are Murcia?

Edited October 7, 2013 by smithyweather

[AderynCoch]

As far as I'm concerned October is a month to be endured rather than enjoyed, as both proper warmth and proper cold are rare at this time of year. I'll have to wait at least another month until I can start to get excited at wintry charts, and even then they'll still have to be very unusual.

 

I do find the prospect of deep autumnal lows interesting, but they're as far away as they can be at the moment.

[Captain Shortwave]

A few of them are ranting and raving about how it is 'cold' when actually its pretty normal for this time of the year. What is not normal is to get 70F in Northern Ireland at this time of the year! 

Actually statistically 20C+ is reached in 2 out of every 3 Octobers, so actually it's pretty normal.

Meteorological cold at this time of year is a lot rarer

[Methuselah]

Actually statistically 20C+ is reached in 2 out of every 3 Octobers, so actually it's pretty normal.

Meteorological cold at this time of year is a lot rarer

And a heck of a lot more unpleasant!

[smithyweather]

70F is extremely rare in my location in October....

[SnowObsessor90]

The upcoming weather patterns may or may not give an indication of things to come but for now I'm just happy that we're going to see a change of sorts, personally  I've been over this mild/warm settled pattern for months.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Amongst the sensible posts in the mod thread up pops one touting a bartlett high in Jan lol. What a wum.

[Captain Shortwave]

And a heck of a lot more unpleasant!

A lot of newbies are going to be led down the garden path over the next week, then wonder where their promised sunshine is.

Unfortunately stating that results in your post being demoted into the moaning thread 

Edited October 7, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Amongst the sensible posts in the mod thread up pops one touting a bartlett high in Jan lol. What a wum.

 

this post is hidden because you have chosen to ignore posts by Gaz1985, View it anyway? assuming it is, because I have not seen that post!

 

Why would I want to view it

Edited October 7, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[cheese]

If we end up getting plagued by cloud later this week, I'll be really p*ssed.

Edited October 7, 2013 by cheese

[CongletonHeat]

Amongst the sensible posts in the mod thread up pops one touting a bartlett high in Jan lol. What a wum.

You are the biggest wum on this forum, you have been doing it on the model thread since the late part of summer so don;t cry when someone else plays you lot at your own game.

 

And CreweCold was posting silly CFS charts for winter in July or August but I didn't see you moaning about that.

Edited October 7, 2013 by CongletonHeat

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

You are the biggest wum on this forum, you have been doing it on the model thread since the late part of summer so don;t cry when someone else plays you lot at your own game.And CreweCold was posting silly CFS charts for winter in July or August but I didn't see you moaning about that.

Ooooooo matron. Yes if posting cool and unsettled charts in the reliable time frame is a wum then i am as guilty as hell. Its gonna be a long winter for you sir if your getting your nickers in a twist already

 

If they are actually looking for trends on the CFS then fair play and if Jan trend is really for a Bartlett high then i don't have a problem with that at all, but there not are they?, they are just posting random 1 off charts in the hope of getting a reaction.

Edited October 8, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

Ooooooo matron. Yes if posting cool and unsettled charts in the reliable time frame is a wum then i am as guilty as hell. Its gonna be a long winter for you sir if your getting your nickers in a twist already

Unfortunately this mornings output will not be what coldies want. But then again in reality nothing at this time of year will actually give coldies what they want. After this northerly spell many will still be looking for their first single digit maxima since May. And many more probably still be looking for their first frost. 

[smithyweather]

Well tbh quite alot will see single figure maxes. In ballypatrick forest we have already seen one.

[cheese]

You are the biggest wum on this forum, you have been doing it on the model thread since the late part of summer so don;t cry when someone else plays you lot at your own game.

 

And CreweCold was posting silly CFS charts for winter in July or August but I didn't see you moaning about that.

They're not silly charts; they're useful to try and see if a pattern/trend is emerging. That is exactly why he is posting them.

Ooooooo matron. Yes if posting cool and unsettled charts in the reliable time frame is a wum then i am as guilty as hell. Its gonna be a long winter for you sir if your getting your nickers in a twist already

It's going to be a long winter for all of us if this stupid, petty bickering keeps on recurring. Some people on here are acting like juveniles.

Edited October 8, 2013 by cheese

[Chris K]

You are the biggest wum on this forum, you have been doing it on the model thread since the late part of summer so don;t cry when someone else plays you lot at your own game.And CreweCold was posting silly CFS charts for winter in July or August but I didn't see you moaning about that.

Actually, he has been posting winter charts since around May but had a perfectly valid reason for doing so considering it is a model. Why is it silly if he is just showing and often writing about it's output?? I realise it is highly unlikely to verify as a run shows at the time, but that's not the point of it.CreweCold is one of the few people I find that actually look for the trend from the CFS over a long period of time and actually assesses it as each month passes. Throughout the second half of this year, he has been going on about northern blocking showing up for winter as the overall trend. So for me, it is always interesting to read what he has to say on the progress of any trend. That goes for whether there are more colder or milder options being shown by the way, because personally I am just interested in learning about the range of forecasting tools that are used for things such as seasonal forecasts.Posting random one run CFS charts...yep I agree it's just eye candy at the time and pretty much pointless if taken at face value.Using the CFS to help spot trends and possible areas where any pattern might set up however...well, not expecting it to be accurate here. but it is useful to learn about how it is used and review it as each season passes.I'm not saying the CFS is some magical tool to forecast weather months in advance, but it is always worth looking at, as one of the many outputs used to look for any long range indications or trends. Edited October 8, 2013 by Chris K

