Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z is a stonking run from T+168 hours onwards, becoming anticyclonic and very warm across the uk, so there are still a lot of good signs for the weather to become much warmer and settled between early and mid July.

[Captain Shortwave]

Indeed! The gfs predictions for the end of this week only a few days ago was for dry fine weather, in reality we have the opposite. Unfortunately ,we will have the posters trying to find heatwaves, and misleading newbies!  Its getting very tiresome tbh, Look out for trends etc but what I don't see from the models is nothing but changeable. The absolute FI is T+96.

So the trend shown on all models and ensembles is for the Azores high building north eastwards by the 6th July, ECM is slower than the rest but it's still evident. I've never stated any heatwaves just the fact that the weather is likely to improve as we moved into July. 

Yet you can state that the weather for the foreseeable will be poor for the UK despite little if any back up from the models. Surely declaring the weather will be rubbish because it's the UK is a lot worse for newbies than saying we might have a heatwave coming up soon which actually has some model and teleconnectic evidence. Sure it might change but we can't assume just because it's the UK. We can get nice weather sometimes

[Summer Sun]

The ECM monthly Birmingham Ensemble has done a complete u turn from a week ago temperature for the bulk of July now look to be average to above average at times compare to below average this time last week

 

Max temps

 

 

Mean temp is also at or above average

 

 

And finally rainfall remains extremely low

 

 

GFS precipitation forecast out to mid July

 

[shedhead]

looking like it was a rogue run, however over the last several years theres always been fi heatwaves only for them to disappear closer to reality, i see pushing back and downgrading of 'nice' spells so im very sceptical that one so far off will actually happen.

Indeed Mushy, the overnight runs scream donkey>stick>carrot to me once again, with any hope of a fine, warm and settled spell remaining in FI at this stage. Back on Monday/Tuesday all the main models held the promise of some very warm, sunny weather through the coming weekend and into next week, but the reality looks much different this morning, with very average conditions set to predominate across the reliable timeframe. Just as in winter when chasing cold and snow the summer heat seekers will no doubt point to the fact things look considerable better in a week or soes time, but the reality is things have looked better in a week or soes time on several occasions this summer, but we are still waiting for a nationwide warm, sunny spell.... and that wait looks set to go on. 

Edited June 28, 2013 by shedhead

[draztik]

Unfortunately, i am one of those "newbies" who was taken in by all this talk of an impending good spell. I told my son, who is visiting Glastonbury, that he would be wise to pack summer clothes, as opposed to jackets etc... Woke up this morning to a text saying "we were deluged yesterday, thanks for your forecast :)"

I just hope the models we are seeing can become more consistent and we see this fine spell of weather most of us would cherish!!

[UV-RAY]

Indeed Mushy, the overnight runs scream donkey>stick>carrot to me once again, with any hope of a fine, warm and settled spell remaining in FI at this stage. Back on Monday/Tuesday all the main models held the promise of some very warm, sunny weather through the coming weekend and into next week, but the reality looks much different this morning, with very average conditions set to predominate across the reliable timeframe. Just as in winter when chasing cold and snow the summer heat seekers will no doubt point to the fact things look considerable better in a week or soes time, but the reality is things have looked better in a week or soes time on several occasions this summer, but we are still waiting for a nationwide warm, sunny spell.... and that wait looks set to go on.

I have to agree unfortunately, we're falling into the same trap as we do in winter chasing phantom Easterlies. IMO the weather looks average at best for the foreseeable, although that doesn't mean we won't see some pleasant warmth and sunshine and compared to the last few years this summer is already on a better footing than previous ones.

[ANYWEATHER]

Unfortunately, i am one of those "newbies" who was taken in by all this talk of an impending good spell. I told my son, who is visiting Glastonbury, that he would be wise to pack summer clothes, as opposed to jackets etc... Woke up this morning to a text saying "we were deluged yesterday, thanks for your forecast :)"

I just hope the models we are seeing can become more consistent and we see this fine spell of weather most of us would cherish!!

