Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Frosty.]

How are the models looking for Mexico and the Caribbean for July 6th 2013

Mexico has a 10% risk of showers with max temp of 22c 72f  and minimum overnight temperature of 14c 57f and a NE'ly breeze at approx 2 mph

 

Caribbean has a 50% risk of T-Storms with partly cloudy skies and max temp of 33c 91F and minimum overnight temperature of 27c 81f with ESE'ly winds of 10-15 km/h

 

hope that helps : -  )

Edited June 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[Tamara]

I'm not sure there has been any negativity. Its very easy to post very appealing charts from a distance with optimism.  Better some cautious watching, especially in terms of a pattern that has been very stubborn to yield for a very considerable time and with a few false dawns. Sooner or later the better charts do come to fruition - and then I am sure most people will welcome them completely.

 

I think that cautious and consistent analysis has been pointing to a better spell of weather into July but this is a gradual process and not every output is going to reel the better weather in.

[tempestwatch]

Given the models are all fickle (some more or less than others) they do seem to be pointing in the general direction of a fine spell, possibly elongated into July. Where do the current model projections fit in with the long term summer forecast which was for lower than average pressure with possibly wetter conditions. What has changed in this, is it the fact that the heights over Greenland are not what they were last year?

Forgive me if this is a stupid question, i am a relative newby and was just curious at the projected change from what Netweathers possible July scenario was showing.

[shedhead]

06 GFS maintains the 'jam tomorrow' theme, but unlike recently there does seem to be less chance of the jam snatcher returning again early next week, with some decent consistancy emerging about a strong and potentially far more robust rise of pressure from the SW. Still plenty of water to flow under the bridge first, as well as fall out of the sky, but imo the prospect of the first widespread fine, warm and sunny interlude is slowly gathering momentum.

 

Edit: Completely agree Tamara, reality can and often does get labelled as neagativity. Most emotional troughs (which are often perceived as negativity) only exist because of the emotional peaks previously and often falsely created.

 

It's wiser to ride the waltzer rather than the rollercoaster in this weather themepark....

Edited June 28, 2013 by shedhead

[Weather Boy]

I would like to try and ease some of the newbie confusion by posting an objective assessment of the expected weather from the 3 main models.

Firstly, following today’s rain clearing eastern parts (courtesy of a small trough now just to the NE of us) we have a benign but perhaps unexciting weekend, bringing sunshine and pleasant conditions in the south, with perhaps a few showers and certainly breezier in Scotland and the north, especially those exposed to the Atlantic.

 

Illustrate with the latest ECM showing LP on Sunday near Iceland influencing the weather in the far north: the south at least more influenced by the HP to the SW.

 

 

After the weekend, all models are agreed that the influence of the LP extends south for a few days and I would expect all areas to see some rain, but heaviest and most prolonged in the north, especially the north-west.  See how the Azores High retreats to its home in, er, the Azores, such that by Tuesday at the latest it is having little or no influence over the weather in the UK, allowing the Atlantic fontal systems in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That said, there are no dartboard lows, so I wouldn’t expect anything out of the ordinary for the summer.  Cool-ish with rain at times, given the source of the W to NW flow, is the early to mid-week picture.

 

Thereafter, from Thursday onwards, it seems likely that this is going to change.  The UKMO doesn’t go out this far, so we don’t know what it says, but the last ECM and pretty much all the GFS runs are agreed that there should be a strong build of HP which will gradually build up heat (to what extent is unclear) towards the next weekend and perhaps beyond.  See the ECM:

 

 

And the GFS for just a little earlier:

 

 

The confusion and moaning is centred round yesterday evening’s ECM run which presented a very different picture:

 

 

If this verified, it would be very much ‘close but no cigar’ although one could put a strong case that it is indicative of ridging just after that after the trough clears East.  We don’t know as this is the last frame.

 

I think that there is a strong case that this is a rogue run.  It has been undermined by its subsequent output and as I understand it was not hugely supported by its ensembles, although not totally adrift as an outlier.  As I mentioned, it could be argued that this run just delays rather than prevents the settled spell, but we shall never know.

 

We are informed by the Met that the GFS is almost disregarded beyond that time range and the ECM (at least in public) goes no further, so it’s hard to say what will happen from 8 July onwards.  However, assuming that yesterday’s ECM is a rogue and doesn’t verify, the charts do generally seem settled and my instinct would be to say that it seems likely that there won’t be a prompt breakdown in that pattern early that week.

