Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Uh oh looks like another hp spell is gonna be hyped to biblical proportions. Zzzzzzzzzzz. Thank god there is some active weather to look forward to on Thursday.

 

would rather have the hp spell, its 0ctober, no snow for me yet, lets have it warm and sunny until Nov

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

would rather have the hp spell, its 0ctober, no snow for me yet, lets have it warm and sunny until Nov

October should be the month of Atlantic storms . Hp has its place in the summer.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Fortunately the ensemble mean uppers are nowhere near as warm as the op run. Bet the op run is near the top end of the ensembles if not an outlier.

[Captain Shortwave]

Fortunately the ensemble mean uppers are nowhere near as warm as the op run. Bet the op run is near the top end of the ensembles if not an outlier.

The Euro high signal is present on both the GFS and ECM ensembles, just a case of waiting a couple of days for the cooler zonal perturbations to swing to this scenario. I think uppers could hit double figures again during October, maybe even for a significant period. I feel I might have undercooked my already warm CET prediction for October.

As I've been saying on the winter forecast thread I feel a change in the winds by the end of October which will probably bring a big drop in temperatures and down the line maybe some snow. But this signal has been showing on a lot of outputs prior to where we are now and with many people going for a warmer than average October since the end of summer I feel the charts we are seeing are of no real shock. The polar vortex is still present only in it's absence from the Atlantic side of the pole.

I expect the Metoffice to put back their predictions of cooler/unsettled weather tomorrow, for about the 5th consecutive day. 

[Average Joe]

Uh oh looks like another hp spell is gonna be hyped to biblical proportions. Zzzzzzzzzzz. Thank god there is some active weather to look forward to on Thursday.

 

Nope, just enjoying some bright sunny and pleasantly warm weather thanks very much! 

[smithyweather]

would rather have the hp spell, its 0ctober, no snow for me yet, lets have it warm and sunny until Nov

Yes its October an autumn month. By 15th October my average high is 9c not 20c. I do not want 20c and sunshine in a month with single figure average highs. As someone said earlier I prefer my seasons to be seasons.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yes its October an autumn month. By 15th October my average high is 9c not 20c. I do not want 20c and sunshine in a month with single figure average highs. As someone said earlier I prefer my seasons to be seasons.

Actually for northern Ireland it's 12.5C for maximum temperature and that's over the whole month, mid-teens is average for this point in the year generally.

Single figure maxima is unseasonably cold for October in the most part, just as temperatures still reaching 20C is unseasonably warm.

[Bristawl Si]

Loving this mild weather; long may it continue. Keeps the heating off!

It can turn cold and snowy around Christmas.

[smithyweather]

Actually for northern Ireland it's 12.5C for maximum temperature and that's over the whole month, mid-teens is average for this point in the year generally.Single figure maxima is unseasonably cold for October in the most part, just as temperatures still reaching 20C is unseasonably warm.

The average high for today is 14c.

Actually for northern Ireland it's 12.5C for maximum temperature and that's over the whole month, mid-teens is average for this point in the year generally.Single figure maxima is unseasonably cold for October in the most part, just as temperatures still reaching 20C is unseasonably warm.

The average high for today is 14c.

[conor123]

I for one am very happy with the prospect of another warm weekend & the pleasant weather continuing into next week, looks a much sunnier high this time, though believe it or not there's now been over 20 days in the past two months forecast to be nice which have ended up poor, and not just poor, I mean truly grey & nasty, so i'll happily take a warm and sunny October to make up for that and keep it going into November like 2011 with those 16-17c days we had before a sudden bolt from the arctic Mid November gives a shock to the system.

 

January - March was the best period for snow here in a long time, far far better than Dec 2010 though often very marginal, would be nice to see the dearly missed Cheshire Gap streamer again this winter.

[stainesbloke]

I'd love to keep the nice warm weather for some weeks yet before the Atlantic charges up. Saves loads on heating, plus leaves on trees are only just starting to turn, any gales now would cause lots of damage.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Looks like the HP spell from this weekend could last quite a while. Booooooooooooooooo.

