Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[I remember Atlantic 252]

The return of the warmth will be most welcome after this unseasonable dive into November like conditions of recent days. If this spell is anything like other settled spells in recent Septembers then it will be glorious.

 

i agree, would be good to see an indian summer, hate this weather, been hit badly with rain here recently, I am a cold fan, but do not want wasted northerlies/easterlies now

Edited September 17, 2013 by IrememberAtlantic252

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

A warm week in mid/late September is no indication of what is to come for winter.  Look at this chart for today's chart from 1963 for example..

 

No hint at this stage of the once in 200 year winter to come a few months later!

Edited September 17, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Thundery wintry showers]

Agree. Those cold uppers are wasted here. During October, I'll be looking at Siberia/Russia and Asia as that's where we want the cold pooling. Besides, settled conditions and sunshine make for a better Autumnal display by the trees.

I don't think the amount of cold pooling over Siberia/Russia in October really means much.  An easterly will very rarely deliver lowland snowfall prior to mid-November (most snowfalls in October and early November stem from northerlies), while it's no good for snow lovers if we get a lot of eastern cold pooling in October, only for a long-draw south-westerly to blow it all away into the far east of Asia during early to mid-November.

 

Most of eastern Europe and Russia/Siberia were unusually warm during the first two-thirds of November 2010 and this meant that initially, we had very little cold pooling to tap into and the north-easterlies of the 20th-22nd brought cloudy damp weather and near-average temperatures, but with the extensive northern blocking and absence of south-westerlies that developed, an intense cold pool subsequently formed to the NE and came our way, giving us that exceptional cold spell.

[mushymanrob]

A warm week in mid/late September is no indication of what is to come for winter.  Look at this chart for today's chart from 1963 for example..

archives-1963-9-17-0-0.png

 

No hint at this stage of the once in 200 year winter to come a few months later!

 

one slight flaw in this post...

 

the winter of '63' was 62-63... not 63-64... therefore the chart for september 63 was 6 months after the cold had gone!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Haha, you are right Mushy!  Well spotted I think most of 1962 was cold come to think of it..

Edited September 18, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Bottesford]

Sure am sick of the hardcore chill of the last couple of days - only using gas fire at night so far which is fine in evenings (eventually) but the mornings are painful.. the only warm places being bed & shower making it ten times harder to leave either of them!

The clothes you put on are cold... my pc's mouse is cold... my watch & wallet are cold... Yes very ready for some warmer weather now!

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Loved the end of Sept 2011 heatwave and with the promise of a similar weather pattern establishing itself next week it looks like history is repeating itself. It matters little to me whether we see temps in the low 20s or high 20s. What is most important is seeing a big fat high sitting over the UK for the foreseeable! I'll get the sun parasol back out of the shed. I wore shorts for over 60 days this summer and maybe another 7 days wear to come!

This can last through early October too as far as I am concerned!

Edited September 18, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Tony27]

Sure am sick of the hardcore chill of the last couple of days - only using gas fire at night so far which is fine in evenings (eventually) but the mornings are painful.. the only warm places being bed & shower making it ten times harder to leave either of them!

The clothes you put on are cold... my pc's mouse is cold... my watch & wallet are cold... Yes very ready for some warmer weather now!

yeah my hands and feet do get very cold when im just sitting around on my computer, as soon as i get up and do a job around the house i get warmed up, its also hard getting out of the shower and bed as you say, and its not even that cold technically but i have a low tolerance to both cold and hot weather, i just like snow, sun, thunderstorms, fog, frost. rain, and gales in autumn/winter

[conor123]

Ahh what a surprise, after getting my hopes up for FINALLY getting a warm and sunny weekend the downgrades begin!!! just watch as usual grey murk will end up over here Saturday AND Sunday, oh and Monday to if the 12z has it's way :lol: 

[Scorcher]

Ahh what a surprise, after getting my hopes up for FINALLY getting a warm and sunny weekend the downgrades begin!!! just watch as usual grey murk will end up over here Saturday AND Sunday, oh and Monday to if the 12z has it's way

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

 

Some downgrade eh? I really do despair at times, with expectations like that you're nearly always going to be disappointed.