 

Contrary to the impression given by some posts (some of which I’m afraid belong in the moaning and banter thread) the models have been very consistent for some time now showing a window of unsettled weather next week (as well as now) and then more settled, with the chance of significant heat as next week grows old.  Yesterday’s ECM is the exception and, unless it gets some support sharpish, is probably heading towards the waste bin.

 

That’s the current position, in my view.

[shedhead]

I would like to try and ease some of the newbie confusion by posting an objective assessment of the expected weather from the 3 main models.

Firstly, following today’s rain clearing eastern parts (courtesy of a small trough now just to the NE of us) we have a benign but perhaps unexciting weekend, bringing sunshine and pleasant conditions in the south, with perhaps a few showers and certainly breezier in Scotland and the north, especially those exposed to the Atlantic.

 

Illustrate with the latest ECM showing LP on Sunday near Iceland influencing the weather in the far north: the south at least more influenced by the HP to the SW.

 

 

After the weekend, all models are agreed that the influence of the LP extends south for a few days and I would expect all areas to see some rain, but heaviest and most prolonged in the north, especially the north-west.  See how the Azores High retreats to its home in, er, the Azores, such that by Tuesday at the latest it is having little or no influence over the weather in the UK, allowing the Atlantic fontal systems in:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That said, there are no dartboard lows, so I wouldn’t expect anything out of the ordinary for the summer.  Cool-ish with rain at times, given the source of the W to NW flow, is the early to mid-week picture.

 

Thereafter, from Thursday onwards, it seems likely that this is going to change.  The UKMO doesn’t go out this far, so we don’t know what it says, but the last ECM and pretty much all the GFS runs are agreed that there should be a strong build of HP which will gradually build up heat (to what extent is unclear) towards the next weekend and perhaps beyond.  See the ECM:

 

 

And the GFS for just a little earlier:

 

 

The confusion and moaning is centred round yesterday evening’s ECM run which presented a very different picture:

 

 

If this verified, it would be very much ‘close but no cigar’ although one could put a strong case that it is indicative of ridging just after that after the trough clears East.  We don’t know as this is the last frame.

 

I think that there is a strong case that this is a rogue run.  It has been undermined by its subsequent output and as I understand it was not hugely supported by its ensembles, although not totally adrift as an outlier.  As I mentioned, it could be argued that this run just delays rather than prevents the settled spell, but we shall never know.

 

We are informed by the Met that the GFS is almost disregarded beyond that time range and the ECM (at least in public) goes no further, so it’s hard to say what will happen from 8 July onwards.  However, assuming that yesterday’s ECM is a rogue and doesn’t verify, the charts do generally seem settled and my instinct would be to say that it seems likely that there won’t be a prompt breakdown in that pattern early that week.

 

Contrary to the impression given by some posts (some of which I’m afraid belong in the moaning and banter thread) the models have been very consistent for some time now showing a window of unsettled weather next week (as well as now) and then more settled, with the chance of significant heat as next week grows old.  Yesterday’s ECM is the exception and, unless it gets some support sharpish, is probably heading towards the waste bin.

 

That’s the current position, in my view.

Good post WB... the truth is ECM went from showing a potential 90f max to a potential 60f max inside 24hrs, whilst at the same time the 500mb anom prediction remained virtually unchanged. If that doesn't convey just how pointless getting exited about one individual run is, even if backed by the majority of it's ensemble suite, I don't know what would.

Edited June 28, 2013 by shedhead

[Weather Boy]

Good post WB... the truth is ECM went from showing a potential 90f max to a potential 60f max inside 24hrs, whilst at the same time the 500mb anom prediction remained virtually unchanged. If that doesn't convey just how pointless getting exited about one individual run is, even if backed by the majority of it's ensemble suite, I don't know what would.

 

Correct, but you turn it both ways.  Don't get excited about one run showing what you want.  Don't panic when seeing one run that undermines what you want and expect to see.

 

As Tamara said, rare if ever do you get runs constantly turning out desirable synoptics from a 7-9 day range.  There are always wobbles.  At the moment, I'd say yesterday's ECM will prove to be a wobble, but I could easily be proved wrong.

[shedhead]

Correct, but you turn it both ways.  Don't get excited about one run showing what you want.  Don't panic when seeing one run that undermines what you want and expect to see.

 

As Tamara said, rare if ever do you get runs constantly turning out desirable synoptics from a 7-9 day range.  There are always wobbles.  At the moment, I'd say yesterday's ECM will prove to be a wobble, but I could easily be proved wrong.