Its enough to send you to sleep. The only good thing is that there should be some nice cool nightimes.

Better to get this Southern based HP out the way now though rather than have it in the winter :-)

Edited October 2, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still think next week will end up being a cold easterly (nuisance value) north sea misty low cloud dominating the west midlands, wintry feel, windy and 9C

 

elsewhere of course likely to be sunny with cold wind

[Richard2901]

 

I am absolutely loathing the current non-weather and it just gets worse and worse. The gloomiest day of this dismal depressing spell, following a 6th consecutive double digit min with probably at least a further two to come. It's ridiculous especially since it barely gets any warmer during the day. It just feels cold and horrible with the grey skies and hateful SE wind.

 

This is pure and utter filth. Nasty and unpleasant dross that 15 years ago would have stood out as one of the worst ever autumn spells but is now something that we have to endure pretty much every other year. The trees colour has not advanced at all over the past week due to this awful cloudy mild nothingness

Edited October 2, 2013 by Richard2901

[Bottesford]

If it cheers you all up - its been sunny & mostly clear since I arrived in Berlin on Friday. Chilly nights, cool sunny days but feeling warm in the still fairly strong sun. Trees starting to look lovely too!

[Frank Trough]

Looks like the HP spell from this weekend could last quite a while. Booooooooooooooooo.

Its enough to send you to sleep. The only good thing is that there should be some nice cool nightimes.

Better to get this Southern based HP out the way now though rather than have it in the winter :-)

 

....but we all know that if the high was setting up camp further north/northwest people would be saying "brilliant, great signs for winter...pattern locked in" and so forth.

[Captain Shortwave]

The rain has arrived, when will settled weather return, knowing the UK, not for a long time 

Looks at models

High pressure returns in 48 hours and looks set to stay for at least a week

lol!!!!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

The rain has arrived, when will settled weather return, knowing the UK, not for a long time 

Looks at models

High pressure returns in 48 hours and looks set to stay for at least a week

lol!!!!

 

You were getting bored with the settled weather the other day. Surely not fed up with the rain already.

It was lovely laying in bed last night listening to the rain outside.

Edited October 2, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

You were getting bored with the settled weather the other day. Surely not fed up with the rain already.

It was lovely laying in bed last night listening to the rain outside.

After I complained, 6 cloud free days followed. You can't get bored of the clear sunny days (unless you despise the colour blue)

I look forward to the thundery rain tomorrow

note- living in the triangle of doom means I won't be seeing thndery rain tomorrow

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

After I complained, 6 cloud free days followed. You can't get bored of the clear sunny days (unless you despise the colour blue)

I look forward to the thundery rain tomorrow

note- living in the triangle of doom means I won't be seeing thndery rain tomorrow

 

I doubt I will see any thunder either. Some torrential rain will have to do hopefully.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Come on models show me some sustained cool and unsettled weather.

[Average Joe]

No thanks.....the thought of the heating going on, wearing several layers of clothing and putting t-shirts & shorts away for 6 months isn't a nice one! I can allow a days rain to slide if it means bright & sunny for the weekend into next week! 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Gonna enjoy todays rain, hoepfully will be torrential and thundery, after today the weather takes  another tumble downhill to nothingness. The model thread has been very dull for weeks on end now.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

No thanks.....the thought of the heating going on, wearing several layers of clothing and putting t-shirts & shorts away for 6 months isn't a nice one! I can allow a days rain to slide if it means bright & sunny for the weekend into next week! 

 

There is plenty of people who seem to wear shorts all year round. Maybe its the warm weather fands on here that don't want let go of summer, bit like the current weather

Edited October 3, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Average Joe]

I'm more than happy to admit that I don'[t want to let go of any warm & sunny weather, regardless of if it's in summer or autumn. As someone once said to me, "Ice is for drinks", so that rather sums up my feelings towards winter! The longer any cold & unsettled weather remains away from these shores, the better! 

 

I of course realise I'm in a minority at this time of year, but happy to be so! :-)