Model Banter, Moans and Ramps

[Frank Trough]

i like my cold early - 2010 was brilliant. I like spring to arrive by february. I don't like "descending" winters all that much. Mind you, depending on how much cold worshiping, back slapping and "BOOMING" goes on in the MOD thread i could happily settle for an above average winter. 

 

One thing is sure - regardless of the winter overall Bournemouth will always struggle to see lying snow. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well looks like my rants were right afterall unfortunately, no last minute turnaround's, the sheet of stratocumulus is already here and it looks like staying till around 3-4pm Sunday now with the blue skies pushed into the working week as always.

Telford doesn't look that bad, there are some sun symbols in there over the weekend. Don't expect the weekend to be overcast

also 20C, above average and wouldn't be surprised in the temperatures got a little higher.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/3345439?day=1

[mushymanrob]

Hmm, there definitely seems to be 2 camps emerging on here at this crossover part of the season. Those looking for the first taste of winter in Autumn and those looking for the final days of summerlike weather.  This coming week, it looks like the mildies are in charge.  But for how long? 

 

I'm in the mild camp until about the 2nd week of November.  Then I might switch sides, but I would like to witness a proper Indian summer before then (a warm spell after the first frost of the season).

 

Mushy, I take it you prefer mild winters?  Which winter of the last 30 would you most prefer for the coming season?

 

winter 81-2 was perfect (i know, outside the 30 year requested). im no lover of ordinary cold...i dislike frosts, beasterlies, ive had to work in enough of them to hate them. but i am a weather lover, a winter without snow isnt a real winter.... so 81-2 where we had it early, then it went, was perfect for me. so mainly mild, especially after mid jan.

 

the md thread in winter is unbearable... its not the md thread, its hijacked by snowlovers and any non cold/ or unbiased pov are scorned.

 

imho there should be 2 md threads, one for hunting the cold, then the normal one for unbiased model discussion.

 

i like my cold early - 2010 was brilliant. I like spring to arrive by february. I don't like "descending" winters all that much. Mind you, depending on how much cold worshiping, back slapping and "BOOMING" goes on in the MOD thread i could happily settle for an above average winter. 

 

 

 

completely agree with you! love mild februaries, lets have the snow/cold over crimbo when its best suited.

Edited September 20, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Scorcher]

 

completely agree with you! love mild februaries, lets have the snow/cold over crimbo when its best suited.

 

How good was February 2008- one of the best months I can remember, mainly because of the unexpected combination of sunshine and warmth. There were some huge diurnal ranges in that month as well. 2007/2008 really was a doddle of a winter if you don't like cold.

[Summer Sun]

How good was February 2008- one of the best months I can remember, mainly because of the unexpected combination of sunshine and warmth. There were some huge diurnal ranges in that month as well. 2007/2008 really was a doddle of a winter if you don't like cold.

 

Yep it can fell really spring like in February if conditions are right given the extra daylight and stronger sun

[Bottesford]

Agree - if we're having cold then I want it Dec-Jan then gone! This year it dragged on into early summer making for a very short warm season.

 

Far too cloudy today - a lovely start then in it rolled and now its stuck. Seems Monday is the be the best day of this spell - ruddy typical eh! Now we're in late Sept daylight hours are too short to make much use of warm evenings so any good weather really needs to fall at weekends!

[Richard2901]

A poor day today. Lots of sunshine forecast but ended up with lots of cloud and not even 4 hours of sun  Yet another cold morning as well with temps still well in single figures at 8am.

 

It's actually worse than earlier in the week. Tuesday and Wednesday were much better - far sunnier with similar temps (only 1C cooler). If the weekend brings more of the same it will be the worst weekend of the month not the best.

[cheese]

Today was supposed to be sunny, according to the Met Office, but it turned out cloudy. A very, very poor forecast. Not impressed at all. No doubt Monday will end up very cloudy too.

Edited September 20, 2013 by cheese

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yep it can fell really spring like in February if conditions are right given the extra daylight and stronger sun

 

definitely true, to me Dec and Jan are the real winter months, low sun, dark early, weak sun

[Summer Sun]

definitely true, to me Dec and Jan are the real winter months, low sun, dark early, weak sun

 

For me its November to January as this is the period when the nights are at there longest.

