Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[Geordiesnow]

No but Sunday must be mentioned by the countless posts saying how much of a write off the weekend is. 

 

Don't know who said that but I for one would not be one of those people, it was last weekend which myself and others have said it could of been a write off and as it turned out, whilst it was wet, most of the rainfall was of a convective nature and the rain was not as widespread as first thought. 

 

Regarding this weekend, it has always been a NW/SE split from what I seen but perhaps the trend is to edge the cold front in quicker than previous runs and this could mean the warmth will be slightly further south and East than first thought.

 

Seeing the ECM thus far, looks unsettled too me upto 144 hours, by no means a washout though and in any drier interludes, it could be sunny and fairly warm but how much sunshine there will be in a moist airflow is uncertain though.

[Tony27]

Very rarely do we get a summer with no very warm spells whatsoever. Even last year the temperature topped out at about 30 degrees in London just before the Olympics. Not every "good" chart is a false dawn.

To say every warm chart is a lie and will downgrade is about as unrealistic as thinking we will have endless heatwaves during the summer like 2003

depends what you class as a spell 2 days 3 days 5 days 7 days ?

FI has been showing heat for a few days now but will the UK really have a whole week of strong high pressure over us like it is showing, that is very very rare, Atlantic lows or troughs will pop us at short notice to ruin things and cut it down to a 3 day affair probably

Edited June 28, 2013 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

Don't know who said that but I for one would not be one of those people, it was last weekend which myself and others have said it could of been a write off and as it turned out, whilst it was wet, most of the rainfall was of a convective nature and the rain was not as widespread as first thought. 

 

Regarding this weekend, it has always been a NW/SE split from what I seen but perhaps the trend is to edge the cold front in quicker than previous runs and this could mean the warmth will be slightly further south and East than first thought.

 

Seeing the ECM thus far, looks unsettled too me upto 144 hours, by no means a washout though and in any drier interludes, it could be sunny and fairly warm but how much sunshine there will be in a moist airflow is uncertain though.

Perhaps, probably was to be honest. Just feeling a little frustrated

Anyway the ECM is yet again struggling to clear that low. Kind of laughable how it moves a good 500 miles in one day then totally stalls.

 

High pressure still building though

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

ECM is slowly getting there like this morning temperatures don't look anything special at this stage

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Actually you are always posting negative moans about how poor the weather is in luton, very imby opinions which has nothing to do with the uk weather as a whole, you really should try harder.

Frosty,with all respect , youre posts can be very negative for those who read your posts,and  believe your high pressure scenario,with heatwaves etc never to materialize!

[Tamara]

ECM at t168 has toned down the amplification of the jet stream behind the last of the two secondary low pressure systems which bring the unsettled conditions of the early to middle part of next week. However it is still more amplified than other models and there is still something of a NW flow there as the cold front clears through Weds night and during Thursday. It look like the frontal systems could get quite messy during  next week as they string back out into the atlantic along the PFJ. We are looking, on current modelling for hoping to see the jet angle change towards this time next week for the more settled signal. That has always seemed the more likely time. Before then changeable and rather unsettled sums it up - especially the further north one goes. 

 

Edited June 28, 2013 by Tamara Road

[Tony27]

Very excessive pessimism in here today. A shame. My views still heavily lean to the very warm/hot spell in July right now. That doesnt make me a cherry picker/optimist or whatever the junk people are commenting in here today. Thats just where my thoughts go a long with the background/long term signals. Ian Fergusson on Points West tonight even mentioned that July could turn decidedly summer like!

 

On the UKMO tonight, if the model went beyond 144 I would say High pressure would definitely be incoming. Its already building in the last frame and there is no real low pressure waiting in the west/NW. Also it matches nicely with the high building around the 4th and 5th.

 

There WILL be more changes to come and it wont be straight forward as it never is. I expect temperatures to be downgraded on the GFS somewhat as we near this spell should it occur as it likes to go rather over the top but imo, little is changing about the 5th July onwards which is when the high has ALWAYS been forecasted from and little has changed there unlike what some would want you to believe on here.

 

I would actually like to see the doomongers BACK Up their posts with some charts. At least the rest are doing so.

ok here are some charts for the reliable timeframe

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/51/ukmaxtemp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/75/ukmaxtemp.png 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/99/ukprec.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/126/ukmaxtemp.png

semi reliable http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013062812/ECM1-144.GIF?28-0

 

all in all very average but if rains it won't feel it if ends up cloudy with nuisance light rain, like today and yesterday, but hey lets make the most of sunday

Edited June 28, 2013 by Tony27

[johnholmes]

My plea to stop bickering and pulling other folks use of charts seems to fall on deaf ears for some as it often does.

