Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Geordiesnow]

 Tuesday's low pressure system has seemed to have a knock on effect of delaying things slightly and the ECM/UKMO certainly don't raise heights as quick as the GFS so its something to bear in mind. 

 

One thing people may notice this week perhaps is that in the South in particular, the air will still be quite warm and humid so even though it could be wet and unusually windy for some, for some areas, it could actually feel quite summer like, especially in any drier and sunnier moments. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean goes from strength to strength from later next week onwards in the form of the strengthening azores anticyclone which builds northeast across the uk and shows an increasingly very warm and settled outlook for all parts of the uk, really excellent output this morning from the 00z operational runs too, especially the gfs, gem & ukmo.

[Tamara]

lets hope that people get what they want and others well...get what they want,its a good site this

 

meanwhile..

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

@John Holmes....thats 3 days now ive been looking....looks pretty good Sir??

Hi - and thanks

 

@WB - The Firehills, as per my signature, is just to the NE of Hastings

 

@Captain Shortwave - I was referring to the first and second lows that come along between Tuesday and Thursday from the atlantic and that the cold front on the first low could get stuck somewhere and be a trailing feature to the warm front on the next of the secondary lows that comes Weds/Thurs. It seems the case now that the second low is going to be the one that finally takes the jet stream north of the UK and allows the Azoes High to ridge north eastwards at last. This always looked like happening by the end of the week over the last 48 hrs or so, it was a case of how much amplification was on the second cold front. As you rightly say, the ECM indeed does often over amplify these at a distance - but with a flatter pattern now agreed by all the models the Tropical Maritime air is held further north and then advances further north still quicker than suggested previously. 

 

There had been so much arguing about whether there was going to be a fine spell, that it had seemed that the next five to six days weather was being ignored

 

The NAEFS anomalies depict the agreement with the low pressure complex swinging away to our north

 

 

And then High pressure taking control of the UK. For how long we don't know at this time - but it is looking increasingly probable to arrive

 

Edited June 29, 2013 by Tamara Road

[bluearmy]

certainly looking like a good spell beyond the middel of the week. How long for? Increasingly uncertain in my mind. A few days ago, it looked like setting up for a sustained period but now i can begin to see the chinks in the higher heights. I'd say a week should be reliable at this stage. thereafter, are we looking at heights withdrawing back sw again with the trough headed back towards nw europe? If we're lucky, then even this evolution may not be so awful as the wavelengths may have drifted that bit further north. Noaa were talking aout a deamplification upstream week 2. A flatter pattern could be ok for us as long as the jet is on a sw/ne axis.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z shows high pressure will need a few goes before it can build in

 

 

Next we see a low pressure system centered across Iceland pushing the high away

 

 

The high pressure has another go

 

 

Coastal areas do look somewhat fresher with mid to high teens more likely at first but inland the heat starts to build

 

 

But towards the end of the run the breakdown commences with the usual UK summer temperatures returning

 

 

Still around a week to go yet before this predicted settled spell kicks off but until in comes into a reliable time frame caution is needed as ever

Edited June 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Gefs 00z mean is just as impressive as the Ecm 00z ens mean from T+144 to T+240 hours, beyond that, there is some erosion of the fine and warm weather across northern britain but a strong ridge holds across the south and maintains the very warm and sunny weather until beyond mid July, I think there is little doubt now that a good spell of warm (potentially very warm or hot) anticyclonic weather is on the way from later next week, the fine spell starts in the south and then spreads steadily north as high pressure intensifies over the uk, it may even turn into a summer sizzler in the south.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

The Gefs 00z mean is just as impressive as the Ecm 00z ens mean from T+144 to T+240 hours, beyond that, there is some erosion of the fine and warm weather across northern britain but a strong ridge holds across the south and maintains the very warm and sunny weather until beyond mid July, I think there is little doubt now that a good spell of warm (potentially very warm or hot) anticyclonic weather is on the way from later next week, the fine spell starts in the south and then spreads steadily north as high pressure intensifies over the uk, it may even turn into a summer sizzler in the south.

 

Looking good... I think the low pressure over Iceland showing up is the key to where the temps rise that little bit more further north and how far it pushes the high away..