[cobbett]

Actually, he has been posting winter charts since around May but had a perfectly valid reason for doing so considering it is a model. Why is it silly if he is just showing and often writing about it's output?? I realise it is highly unlikely to verify as a run shows at the time, but that's not the point of it.CreweCold is one of the few people I find that actually look for the trend from the CFS over a long period of time and actually assesses it as each month passes. Throughout the second half of this year, he has been going on about northern blocking showing up for winter as the overall trend. So for me, it is always interesting to read what he has to say on the progress of any trend. That goes for whether there are more colder or milder options being shown by the way, because personally I am just interested in learning about the range of forecasting tools that are used for things such as seasonal forecasts.Posting random one run CFS charts...yep I agree it's just eye candy at the time and pretty much pointless if taken at face value.Using the CFS to help spot trends and possible areas where any pattern might set up however...well, not expecting it to be accurate here. but it is useful to learn about how it is used and review it as each season passes.I'm not saying the CFS is some magical tool to forecast weather months in advance, but it is always worth looking at, as one of the many outputs used to look for any long range indications or trends.

Blimey poor old Gaz was posting a CFS chart for January and got slated yet its ok for Crewecold to do so !! I can see why anyone posting a chart promoting a mild alternative has a hard time on these forums during winter

Edited October 8, 2013 by cobbett

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Barring a late Indian summer, this is likely the last warm day of the year so hope everyone enjoys it!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Unfortunately this mornings output will not be what coldies want. But then again in reality nothing at this time of year will actually give coldies what they want. After this northerly spell many will still be looking for their first single digit maxima since May. And many more probably still be looking for their first frost. 

I am happy it will be a lot cooler than of late. Not really bothered about any real cold yet. It is only early October after all so i think most people wont be expecting anything. The chances of frost won't become widespread until November so I cannot see to many people stressing about no frost in October. Its just a added bonus if anyone that wants frost does get it.

 

In the longer term both the GEFS mean and ECM mean show the LP in the Atlantic getting closer over time.

Daytime temps going back up to average figures over time.

Edited October 8, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

I am happy it will be a lot cooler than of late. Not really bothered about any real cold yet. It is only early October after all so i think most people wont be expecting anything. The chances of frost won't become widespread until November so I cannot see to many people stressing about no frost in October. Its just a added bonus if anyone that wants frost does get it.

 

In the longer term both the GEFS mean and ECM mean show the LP in the Atlantic getting closer over time.

Daytime temps going back up to average figures over time.

I know you are, you just want unsettled weather, that's fine. Far too many coldies coming out and thinking the big freeze is upon us has left me with steam coming out of my ears 

The warm ship has sailed, but the HMS Frigid has not come into dock just yet, just Autumn like weather coming up, even if the Atlantic conveyor belt seems to be stuck in slow motion. In the end it's October, lets look into and look forward to cold weather in the months where it can happen like November which isn't too far away now 

[Methuselah]

October must the most uninteresting time possible for 'cold' weather: there's nowt much worse than a grey, damp, 7C to bring on the wish to hibernate. After, say, the third week of November, however, things can really get interesting... 

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

If, like me, you are a fan of extreme cold and extreme warmth, it takes something exceptional to liven up the autumn and spring months.  We have been treated to examples of this though in recent times -  most notably a couple of years ago during the late Sept heatwave and also the recent prolonged late warm spell this year.  The springs are also getting warmer thank goodness (April 2007, May 2008, April 2011, March 2012) so the winter feels shorter.

 

Like others have said, we can wave our final goodbyes to summer now and look forward to late November when realistically the winter gains some teeth!

 

I know its not popular, but we could actually do with some rain too.  We've had below average rainfall for quite a few months now.  I wouldn't be surprised if we are not set for another drought akin to 2011.

Edited October 8, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[cheese]

October must the most uninteresting time possible for 'cold' weather: there's nowt much worse than a grey, damp, 7C to bring on the wish to hibernate. After, say, the third week of November, however, things can really get interesting...

 

Why says it has to be grey and damp? What about crisp and sunny? 13C by day and 3C by night with sunshine is what I consider perfect October weather. Grey and damp is exactly the type of weather you would expect between November and January.

 

Blimey poor old Gaz was posting a CFS chart for January and got slated yet its ok for Crewecold to do so !! I can see why anyone posting a chart promoting a mild alternative has a hard time on these forums during winter

 

Read through Gaz's posts and you can see why people object - he is clearly trying to wind people up, he doesn't do it subtly either. It has nothing to do with his preferences. Besides, posters like Gaz and Summer Sun post CFS charts in a clueless manner and offer little input as to what they are showing.  CreweCold is a valuable and knowledgeable member and I am shocked that anyone would criticise him just because he happens to prefer weather they don't like. Very silly.

Edited October 8, 2013 by cheese

[Captain Shortwave]

Why says it has to be grey and damp? What about crisp and sunny? 13C by day and 3C by night with sunshine is what I consider perfect October weather. Grey and damp is exactly the type of weather you would expect between November and January.

Unlikely away from sheltered western areas, the 850's are actually above average in the north by the weekend so I wouldn't be surprised if it turned into a cloudfest with the north sea doing it's usual dirty work. BBC forecast shows it cloudy for most regions, unless the entire model thread population lives in western Scotland 

The cloud part is what some eager posters are seemingly ignoring from their posts.

Edited October 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave