Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Summer Sun]

East of the pennines seems to be the place today for the sunshine just under 17c in Darlo with the sunshine

[Captain Shortwave]

Whilst over this side of the Pennines it's truly awful no signs of any sun. Looking forward to next weekend when hopefully the polar jet sweeps well to the south of us, as per forecasts1

Don't get your hopes up, it will probably be grey and cloudy under that as well 

[Bottesford]

Still cloudy here although bright and just now I saw 30 seconds of sunlight...

Still its warmer at last now 17.9c. Feels much nicer to be out in!

[MP-R]

^^ Even though I would want to vomit if we had this setup in winter, it's quite nice that despite being cloudy it's not cold or even cool feeling - just pleasant, probably thanks to the humidity.

 

High pressure only really interests me if we can some sunshine out of it, which I'm sure in the height of summer would be more plentiful under this setup than now.

[Tony27]

what's happened to this nice weather frosty promised us its cloudy with drizzle here 

[AWD]

what's happened to this nice weather frosty promised us its cloudy with drizzle here

Too be fair to Frosty, although admittedly he has hyped up this little warmer spell we are entering IMO, he never said today would be sunny. In fact, recent posts of his mentioned a lot of cloud about today.As the flow turns more southerly over the next 48 hours, that's when a lot more sunshine should appear, as per Frosty's recent posts.

[Scorcher]

It's sunnier than I expected here this afternoon, great weather now and feeling warm.

[Tony27]

Too be fair to Frosty, although admittedly he has hyped up this little warmer spell we are entering IMO, he never said today would be sunny. In fact, recent posts of his mentioned a lot of cloud about today.As the flow turns more southerly over the next 48 hours, that's when a lot more sunshine should appear, as per Frosty's recent posts.

yes exactly his recent posts, it is only 16c here, the charts were saying 20c on tuesday and wednesday and he was saying about 22c for the weekend and  i believe today is the weekend, never be fooled by those lovely red colours on the charts or frosty's ramping, if its cloudy tomorrow i doubt it will be 22c 

Edited September 21, 2013 by Tony27

[cheese]

So much cloud today. Really getting pissed off with this.

Edited September 21, 2013 by cheese

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Just want to thank the summer model posters for their input on the model thread these last few months. Loved the enthusiasm shown and very happy we had a summer to shout about for once! Hope we keep a lot of you guys for the winter thread as we will need a range of views on interpreting the output.

I will stick to commenting on here til I have more experience in reading the models.

I'm visiting relatives near Telford today and they seem to have the lions share of the sunshine here today!

Edited September 21, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Tony27]

well it did get up to 19c but that happened at 5pm lol, strange as you don;t see max temps happen at 7pm or  8pm in june two hours before sunset

[mushymanrob]

15.6c here grey laden skies and drizzle, yeah what fantastic weather eh!

 

that would be fantastic through february though! :lol:

 

strange as you don;t see max temps happen at 7pm or  8pm in june two hours before sunset

 

you would under similar synoptic circumstances, ie the warm air arriving after a weak warm front clears.

[mushymanrob]

... im not so sure frosty has hyped up the temps, it got to 24c yesterday somewhere and its set to get warmer still... so whilst not widespread heat, some favoured spots could well get temps over 25c...

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

23.1c was the official max recorded by the meto yesterday.

 

Come on this warm spell has been well and truely over hyped with talk of lasting 2 weeks and temps well into the high 20's, the only time this was gonna be epic was inside peoples head. Local warm spots don't make a widespread warm spell. Some can dress it up how they want but most know all this talk has been cobblers.

Edited September 22, 2013 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[Captain Shortwave]

23.1c was the official max recorded by the meto yesterday.

 

Come on this warm spell has been well and truely over hyped with talk of lasting 2 weeks and temps well into the high 20's, the only time this was gonna be epic was inside peoples head. Local warm spots don't make a widespread warm spell. Some can dress it up how they want but most know all this talk has been cobblers.

The irony of this post is that you have over hyped the so called over hyped nature of this spell. Please quote where someone said the spell was going to last for 2 weeks. I haven't for sure and sure most haven't either 

Many areas comfortably into the low twenties already. Including here (for once)

Edited September 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Scorcher]

Frosty has not overhyped the temps at all, nobody has in fact- we did better in these parts for temperatures than the BBC predicted yesterday and look likely to again today with plenty of sunshine.

The irony of this post is that you have over hyped the so called over hyped nature of this spell. Please quote where someone said the spell was going to last for 2 weeks. I haven't for sure and sure most haven't either 

Many areas comfortably into the low twenties already. Including here (for once)

 

Yes I don't think anyone has banged on about this spell more than him! Clearly feels there's something to play down!

[Captain Shortwave]

Frosty has not overhyped the temps at all, nobody has in fact- we did better in these parts for temperatures than the BBC predicted yesterday and look likely to again today with plenty of sunshine.

Well it looks like the GFS was the only model even close to getting the correct temperatures and it's likely even that has undercooked the maximums a little (though it did pretty well yesterday as it was saying 22C was the Max for the UK)

ECM temperature predictions are simply beyond hopeless as I assumed they were when they were being put around to put down anyone saying it was going to be warm. Strange that during the summer the ECM charts were never posted by anyone.... I wonder why

[cobbett]

Come on this warm cold spell has been well and truely over hyped with talk of lasting 2 weeks and temps well into the high  low 20's, the only time this was gonna be epic was inside peoples head. Local warm cold spots don't make a widespread warm cold spell. Some can dress it up how they want but most know all this talk has been cobblers.

Edited for 3 months hence

[Bottesford]

Can't grumble here at all - very sunny indeed and better than originally forecast.

So nice having air going through the house again...

[syed2878]

i do agree there has been a bit of a hipe regarding this warm spell. To be faire to frosty he didnt say this will last 2weeks. How ever yesterday afternoon and today's beautyful here in brum.

[Summer Sun]

The Satellite shows where the cloud and sun is very easily this afternoon

 

 

The south is one of the cloudiest spots in the UK today with the exception of the far south west

 

The little yellow square is Darlo and as you can see we are under glorious blue sky and warm sunshine its nice to be able to get the shorts back on and the BBQ back out not bad for late September

[AWD]

The Satellite shows where the cloud and sun is very easily this afternoon

The south is one of the cloudiest spots in the UK today with the exception of the far south west

The little yellow square is Darlo and as you can see we are under glorious blue sky and warm sunshine its nice to be able to get the shorts back on and the BBQ back out not bad for late September

Yup, and as you can see on that satellite image, my area has been stuck under persistent cloudcover all weekend with not even a hint of brightness. Whilst it has been warm and humid, without the sunshine it hasn't really been that noticeable yet here.

Hopefully the next few days will provide us a glimpse of that elusive yellow orb before Autumn proper returns next weekend.

[cheese]

Today has been one of the best days for ages. Very pleasant 21.2C with glorious blue skies. Not as warm as the 24-25C GFS was going for about a day or two ago, but who cares? This is the perfect temperature IMO.

Edited September 22, 2013 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Temperatures widely in the high teens or low 20's today not bad for late September

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/cgicurrentgraph?CEL=C&SI=mph&ART=kartealle&LANG=en&JJ=2013&MM=09&TT=22&TIME=1530&TYP=temperatur&KEY=UK&LAND=UK&CONT=ukuk&TIME=1379866718

 

One thing I've noticed this year is spring was late in getting started wasn't until mid April before temperatures got into the mid to high teens frequently

 

Summer started off on time with temperatures around the 20's frequently

 

And autumn hasn't got started properly yet in full warm at the start (30c hit in the south) cooler for the last 2 weeks now warming up again for the final week

[Tony27]

well it felt like autumn here this week it was 11c on tuesday and the mid teens for the rest of it, today is by far the best day of the week 22c, that is nice for late september but nothing extreme, snow is more rare here in march, than warmth is in september , we have about 7 or 8 months of the year where we can get nice pleasant days, but there are only about 3 or 4 months of the year where we can get good snow, i know snow is possible in april but that is rare as hen's teeth here