Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Tony27]

tuesday now looks wet, and rainbands always move through quicker than the models suggest, thats something that i've noticed recently, so no way will it be 20c in the south like the GFS suggests, more rain is forecast for wednesday in the north and no doubt that will end up further south too, and wed and thurs now looks very average temps wise, we will probably end up with a full on northerly north-westerly by later next week

 

i feel sick

Edited June 28, 2013 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

Sunday looks good for the midlands southwards if the sun breaks through, favoured area like where I live could touch 80f

Otherwise same story, complex series of troughs barrel close to the uk and then pressure builds by the end of the week like the last few runs

Though saying that this run could throw something completely different here. More of a North/South split developing with a more active atlantic

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Panayiotis]

tuesday now looks wet, and rainbands always move through quicker than the models suggest, thats something that i've noticed recently, so no way will it be 20c in the south like the GFS suggests, more rain is forecast for wednesday in the north and no doubt that will end up further south too and wed and thurs now looks very average temps wise, we will probably end up with a full on northerly by next weekend

I dont get this post, can it not rain and be 20C in the UK? Anyway the rain is not expected in the areas shown to reach 20C until later on...

Edited June 28, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Geordiesnow]

I dont see this trend at all. I feel you have seen the ECM and just thought oh well its the more unsettled outlook thus it must be right. Not saying its wrong but from the models which go beyond the 4th/5th july when the ridging is forecast, all models are against the ECM imo.

 

Those going for High pressure dont get it going till about the 5th July and this hasnt changed in the last 24 hours imo.

 

I wonder what yourself and the 7 members who liked your post think of the output at the moment? I think my post was reasonable in suggesting that the output has moved from the Azores high retreating for the outlook to become more unsettled? I see no change on today's runs really. I seen the ECM run yesterday and took little notice of the height rises as it was FI but for the start of next week, it does look like it could be reletively unsettled. 

 

Too show you how unremarkable temps are, parts of the Arctic Ocean could be MILDER than parts of the UK next week! Says it all really. 

 

Aslong as heights remain low across Greenland, there is more chance of the Azores high trying to ridge in again but its not until quite far in the medium term this could be a possibility. 

[Summer Sun]

GFS continues to show high pressure slowly edging northwards next weekend but not to the extent of previous runs

 

[Tony27]

I dont get this post, can it not rain and be 20C in the UK? Anyway the rain is not expected in the areas shown to reach 20C until later on...

yes but i said that rain usually comes in quicker than the models forecast so if the rain was right over the east at 3pm it won't be 20c more like 17 or 18c and it will feel pretty rubbish

 

GFS still goes for a warm up by next weekend but heat is always shown at 7 days away zzzzzzzzzzzz

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013062812/gfs-0-192.png?12

and whats the betting the same old story happens the low ends up further south?

 

i won't be positive for the sake of it, cos quite frankly there is nothing to be positive about, i will be by next thursday if the charts still look good for next weekend but i will not be fooled by these silly super heatwave FI charts again like i have been a bit recently even though i should already know better 

Edited June 28, 2013 by Tony27

[Summer Sun]

GFS still has high pressure building as we move into week 2 of July

 

[Captain Shortwave]

yes but i said that rain usually comes in quicker than the models forecast so if the rain was right over the east at 3pm it won't be 20c more like 17 or 18c and it will feel pretty rubbish

 

GFS still goes for a warm up by next weekend but heat is always shown at 7 days away zzzzzzzzzzzz

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013062812/gfs-0-192.png?12

and whats the betting the same old story happens the low ends up further south?

We could hit 26 degrees on Sunday, that's pretty good to be honest

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z shows the azores anticyclone finally becoming our friend for a change, it decides to have a holiday over the uk, these charts are excellent for those seeking a prolonged spell of warm or very warm dry and sunny weather, these charts also have support since the met office update today is looking increasingly positive about a more summery outlook.

[Captain Shortwave]

at least summer is on a sunday this year then

why have you ignored the weather for the next 7 days and skipped to fantasy world, do you ever learn your lesson

well if you have one BBQ in the year this is your time to shine 

[phil nw.]

Come on folks let's not fall out over different views.

A couple of unfriendly posts have been deleted.We don't wish to stifle discussion but we need to keep things sensible.

We know the charts change and evolve but please refrain from attacking members who actually post images alongside their views-that is what this thread is all about.

If you disagree then please do likewise.

 

Let's keep the thread enjoyable for all.

 

Thank you.

Edited June 28, 2013 by phil nw.

