Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Captain Shortwave]

As are all other forecasters CS!

Indeed.

Here is another issue, we were supposedly going to enter phase 6 on the MJO which would show something like this

But what models like the ECM are showing this for 10 days time

 

I mean it's the complete opposite 

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Here you go

 

http://matthugo.wordpress.com/2013/05/14/summer-2013-thoughts-and-analysis/

 

Bit of a poison challace LRF

[Bobby]

Not one ray of sunshine from this 'mini indian-summer' here. Persistently overcast, misty and drizzly. Damp and drizzly now and feeling a little chilly even. Dulller than a very dull thing.

 

Bring on the hurricanes and downpours I say!

[shedhead]

Not one ray of sunshine from this 'mini indian-summer' here. Persistently overcast, misty and drizzly. Damp and drizzly now and feeling a little chilly even. Dulller than a very dull thing.

 

Bring on the hurricanes and downpours I say!

Dull as ditchwater again here too Bobby.  Some of us warned of the risk of this last week, when others were again going completely OTT regarding sunshine and heat. Yes no one can deny the current synoptics are great and if it were July no doubt we'd be seeing maxima in the 30's, but it's late Sept and here at least if feels distinctly chilly in the breeze.

Edited September 23, 2013 by shedhead

[johnholmes]

teach me to keep my big mouth shut!

8/8 St now

[wimblettben]

I am not being horrible, but this settled period has to be the most over hyped I have ever seen so far on this forum.

 

It does seem like quite a few people didn't take into account the time of year and that cloud amounts would mostly be harder to break up in an Autumn month then a Summer one.

 

At this time of year one would expect cloud amounts to last longer because of less power from the sun to break it up. Where the upper flow is coming from also makes a big difference.

Edited September 23, 2013 by wimblettben

[Captain Shortwave]

The irony of this image

 

The north easts revenge 

South and west cloudy. North sea completely clear of cloud

Edited September 23, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Bottesford]

Yep for once the east is most sunny! Shame us east midlanders end up with the worst of both worlds - we had plenty of it from the east and now we've got it from the west!

[shedhead]

I am not being horrible, but this settled period has to be the most over hyped I have ever seen so far on this forum.

 

It does seem like quite a few people didn't take into account the time of year and that cloud amounts would mostly be harder to break up in an Autumn month then a Summer one.

 

At this time of year one would expect cloud amounts to last longer because of less power from the sun to break it up. Where the upper flow is coming from also makes a big difference.

And that's no mean feat considering some of the stuff we're seen posted since the July heatwave ended...

[Captain Shortwave]

Yep for once the east is most sunny! Shame us east midlanders end up with the worst of both worlds - we had plenty of it from the east and now we've got it from the west!

It should break up, there appears to be no source for the cloud so it's a case of hows your luck. Probably just melt away by the end of the day. Unfortunately that clump over Germany is going to drift our way over the coming days, lets how it get permanently diverted.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

I am not being horrible, but this settled period has to be the most over hyped I have ever seen so far on this forum.

 

It does seem like quite a few people didn't take into account the time of year and that cloud amounts would mostly be harder to break up in an Autumn month then a Summer one.

 

At this time of year one would expect cloud amounts to last longer because of less power from the sun to break it up. Where the upper flow is coming from also makes a big difference.

 

 

Any real warmth by that i mean above 22c seems to be very localised, certainly not countrywide warmth. Cloudy here still and currently 17.1c. will be very very lucky to break 20c.

 

One post last week even mentioned the word HOT for this week haha.

Edited September 23, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[shedhead]

Any real warmth by that i mean above 22c seems to be very localised, certainly not countrywide warmth. Cloudy here still and currently 17.1c. will be very very lucky to break 20c.

 

One post last week even mentioned the word HOT for this week haha.

This was always set to be a cloudy situation punctuated by sunny periods, never a sunny situation punctuated by cloudy periods, I think most of us recognised and perhaps more importantly accepted that to be honest.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yet other people were convinced that temperatures wouldn't even break 20C and were harping on about that.

Well it reached 24C widely yesterday, which was pretty much on expectations from the likes of me.

Yeah over hyped, I guess on the positive side it means James Madden's winter forecast is going to be 100% accurate 

[shedhead]

Yet other people were convinced that temperatures wouldn't even break 20C and were harping on about that.

Well it reached 24C widely yesterday, which was pretty much on expectations from the likes of me.

Yeah over hyped, I guess on the positive side it means James Madden's winter forecast is going to be 100% accurate 

Well obviously, it always is...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Todays meto update is good for fans of active weather

[Bottesford]

It was always said the weekend would be cloudy with any warmth peaking on Monday with an increased southerly flow... well its the total opposite!

Sat was cloudy at times but bright and sun coming through, Sun was sunny start to finish and lovely and warm, today is still thick low cloud but it is now 18c.

[conor123]

Yup same here, really expected an automatic slate grey weekend with the westerly winds driving stratogloom into the region, instead had a bit of a fohn effect melt away cloud through the afternoon's east of the Cambrian's, in contrast today with SE/E winds the opposite happening, slate grey all day but 21c+ and unbroken sunshine to the west of the Cambrian's, 22c now in Trawscoed! 

[Summer Sun]

Another glorious sunny day here in the NE been to redcar today hit 20c there and it felt warm as well with no sea breeze

Edited September 23, 2013 by Summer Sun

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

A high of 17.7c today, should I put this in the very warm or hot category.

People will talk about this day in years to come

Edited September 23, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Summer Sun]

Todays meto update is good for fans of active weather

 

Still no gales for you in the south though

 

It also looks like staying warm in the south and east well into October

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Still no gales for you in the south though

 

It also looks like staying warm in the south and east well into October

 

Rain or showers will do, it's still 1000 times more active than this current tripe.

Edited September 23, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Tony27]

I am not being horrible, but this settled period has to be the most over hyped I have ever seen so far on this forum.

 

It does seem like quite a few people didn't take into account the time of year and that cloud amounts would mostly be harder to break up in an Autumn month then a Summer one.

 

At this time of year one would expect cloud amounts to last longer because of less power from the sun to break it up. Where the upper flow is coming from also makes a big difference.

unfortunately people saw those lovely red colours on the 500mb charts  went overboard and start predicting mid twenties, here it is dull and 17c today despite this lovely looking chart 

Edited September 23, 2013 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

unfortunately people saw those lovely red colours on the 500mb charts  went overboard and start predicting mid twenties, here it is dull and 17c today despite this lovely looking chart 

Trawscoed in West Wales has recorded a maximum of 25C today

Been lovely and pleasant with sunny spells all day here. Though a sea breeze has kept the temperatures pegged back compared to yesterday.

Edited September 23, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Tony27]

ah well that proves me wrong then the uk has seen summer like conditions today

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

ah well that proves me wrong then the uk has seen summer like conditions today

 

Not all the UK just some places.