My point exactly! Take notice of some of the more sensible posts and there are some very good posters on here with which I have a lot of respect.  

[stainesbloke]

Some very mixed weather being shown by the main models coming up in the reliable timeframe. GFS shows a fairly unsettled scenario til later next week with some strong high pressure building in and staying over or near the UK til the end of the run. ECM is leaning towards a cool NW flow and UKMO is showing mostly unsettled conditions, though no washouts are indicated. As others have said pressure rises and warmth continue to be shown in FI, the question is how much do we believe that?

[Tamara]

looking at day 1 and 10 on the ecm op upper pattern. Note that ten days ago, we werent supposed to have the trough just to our east by day 11. Just saying that this repeating trough into nw europe which seems to now have been pushed a bit further east by the azores high just wont go away come verification.

A couple of days ago there did appear to be the best signs we have seen yet that this Atlantic High/UK and european trough pattern would yield but there was always the caveat attached to this that it was still 8 to 10 days out. As yesterday, I still think that eventually a settled spell will emerge around the end of next week and that the ECM is correct with its delay in these proceedings. However I think that the sort of classic mediterranean spell the models were suggesting a few days ago is unlikely and that the settled spell won't be a complete pattern changer as such. Time will tell as usual

Edited June 28, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Evening thunder]

From my view point it's hardly like all the models suddenly show cool unsettled weather with the ensembles showing below average temps and above average rain or anything like that?

 

There is still quite a lot of decent weather in the models this morning, I only see the ECM showing less in the way of this after day 7 or so but an improvement from yesterday and not a disaster.

 

I also seem to get the impression there is a slight case of double standards here.. i.e those accusing others of looking at good charts in FI and saying it is unsettled in the reliable time frame and saying good weather is always in FI, have on different occasions looked to FI and trends there themselves when it is shown more unsettled instead (and maybe when it's more settled in the reliable timeframe), i.e the 'collapse from the NW' some were talking about a few days ago? given these trends are talked about why can't people talk about trends to settled/warm wither and higher pressure in FI? 

Admittedly people could state that there's uncertainty more (so not to mislead any newbies as some say) but I doubt it's just those posting warm/settled charts that don't do that.

I'm not going to fall under the illusion that something akin to todays GFS FI is likely, but neither will I that we will be unsettled for the foreseeable with no sign of summery weather down the line.

 

To me the average of the various outputs/ensembles etc still point to things probably becoming more settled/warmer in general especially towards the south after about day 7, as per the Met Office outlooks. Whether this trend comes to fruition we will have to wait and see. 

Also there is some decent weather in places in the reliable timeframe, i.e here today if the forecasts are correct, and Sunday for some areas. 

Edited June 28, 2013 by Stormmad26

[shedhead]

My point exactly! Take notice of some of the more sensible posts and there are some very good posters on here with which I have a lot of respect.  

Like a gamber who puts a tenner on at 6-1 and only sees their £70 being returned, many on here only see the best case senario in the charts, whether that be winter cold or summer heat. It was easy and perhaps very tempting to look at the ECM heatfest shown on Weds last and assume it was going to happen, but of course when it subsequently starts to look unlikely the mood in here nosedives...as we see so often in winter when snow and ice are the equally elusive quarry.

 

As has been said already on many occasions this month things are considerably better than last June and the prospects going into July are very encouraging, if sunny, warm weather floats your particular boat that is. True the reliable timeframe is nowhere near as good as many hoped for a few days ago, but it will be usable for most and as such shouldn't be considered poor in any way... indeed if perspective is needed just think back to the British GP at Silverstone last year.

 

Again as is often said in Winter folks need to manage expectations and not get constantly suckered in by eye candy charts, especially those past +T+120hrs.  Listen to the few wise sages that time and time again suggest following the big picture, especially the 10 day 500mb anom charts, which whilst still far from infallible do give a much clearer, less rollercoastery (like that word) view of future prospects.