 

And gratz on your 14k post

[Frosty.]

Looking good... I think the low pressure over Iceland showing up is the key to where the temps rise that little bit more further north and how far it pushes the high away..

 

And gratz on your 14k post

Thanks

[Frosty.]

It's an increasingly summery met office update again, almost identical wording to yesterday, just some residual outbreaks of rain to clear away on thursday but then high pressure building in with the south/se first to improve, then the fine and warmer weather pushing steadily north across the rest of the uk in the following days, it's pretty much as the op runs and ens mean is showing with anticyclonic conditions eventually covering the whole of the uk, still a risk of some unsettled spells in the north but that would be after a good spell of fine and warm weather, the warmest, hottest conditions are likely to be across the southern half of the uk and ireland but the hottest potential probably for london and the southeast generally, we get a little taste of that tomorrow with 25c for some areas in the southeast quarter of england. There is some unsettled weather on the way next week but monday still looks fine and pleasantly warm to the southeast but not as warm as sunday, it looks cooler to the northwest with a few showers but also some sunny spells, then wet and unusually windy weather sweeping in off the atlantic but mainly targeting the northwest of the uk with just breezier and cloudier weather with bits and pieces of rain further southeast, then wednesday becomes drier but probably rather cloudy and then the big change begins from around next friday onwards with warmer and settled weather becoming more and more widespread.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Frosty039

[Tony27]

Unsettled up to the semi reliable timeframe T+96  and then afterwards pressure does rise, but for how long and strong is up for debate as per usual. Ecm looks  thundery at t+240 , and I personally would welcome that, But!!!!  

agree lets not forget that next week won't be anything special, people always seem to ignore what's going on in the reliable timeframe and skip to FI fantasy, i prefer the GFS over the ECM anyway pressure looks stronger in FI on the GFS

 

its very typical that thursday may end up like this after we thought would be the start of the heat a few days ago http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013062900/ECM1-120.GIF?29-12

[Frosty.]

 people always seem to ignore what's going on in the reliable timeframe and skip to FI fantasy,

Nobody is ignoring the reliable timeframe and the fine warm outlook has already skipped into the semi reliable timeframe now and the met office are firming up on the fine spell too, it could actually be said now that the anticyclonic and very warm outlook is set in stone, just a bit of changeable unsettled muck to get out of the way first.

[Downpour]

agree lets not forget that next week won't be anything special, people always seem to ignore what's going on in the reliable timeframe and skip to FI fantasy, i prefer the GFS over the ECM anyway pressure looks stronger in FI on the GFS

its very typical that thursday may end up like this after we thought would be the start of the heat a few days ago http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013062900/ECM1-120.GIF?29-12

You miserable get! Glorious here today,glorious and warm tomorrow. You should get out more.

[Frosty.]

You miserable get! Glorious here today,glorious and warm tomorrow. You should get out more.

Tomorrow will be even warmer with plenty of sunshine and light winds, 24-25c across southern uk,, 21-22c on monday, there is no pleasing some people.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Frosty039

[Downpour]

Tomorrow will be even warmer with plenty of sunshine and light winds, 24-25c across southern uk,, 21-22c on monday, there is no pleasing some people.

Indeed. Best summer for years already and looking great in the mid term. Unless it's 90f and stifling certain members will moan for England. Scratch that - if it were 90f they'd probably moan about the heat!

Looking like a great outlook with two good summery weekends in a row looking likely for the South.

[Tony27]

You miserable get! Glorious here today,glorious and warm tomorrow. You should get out more.

yes where you are, the sun has just come out here now properly, i've been out today it felt a bit too cool for my liking, i wouldn't describe 19c partly cloudy and breezy as glorious, tomorrow looks like a proper summers day shame its only for one day

 

up till T96 and the low is a bit further south again, and looks pretty windy on Tuesday and Wednesday too, the 06z had 21c the 12z has 19c 

Edited June 29, 2013 by Tony27

[Tony27]

Tomorrow will be even warmer with plenty of sunshine and light winds, 24-25c across southern uk,, 21-22c on monday, there is no pleasing some people.