[stainesbloke]

GFS 12z shows a fairly unsettled week to come with low pressure barreling past Scotland on Tue and Wed. From Fri onwards a rise in pressure is shown and this is modelled to hold on or near the UK until near the end of the run. So, a possibly warm Sunday IF cloud clears. Some rain next week and likely a lot of cloud and wind, then warming up significantly. Any heat/sun firmly in FI again so again more runs needed.

[Captain Shortwave]

I guess just for balance the GEM this afternoon was pretty dire,

 

 

 

Ridging seems brief and pretty much shows a northerly toppler set up before the next low moves in

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS ens still look very good, if anything stronger on the ridge building than the previous run

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Evening thunder]

tuesday now looks wet, and rainbands always move through quicker than the models suggest, thats something that i've noticed recently, so no way will it be 20c in the south like the GFS suggests, more rain is forecast for wednesday in the north and no doubt that will end up further south too, and wed and thurs now looks very average temps wise, we will probably end up with a full on northerly north-westerly by later next week

 

i feel sick

 

Why do you feel sick? It's not a new revelation that Tuesday looks unsettled with low pressure having influence over the UK. Of course the details of exact rain band placements and intensities will change from run to run. A northerly is possible like almost any weather type, but more unlikely than what the models show and that's the best info we have at the moment.

 

I wonder what yourself and the 7 members who liked your post think of the output at the moment? I think my post was reasonable in suggesting that the output has moved from the Azores high retreating for the outlook to become more unsettled? I see no change on today's runs really. I seen the ECM run yesterday and took little notice of the height rises as it was FI but for the start of next week, it does look like it could be reletively unsettled. 

 

Too show you how unremarkable temps are, parts of the Arctic Ocean could be MILDER than parts of the UK next week! Says it all really. 

 

Aslong as heights remain low across Greenland, there is more chance of the Azores high trying to ridge in again but its not until quite far in the medium term this could be a possibility. 

 

I don't think I liked that post but I think pretty much what I thought before really, i.e most models are trending towards warmer and settled weather building in about a weeks time. That trend is still very much there, and before that may be slightly more unsettled now but it looked changeable yesterday too. Not really sure of the problem you have with that post or the 7 that showed their agreement by liking it? Also one model run not supported by it's own ensembles which is how it stood last night is hardly a trend.

If you are disappointed with changes to this general theme (for say the 5th July onwards) in the last couple days then really you are concentrating too much on the detail at that time frame.

 

Must admit I'd like to see that part of the Arctic Ocean having higher surface temps than the UK next week. It's not like the UK is unusually cold at the moment.

 

Personally I felt more pessimistic than usual after seeing the ECM last night, but am slightly relieved today that it's ensembles last night showed it had little support, and this morning's operational was an improvement with plenty of models still keeping the warmer settled mid term trend today and the best Met Office 6-15 day outlook yet.

Of course, there's almost a week of weather that we seem to be mostly ignoring (including me) in this thread before we get there.

 

FWIW the BBC just said it we're looking at the mid 20's plus in the SE on Sunday and it could be the warmest day of the year so far (higher than 26C then) I know that's not relevant to those further north or west but it's relevant to a few contributors to this thread.

 

Seems like this post has turned into a longer one than I intended again!

Edited June 28, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Frosty.]

so are we supposed to be grateful that we will see one warm/hot day in summer now is that how bad its become

 

tuesday wasn't supposed to be wet at all, albeit it wasn't supposed to be very warm either, but wednesday onwards the models were showing nice warm temps, now its back to plain old average and the heat is delayed yet again, so why are people talking about possible heat next weekend as if its gonna happen? no point talking about it till midweek thats if its still showing of course

There is 27 celsius possible in the southeast on sunday, it looks a great day across southern britain for sporting and outdoor events with max temps of 23-26c widely across england and wales, then after a mini cooler spell next week it's set to become warmer and more generally settled over time. All this whinging today is really pathetic but not surprising considering who is doing it.

[Captain Shortwave]

so are we supposed to be grateful that we will see one warm/hot day in summer now is that how bad its become

 

tuesday wasn't supposed to be wet at all, albeit it wasn't supposed to be very warm either, but wednesday onwards the models were showing nice warm temps, now its back to plain old average and the heat is delayed yet again, so why are people talking about possible heat next weekend as if its gonna happen? no point talking about it till midweek thats if its still showing of course

No but Sunday must be mentioned by the countless posts saying how much of a write off the weekend is. Actually given the weather forecast and the predicted temperatures compared to the model runs a few days ago, there is very little difference (we were quoting 26/27 degrees for Sunday).