Precisely, by all means enjoy a go on the rollercoaster, but do not stay on it 24hrs a day, 7 days a week... because it will make you sick.

Edited June 28, 2013 by shedhead

[samadamsuk]

Hey All.

 

For those of us who are always looking for signs of some warm/hot settled/thundery weather, model output is looking like it has done for a while, with our required outcome not exatly in the far reaches of FI, but not in the reliable time considering the recent performance of the models either, and this being a continuing theme. The pool of lower heights over the northern atlantic on both the GFS and ECM starts to see its center of mixing move west after a few transient warm sectors move across us in the next 144 Hours, then some more substancial WAA moves up across us and the high pressure starts to build, with heights aross Africa in phase to bring some heat our way.  The problem here I believe is the cycolgenesis/jet stream feedback that will shift the jet into a better trajectory SW/NE and build our high and at the same time mix west the pool of lower heights - however it looks likely that the contrast in heights across the northern US will be increasing so this outcome becomes more and more likely as cycolgenesis pulls the rotation and mixing further west

 

For the realist though, who wants to see a balanced forecast on this thread, all we can really gleam at the moment is that the AH/Synoptic Pattern is ensuring that we have a changeable pattern for the foreseeable but without a cold source of air, so not as bad as recent years so far!

 

Disclaimer: Please note, The above is my opinion only, and I'm not aiming to equip others with a balanced apraisal of where we'll end up - I'm centering on what we need to get a particular situation.

 

cheers, Sam

[Summer Sun]

Amazed at some of the negativity around today I see no downgrades from the models and temperatures still look pleasant when you get inland its only coastal areas which look to be the fresher spots (high teens instead of the mid to high 20's inland)

 

[stainesbloke]

Amazed at some of the negativity around today I see no downgrades from the models and temperatures still look pleasant when you get inland its only coastal areas which look to be the fresher spots (high teens instead of the mid to high 20's inland)

I don't think people (including me) are being especially negative, rather more frustrated at the good, settled and warm weather always being modelled a week away. It's all well and good posting lovely charts for 10 days away but (and I'm not having a go at anyone here) when the actual weather experienced bears little resemblance to those lovely charts, perhaps it's time to stop or at least post charts that offer a more balanced view.

[Frosty.]

The latest met office update is very encouraging for an increasingly warmer and settled outlook from around T+168/192 hours onwards, the fine weather slowly making progress up across the uk with scotland taking a while longer to improve but this improving pattern is shown on the Ecm 00z ensemble mean with the weather pattern changing significantly from what we have had so far, especially for the southern half of the uk, The next week or so is more mixed with outbreaks of rain and showers but also with spells of warm and bright weather, especially for southern uk, the northwest corner of the uk generally more unsettled and breezy with rain interspersed by sunshine and showers and temperatures closer to average as a result, but the further outlook is becoming more and more promising for long spells of warm to very warm and sunny weather for a large part of July.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[phil nw.]

No argument that the last few days have been disappointingly cloudy and damp at times with sunshine very limited.

It looks like this coming week continues to see the UK being affected by the wavering jet and frontal systems.The High still just too far into the Atlantic to bring blue skies and prolonged sunshine.

 

 

There will be some warm and muggy weather in the warm sectors especially further south, with this weekend a good example,but with cloudy and wet conditions for nw England,n.Ireland and parts of Scotland-a good example of the NW/SE split found with this setup.

 

Around next week end both ECM and GFS means shows the jet looping north towards Iceland as  the AH builds towards the UK.

 

The 3rd day running where mean outputs have shown this trend and the London ens graph also shows a dry start to July with signs of a warm up

 

so maybe reasons to be looking at a more widespread settled and warmer period to come.

[Frosty.]

It's all well and good posting lovely charts for 10 days away but (and I'm not having a go at anyone here) when the actual weather experienced bears little resemblance to those lovely charts, perhaps it's time to stop or at least post charts that offer a more balanced view.

It's the lovely charts that give most of us hope and it's perfectly fine to post them as this is the model output discussion and since the experts are now coming around to the idea of a warmer and more settled further outlook, it's even more appropriate to post those lovely charts as they cheer us up and have some considerable support for an upturn in fortunes for July, things are starting to look much better when we get beyond the first week of July.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[mushymanrob]

I Know the feeling, "Newbie" here too!Told everyone at work that next week is going to be a scorcher and attempted to describe the Azores high and different placements of the jetstream.Think i have learned my lesson well!

newbies ought to .be aware, there are two types of posters here. one type are the seasonal enthusiasts who concentrate on searching for summer heat or winter cold. the other is a more realistic type who post unbiasedly. trouble is, if you are looking for heat or cold you might chose to take the seasonal enthusiasts version as realists often come across as grumpy or miserable lolenjoy the site, theres loads of info.