Edited June 28, 2013 by shedhead

[joggs]

Draztik, best advice i can give is see the trends in the models over time for continuity along with the met office extended range and John homes musings on the 500mb charts along with teits gut instincts for compelling viewing lol.I miss Dave in the summer lol. And like you say dont get sucked into the way of people who bang 56 charts up showing glorious heat/cold when its all f.i. With a 5% chance of coming off lol.

[Captain Shortwave]

Yet again I feel a little frustrated here. Apart from transient ridges giving a day or so of warmer tropical maritime air, the earliest the Azores high was set to build was around the 5th of July. Which GFS/GEM still suggests. I have not seen any promise from any model of anything other than standard summer fair before this date.

[mincemeat]

Unfortunately, i am one of those "newbies" who was taken in by all this talk of an impending good spell. I told my son, who is visiting Glastonbury, that he would be wise to pack summer clothes, as opposed to jackets etc... Woke up this morning to a text saying "we were deluged yesterday, thanks for your forecast :)"I just hope the models we are seeing can become more consistent and we see this fine spell of weather most of us would cherish!!

I Know the feeling, "Newbie" here too!

Told everyone at work that next week is going to be a scorcher and attempted to describe the Azores high and different placements of the jetstream.

Think i have learned my lesson well!

[draztik]

I Know the feeling, "Newbie" here too!

Told everyone at work that next week is going to be a scorcher and attempted to describe the Azores high and different placements of the jetstream.

Think i have learned my lesson well!

 

Yes, though as some still suggest (and that we can see from some models), there is a chance of better weather from the 6th onwards. But I suppose the lesson I have learned is to focus on 'chance', and not to get too carried away - such as telling my son about heat at Glastonbury and the Mrs we would need a new barbecue, who laughed and said 'as if we will need that'...ha!!

 

Thing is, only a few days ago, netweather and many forum members were saying this weekend and most of next week would be glorious, and now, the models show a very average setup. So, though it is showing better weather from the 6th of July onwards, I'll wait until a few days before, to verify.

 

This has definitely opened my eyes, and I wont be jumping the gun from here on in!

[johnholmes]

to the two 'newbies' who have courageously posted, thank you, you will soon learn those who give pretty unbiased views of the models and those who pick and choose to suit their agenda be that mild or cold and snow in winter or hot, sunny, stormy in summer. There is really nothing the admin/mods on here can do about this other than stop personal insults and move those posts that are obviously off topic and for another thread.

We are all weather enthusiasts and our preferences do come to the fore at times and this can lead to unpleasantness which the team does their best to moderate. Remember they are weather enthusiasts just as everone else is and like most of us they do have other lives away from Net Weather, even Paul M believe it or not! So if someone is annoying you press the report button and they will take a look and act as they feel appropriate.

 

Do enjoy the model thread or the more leisurely one, most of us that post in there are usually not at all technical and it is often easier to read the up to date ideas of folk, especially in the frenetic winter periods when cold and snow are expected/hoped for. Take a look at the Net Wx Guides, there is masses of information in there which should help you understand what the models can and cannot show and guide you into such diverse matters as storms, snow, GFS and other model outputs and how to use them, etc etc.

 

We don't often say it here but I am sure everyone says welcome to any new folk over the last few weeks, come in, enjoy and learn, something we all do all the time no matter how much experience we have.

 

 

end of jh sermon!

[Frosty.]

I don't understand all the negativity on here this morning, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending in the right direction and we have already had some very encouraging operational 0z output from the ecm & gem in particular, as far as I can see, we are still on track for a warmer and settled spell to develop in early July which could last for a while. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Another good GFS run there with heights building around the 5th July and anchoring over the top of us. 