where is the 22c for monday?,http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130629/12/51/ukmaxtemp.png

 

i would be very happy with 22c and clear skies but we all know that don't happen often, 19c with  wind and some cloud is very average, i know its the norm but it don't mean its nice

 

slight downgrade for thursday now too with cooler uppers, pressure starts to build on friday which is still 6 days away 

Edited June 29, 2013 by Tony27

[draztik]

Is it just me, or has the recently updated 12z GFS put summer on hold again? It does not look nearly as settled as the 6z

[rmc1987]

I can see why forecasting is so hard now, one minute we have a warm week to look forward to now it's not. Normal temperatures, GFS seems to lead you right down the garden path with warmth then changes it's mind.

FI is just that, yes it was nice to see some excitement on here when it was showing heat a few days back but I'd have thought most would have known it's true colours.

So tomorrow perhaps a 26c then cooling down to normal from Monday, with reliable it looking about average I'd say.

[Methuselah]

The weather will do what it will...it doesn't matter what the models say...

[Evening thunder]

yes where you are, the sun has just come out here now properly, i've been out today it felt a bit too cool for my liking, i wouldn't describe 19c partly cloudy and breezy as glorious, tomorrow looks like a proper summers day shame its only for one day

 

up till T96 and the low is a bit further south again, and looks pretty windy on Tuesday and Wednesday too, the 06z had 21c the 12z has 19c 

 

Well that's quite a lucky thing it's on a Sunday then  nice here today, looks glorious at Glastonbury at the moment.

where is the 22c for monday?,http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130629/12/51/ukmaxtemp.png

 

i would be very happy with 22c and clear skies but we all know that don't happen often, 19c with  wind and some cloud is very average, i know its the norm but it don't mean its nice

 

slight downgrade for thursday now too with cooler uppers 

 

The BBC and Met Office Websites at least show 21C in parts of the SE (19C for Luton though).

 

GFS 06Z brought the high/warmth in a bit quicker than the 00z, but you either didn't notice or comment on that. Still looking like the 5th July will be the change over as in previous days.

 

Edit: Gosh another one. The GFS 12Z isn't even out much past the 5th July yet, or wasn't when I saw the post. Why do there seem to be a cluster of miserable people from that part of the SE on here? in what is on average near the warmest part of the UK in summer.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Tony27]

gone is 24c for friday and replaced with 21c 22c, some places in the east only 19c but of course still time for upgrades or further downgrades at that range

[Methuselah]

Sometimes, I think things would be a lot calmer on here, if the GFS didn't run four times a day...

[049balt]

Sometimes, I think things would be a lot calmer on here, if the GFS didn't run four times a day...

That would be no fun!

[Tony27]

Well that's quite a lucky thing it's on a Sunday then  nice here today, looks glorious at Glastonbury at the moment.

 

The BBC and Met Office Websites at least show 21C in parts of the SE (19C for Luton though).

 

GFS 06Z brought the high/warmth in a bit quicker than the 00z, but you didn't comment on that. Still looking like the 5th July will be the change over as in previous days.

 

Edit: Gosh another one. The GFS 12Z isn't even out much past the 5th July yet. Why do there seem to be a cluster of miserable people from that part of the SE on here? in what is on average near the warmest part of the UK in summer.

yes but we are commenting on the current GFS and UKMO update, not the bbc forecast and monday looks cool going by the GFS, in fact the 12z is a downgrade on the 06z for the whole week no matter how people try to dress it up, its not awful of course, but its just plain old average, but as weather enthusiasts we want to see something interesting, next weekend still looks good lets hope that low don't end up crashing through us

 

by the way im living in bedford atm so must update my location thingy

Edited June 29, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows high pressure building at t144

 

 

As does GFS

 

 

However there is a deep low pressure system developing in the Atlantic which will go one of 2 ways up to Iceland keeping the bulk of the UK settled or it will come to the UK pushing the high away

 

 

EDIT

 

Good news folks the low does indeed miss the UK

 

 

+16 uppers pushing into southern England

 

 

 

The high continues its journey north east which leaves the UK open to rain developing in places

 

 

Edited June 29, 2013 by Summer Sun