[AWD]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961.gif

Some downgrade eh? I really do despair at times, with expectations like that you're nearly always going to be disappointed.

To be fair his post is from 17:01, before the 12z ECM came out.

[Scorcher]

To be fair his post is from 17:01, before the 12z ECM came out.

 

Still most of us wait for the ECM to come out before passing judgement as it is generally the most reliable model, some people will use any excuse to moan- in any case the GFS 12Z is nothing to moan about really, 100 times better than the muck we've had this week anyway.

[conor123]

My point still stands, the 12z models would bring cloudy skies here and 19c while 23-25c further east as the wind is from the SW, always a recipe for stratocumlus, earlier runs had a pure southerly meaning blue skies.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still reminds me of Sept '11, this setup, must be a chance of 28°C somewhere, I will welcome it this time, wont feel too hot, and need a break from rain, been unlucky with rain here lately, rain day, dry night etc

[conor123]

Still most of us wait for the ECM to come out before passing judgement as it is generally the most reliable model, some people will use any excuse to moan- in any case the GFS 12Z is nothing to moan about really, 100 times better than the muck we've had this week anyway.

Well it has downgraded hugely that's a fact, last night it looked clear and warm all weekend with just some high level cloud as the front skirted Scotland, now it looks mostly cloudy all weekend here, the forecast satellite has low cloud all weekend and then the warm air pushing away Monday, massive changes from last week's week of clear skies!

[Captain Shortwave]

Well it has downgraded hugely that's a fact, last night it looked clear and warm all weekend with just some high level cloud as the front skirted Scotland, now it looks mostly cloudy all weekend here, the forecast satellite has low cloud all weekend and then the warm air pushing away Monday, massive changes from last week's week of clear skies!

And now the GFS has flipped back

 

Compared to last run

I stated in the model thread this split flow will cause trouble, on this run Monday could potentially be pretty hot

[conor123]

 

Charts might look good on the face of it but the satellite forecast shows different story unfortunately, those charts would bring slate grey skies without a shadow of a doubt!

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm, I wouldn't be too certain, western areas have a habit sometimes of not getting low cloud even when it's forecast (for example July 2013), if the cloud was shown it it's almost guaranteed to exist 

[hec1]

So from now until the start of October the weather looks like its going to be  extremely boring.

[mushymanrob]

So from now until the start of October the weather looks like its going to be  extremely boring.

 

weather isnt all about extremes, and thats the beauty of our climate, it is varied. i pity those of you who cannot find the beauty in calmer weather...

[conor123]

Well looks like my rants were right afterall unfortunately, no last minute turnaround's, the sheet of stratocumulus is already here and it looks like staying till around 3-4pm Sunday now with the blue skies pushed into the working week as always.

[mushymanrob]

getting fractious in the md thread... frosty being criticised for over estimating the temps whilst those downplaying the temps go unchallenged... <_<

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

Hmm, there definitely seems to be 2 camps emerging on here at this crossover part of the season. Those looking for the first taste of winter in Autumn and those looking for the final days of summerlike weather.  This coming week, it looks like the mildies are in charge.  But for how long? 

 

I'm in the mild camp until about the 2nd week of November.  Then I might switch sides, but I would like to witness a proper Indian summer before then (a warm spell after the first frost of the season).

 

Mushy, I take it you prefer mild winters?  Which winter of the last 30 would you most prefer for the coming season?

Edited September 20, 2013 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[Methuselah]

And, at the end of day, whatever our likes and dislikes, we simply have to take whatever comes.

[Captain Shortwave]

I find what side to chose very simple really in September

Warmer southerly, brings 30C even near the end of September

Coldest northerly, brings snow only to the Scottish mountains

So cold and unsettled for me brings nothing but miserable weather whilst the milder weather can still give a last taste of summer warmth, hence why I want warm and sunny weather still. During the First half of October I will be open minded as you can still get warmth and possibly snow, but by late October I will have defected to the cold side