Tuesday/Wednesday were always forecast to be the bad days of next week with fronts pushing west to east (East having a reasonably day on Tuesday, vice versa Wednesday)

Yet again not everyone has been ramping heat for next weekend, just looking and acknowledging the trend for high pressure to build through the UK from the 5th July onwards, movement of the high looking good for potential very warm weather for the weekend onwards. Why should we talk about it, because it's model discussion

[Northern Sky]

so are we supposed to be grateful that we will see one warm/hot day in summer now is that how bad its become tuesday wasn't supposed to be wet at all, albeit it wasn't supposed to be very warm either, but wednesday onwards the models were showing nice warm temps, now its back to plain old average and the heat is delayed yet again, so why are people talking about possible heat next weekend as if its gonna happen? no point talking about it till midweek thats if its still showing of course

I suppose because this is the model output discussion thread and well, people want to talk about the model output...If people are looking for heat and that's what the models show - albeit in FI - then it's only the same as looking at snowy charts in winter FI. There are people who talk about it and even get a bit excited by the prospect while at the same time realising that it's only a possibility, therefore not becoming too fed up when it doesn't happen.Personally, I'm rather pleased that all the heat is staying in FI because while I love sunshine I can't stand humid, horrible, airless heat and the sleepless nights and miserable days that come with it.

[Costa Del Fal]

Very excessive pessimism in here today. A shame. My views still heavily lean to the very warm/hot spell in July right now. That doesnt make me a cherry picker/optimist or whatever the junk people are commenting in here today. Thats just where my thoughts go a long with the background/long term signals. Ian Fergusson on Points West tonight even mentioned that July could turn decidedly summer like!

 

On the UKMO tonight, if the model went beyond 144 I would say High pressure would definitely be incoming. Its already building in the last frame and there is no real low pressure waiting in the west/NW. Also it matches nicely with the high building around the 4th and 5th.

 

There WILL be more changes to come and it wont be straight forward as it never is. I expect temperatures to be downgraded on the GFS somewhat as we near this spell should it occur as it likes to go rather over the top but imo, little is changing about the 5th July onwards which is when the high has ALWAYS been forecasted from and little has changed there unlike what some would want you to believe on here.

 

I would actually like to see the doomongers BACK Up their posts with some charts. At least the rest are doing so.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Blizzards

[Summer Sun]

Following on from the 06z ensembles the 12's show this exceptionally dry spell continuing for a long time yet what they also show again is a drop in the uppers right at the end they showed this a few days back before it got dropped so now worry for now just something to keep an eye on longer term but short term temperatures will start to creap up from tomorrow and when the sun is out long enough we could see the high 20's in places

 

[Tony27]

There is 27 celsius possible in the southeast on sunday, it looks a great day across southern britain for sporting and outdoor events with max temps of 23-26c widely across england and wales, then after a mini cooler spell next week it's set to become warmer and more generally settled over time. All this whinging today is really pathetic but not surprising considering who is doing it.

thats what the GFS says, the bbc 5 dayer has 22c and cloudy for luton and 23c and partly cloudy for london on sunday

 

mini cooler spell? we have had enough of this "mini cool spells" recently, im sick of them, the problem is people are always in denial and never seem to learn there lesson over past downgrades and always live in false hope, i live in realism

[Captain Shortwave]

thats what the GFS says, the bbc 5 dayer has 22c and cloudy for luton and 23c and partly cloudy for london on sunday

 

mini cooler spell? we have had enough of this "mini cool spells" recently, im sick of them, the problem is people are always in denial and never seem to learn there lesson over past downgrades and always live in false hope, i live in realism

Very rarely do we get a summer with no very warm spells whatsoever. Even last year the temperature topped out at about 30 degrees in London just before the Olympics. Not every "good" chart is a false dawn.

To say every warm chart is a lie and will downgrade is about as unrealistic as thinking we will have endless heatwaves during the summer like 2003

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

 i live in realism

Actually you are always posting negative moans about how poor the weather is in luton, very imby opinions which has nothing to do with the uk weather as a whole, you really should try harder.

[Tony27]

 

so tuesday was always mean't to be wet was it

[BornFromTheVoid]

The BOM fully supports the 12z GFS with high pressure in control for most of the British Isles by t168.

 

BOM t168 ............................................ BOM t192

 

Same general pattern with the BOM and UKMO at t144

 

BOM t144 ................................................ UKMO t144

 

So far, very strong support for the Azores ridge to make it's way towards us from about t144 now.

 

 

Now down to the ECM to join in the fun!