 

From mid Jan onwards the sun is getting higher and slowly gaining strength meaning more areas which were in shade during November and December are getting sunlight again which in turn melts snow quicker in bigger areas

 

Some may argue winter should be November to January instead of December to February for the simple reason that February can feel quite spring like given the extra daylight and stronger sun as I highlighted above.

Edited September 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[cheese]

Some may argue winter should be November to January instead of December to February for the simple reason that February can feel quite spring like given the extra daylight and stronger sun as I highlighted above.

By some, you mean you, I presume?

[Summer Sun]

By some, you mean you, I presume?

 

No it doesn't bother me

 

Look at 2010 as a prime example very cold and snowy 2nd half of November (1.5 to 2.0°C below average), December bitter and very snowy with one 5 day mild spell mid month,  mixed January flipped from cold to mild and back to cold (below average CET) warmer February 1.7c above normal

 

I know March was bitter this year but that was only because of the late SSW which caused all sorts of problems into spring hence the very late start

Edited September 20, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bottesford]

I'd say winter 'feels' like it runs November to February as that's generally the period where work starts or ends (or both) in darkness. It is getting lighter in Feb but I'd not put it into spring category - a mild day in Feb is in the same way a chilly night in Aug is - a mere taste of the next season.

I think all the seasonal time definitions are correct with just the exception of Nov which could easily slip into the winter category.

[cheese]

 

Look at 2010 as a prime example very cold and snowy 2nd half of November (1.5 to 2.0°C below average), December bitter and very snowy with one 5 day mild spell mid month,  mixed January flipped from cold to mild and back to cold (below average CET) warmer February 1.7c above normal

Okay.. so because February came out warmer than normal in 2011 and November came out colder than normal in 2010, that means February should be spring and November winter? When was the last time November had a sub-0C CET month?

Edited September 20, 2013 by cheese

[Summer Sun]

Okay.. so because February came out warmer than normal in 2011 and November came out colder than normal in 2010, that means February should be spring and November winter? When was the last time November had a sub-0C CET month?

 

When was the last sub 0c CET month in general?

 

December 2010 was 0.6c

 

I'm guessing the 80's?

[cheese]

When was the last sub 0c CET month in general?

 

December 2010 was 0.6c

 

I'm guessing the 80's?

December 2010 had a CET of -0.7C.

 

February 1986 had a CET of -1.1C.

Edited September 20, 2013 by cheese

[UV-RAY]

Bloody miserable weather up here, yesterdays high only managed to climb up to 13.9c  and was cloudy all day, today it's up to 13.5c but it remains cloudy and miserable. Pleasant weather my ????.

[Summer Sun]

December 2010 had a CET of -0.7C.

 

February 1986 had a CET of -1.1C.

 

Thanks goes to show how rare subzero CET's are in the UK

[Scorcher]

Bloody miserable weather up here, yesterdays high only managed to climb up to 13.9c  and was cloudy all day, today it's up to 13.5c but it remains cloudy and miserable. Pleasant weather my ????.

 

At least there's no horrible northwesterly to go with it as we had earlier in the week- it's cloudy but it's a huge improvement in the North West!

[UV-RAY]

At least there's no horrible northwesterly to go with it as we had earlier in the week- it's cloudy but it's a huge improvement in the North West!

It's awful Scorcher. drab and miserable. At least with a NW you actually see some sunshine.

[Scorcher]

It's awful Scorcher. drab and miserable. At least with a NW you actually see some sunshine.

 

Didn't see much this week in these parts at all! If it's going to be dull I'd rather there be little wind.

[UV-RAY]

15.6c here grey laden skies and drizzle, yeah what fantastic weather eh!

[Captain Shortwave]

It's awful Scorcher. drab and miserable. At least with a NW you actually see some sunshine.

Most of the northwesterlies here this week have brought endless stratus and grey weather, it was like that yesterday until the wind swung round to the west/south west when it brightened up. South westerly today and the sun is out in full glory.

[UV-RAY]

Most of the northwesterlies here this week have brought endless stratus and grey weather, it was like that yesterday until the wind swung round to the west/south west when it brightened up. South westerly today and the sun is out in full glory.

Whilst over this side of the Pennines it's truly awful no signs of any sun. Looking forward to next weekend when hopefully the polar jet sweeps well to the south of us, as per forecasts1

[Scorcher]

Signs of it brightening up here too being in the south east of the region and we're on the west side of the Pennines, lots of breaks over Cheshire as well looking at the satellite images.