 

The one thing to take from FI in general from the GFS is that once this high gets in, it's there till the end of the run, perhaps suggesting a potential lengthy spell of settled weather with the Azores high playing ball.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

John, thanks for the kind welcome - certainly an enthusiast when it comes to the weather, and enjoy reading most peoples opinions on here, even the more eccentric views - I may have only started posting, but have observed for the last few weeks or so.

Don't want this to go off-topic, so I'll leave it at that! And get back to chasing the elusive British summer....

[johnholmes]

cheers d,

 

I don't believe it, jh forgot his pet hobby horse-please new folk can you put your nearest town in your avatar, when you get a storm or a foot of snow it's good to know just where this is occurring

 

many thanks

Edited June 28, 2013 by johnholmes

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'm not sure where all the negativity is coming from... I haven't seen any major downgrades?

 

It's has been the case for a number of days that the settled weather would build in from around the 4th or 5th, yesterday at about t192 is now at t168.

 

GFS t168 ......................... .......................... BOM t168

 

The ECM takes another 24/48 hours to get there, but is a clear improvement, to me, on yesterdays 12z. Plus, the ECM ensemble mean continues to look closer like the half way house between the GFS and the ECM operational, so there's another positive.

 

The trend to me is still very clearly towards warmer, more settled conditions into the first week of July, and after a half decent June too.

There are still no signs of the Greenland High that ruined much of the last 6 summer. Chin up folks!

[Scorcher]

I don't understand all the negativity on here this morning, the Ecm 00z ensemble mean is trending in the right direction and we have already had some very encouraging operational 0z output from the ecm & gem in particular, as far as I can see, we are still on track for a warmer and settled spell to develop in early July which could last for a while. 

 

I agree Frosty, but quite a lot it is being led by the usual ringleaders for the negativity and cynicism who are on my ignore list- unfortunately they keep being quoted by others which then means I still have to read their posts!

 

GFS 06Z is looking good after 144 hrs with high pressure beginning to build from the south- right on the edge of the reliable time frame. It's a cracker from then on with high pressure firmly establishing itself and the heat building nicely.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Scorcher

[Buzzit]

Models are a strange lot, out of interest Looking at 6z output from GFS and NAE, the GFS was a lot more accurate for 12pm today. Yet both have precipitation in practically the same place for 6pm today

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Walkinglad2013]

How are the models looking for Mexico and the Caribbean for July 6th 2013

[Dusk1983]

Yes, though as some still suggest (and that we can see from some models), there is a chance of better weather from the 6th onwards. But I suppose the lesson I have learned is to focus on 'chance', and not to get too carried away - such as telling my son about heat at Glastonbury and the Mrs we would need a new barbecue, who laughed and said 'as if we will need that'...ha!!

 

Thing is, only a few days ago, netweather and many forum members were saying this weekend and most of next week would be glorious, and now, the models show a very average setup. So, though it is showing better weather from the 6th of July onwards, I'll wait until a few days before, to verify.

 

This has definitely opened my eyes, and I wont be jumping the gun from here on in!

 

As John said there are a small number of unbiased analysts here, but I'm afraid to tell you that the over-ridding lesson is nevertheless "nobody really knows".

 

In my opinion charts beyond 3 days - yes, 3 - should not even be available. They're no better than sticking your finger in the air. People posting charts at T168 and T240... sorry, it's absolutely hilarious.

 

Check the models for today and this weekend from the last 5 days. Only in the last 48/60 hours were they progging anything like the actual conditions. Further back than that, the elusive (imaginary) high pressure was progged as taking control delivering a largely fine weekend. It hasn't happened and I'd put money on it not happening, even in another 10 days from now.

 

As for the METO, their "5 day forecasts" change constantly, usually on the day in question. That's not a forecast. Sometimes you'll know the weather before they do and experience the "downgrade" before the "forecast" even reflects it!

 

As I say - nobody really knows. It's the future, after all, and our unique geographical position means the variables are simply too complex for any number of computers (our brains) to accurately predict.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Dusk1983