[Frosty.]

you might chose to take the seasonal enthusiasts version as realists often come across as grumpy or miserable lol

 

That's why we have a moaning whinging thread, for the miserable so and so's.

[NorthernRab]

newbies ought to .be aware, there are two types of posters here. one type are the seasonal enthusiasts who concentrate on searching for summer heat or winter cold. the other is a more realistic type who post unbiasedly. trouble is, if you are looking for heat or cold you might chose to take the seasonal enthusiasts version as realists often come across as grumpy or miserable lol

enjoy the site, theres loads of info.

 

I wouldn't simply split it into the two camps of the dreamers and the realists, there are undoubtedly many pessimists on here. To deny that such members exist, (and rightly so, as not everyone is necessarily a glass half full sort of character) would be...unrealistic, I guess?

 

Looking ahead it's going to be a really very pleasantly warm day around London on Sunday, with 26'C a possibility. Almost all of England looks good and where the sun breaks through in Scotland, N.Ireland and Wales it'll feel warm out in the sun, especially so in the east.

 

[J10]

Last Glasto forecast for this year

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4647-glastonbury-forecast-22-and-final-28th-june/

 

Lookniny Dry and Warm for the remainder, whihc should help to dry the site out a bit.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Jackone

[samadamsuk]

Well to be honest we have missed poster type 3 who will automaticaly see any discussion of possibilities as misguiding hope-casting, automaticaly see any mention of pleasent conditions after 48 hours as a trajic, manicly volatile, dependence on the outcome that needs to be rectified by a reality check, and all the while being the main contributor to off topic posts filling up the thread with warnings and solutions on the psychology of dealing with and being open to model watching letdowns...

 

This IS one of those posts. Haha. And I like and respect each and every one of you whichever catagory you are . I'll get my coat!

[Frosty.]

Last Glasto forecast for this year

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/189/entry-4647-glastonbury-forecast-22-and-final-28th-june/

 

Lookniny Dry and Warm for the remainder, whihc should help to dry the site out a bit.

but cloudy and dry

Edited June 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[stainesbloke]

It's the lovely charts that give most of us hope and it's perfectly fine to post them as this is the model output discussion and since the experts are now coming around to the idea of a warmer and more settled further outlook, it's even more appropriate to post those lovely charts as they cheer us up and have some considerable support for an upturn in fortunes for July, things are starting to look much better when we get beyond the first week of July.

Yes, I'm not saying stop posting lovely charts, all I'm saying is stop cherry picking and post ALL options. There hasn't been an occasion this month when all models have agreed on warm and settled future conditions. Yet some have been posting lovely charts for weeks now which have not borne ANY resemblance to the actual weather experienced...all good 'cheering oneself up' but I'm interested in reality and intelligent analysis, not fantasy. If that makes me 'miserable', so be it!

[Tony27]

Amazed at some of the negativity around today I see no downgrades from the models and temperatures still look pleasant when you get inland its only coastal areas which look to be the fresher spots (high teens instead of the mid to high 20's inland)

 

for goodness sakes have you not noticed the dates of the charts that you have posted, yes Deep FI has consistently been showing heat for days now but it means nothing at this stage

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just remember, if you think people are being biased and cherry picking, there is always the option to counter them with your own charts and analysis And of course, if it gets a bit much for you, there's the "Model Banter, Moans and Ramps" thread.

 

12z GFS rolling out now. Will it remain Mr Consistent or fall the way of the ECM?

[Summer Sun]

Slight change in the position of the low mid next week but nothing major

 

06z

 

 

12z

 

 

UKMO has the centre of the low over Ireland at t96 GFS is pretty much the same

 

[Frosty.]

It could be classified as hot in the southeast on sunday with temperatures nudging 80 F, warm and sunny across most of southern and eastern uk but cooler with some showers to the northwest, so a northwest-southeast split on sunday. Monday looks cooler and fresher but still pleasantly warm with sunny spells in the south/se, cooler again to the northwest with some showers. On tuesday, it looks like rain and strengthening winds spreading from the west but the southeast could remain fine and pleasantly warm until late on tuesday but cooler and unsettled in the north & west.