Sad really but there we are.

'newbies' I am sure the fog of rhetoric will soon clear, your ability to read charts will improve as will your ability to put some folk on not read and report those you feel are off topic etc.

Why oh why can't we all use charts and show them, explain what we see, explain if we are only showing 3 charts supporting our view out of the GFS suite of heaven knows how many every 6 hours and leave folk to make their own minds up?

Is there any wonder that some of prefer the other thread.

Its the weather, do you treat the rest of your life as you treat this forum?

 

end of another jh plea/rant call it what you will.

Edited June 28, 2013 by johnholmes

[Costa Del Fal]

ok here are some charts for the reliable timeframe

 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/75/ukmaxtemp.png 

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/99/ukprec.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130628/12/126/ukmaxtemp.png

semi reliable http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013062812/ECM1-144.GIF?28-0

What has this got to do with the 4th/5th July onwards in response to my post?

 

ECM 12z going with the High pressure from the 5th July which I emphasise was as always expected from...

 

Before then, occasionally warm in the Southern half of the UK, cool up North with some sun and rain. What was expected... move on. Apart from some time ago from a couple of models the first few days of July were NEVER forecasted with HP.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Blizzards

[Tamara]

Aside from the bickering, the model output continues to come out with the ECM showing something of a cut off weak High pressure cell transferring across the country with perhaps a thundery plume following briefly. This is another different evolution to the ones we have seen recently. I think that the mid week period onwards is uncertain in detail - although all the modelling suggests something more settled. However how settled and how long for is still open to question

 

[A.J]

Just in case a few missed Phil nw's earlier post or did not understand it for whatever reason, let me reiterate it for you in simple english.....KEEP IT ON TOPIC AND PLEASE STOP THE PERSONAL COMMENTS AND BICKERING....

 

.....take a deep breath......feel better?....good, then perhaps we can continue with the Model Output Discussion, a place where all Model Output can be discussed, whether it's at T0 or T384...... Please posts charts (where applicable) to back up your posts, and if any member feels a post is off topic or breaks the forum guidelines then please hit the 'report' button and let the forum moderating team deal with it.....cheers!

[Evening thunder]

thats what the GFS says, the bbc 5 dayer has 22c and cloudy for luton and 23c and partly cloudy for london on sunday

 

mini cooler spell? we have had enough of this "mini cool spells" recently, im sick of them, the problem is people are always in denial and never seem to learn there lesson over past downgrades and always live in false hope, i live in realism

The BBC at 6:30 said we're looking at mid 20's + in the SE and possibly the warmest day of the year so far (and the warmest day so far is at least 26C)

 

I would expect Luton to be slightly down on the hotspots though being slightly further north and also relatively high in elevation if I remember correctly.

 

 

 

so tuesday was always mean't to be wet was it

 

It was always meant to be unsettled with the risk of rain with low pressure nearby. Also today's GFS 12Z is unlikely to be the final solution. 

 

Yesterday's GFS 12Z:

 

 

Yesterday's GFS 18Z:

 

Today's 00Z:

 

Today's 06Z:

 

 

 

Today's 12Z:

 

 

Sorry for all the charts, but they are from the last 5 GFS runs for 1pm BST (2pm French time) and all show pretty much the same theme with low pressure influencing the UK, and rain or showers possible courtesy of Atlantic frontal systems.. in fact the 12Z looks the driest for the SE at 1pm Tuesday if anything!

Sorry hopefully this is not too off topic, and shows what the GFS actually showed for Tuesday over the last 5 runs.

 

Anyway I think this is meant to be the Model Output thread, not Moaning Output thread.. Not sure I've seen you make a post without a moan in it. I saw a post where you even moaned about possible good weather during Wimbledon saying it was 'typical' because you would want to be outside so couldn't watch Wimbledon! This is fine as long as you do it in the appropriate thread please, I'm sure many would want that.

 

Sorry for a possibly slightly off topic/rant style post, Hopefully I won't make any more.

 

Edit: apologies, I did not see ajpoolshark's post before I posted this, not sure how appropriate to this thread this post will seem now or how off topic but hopefully some is relevant.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Summer Sun]

Although ECM ends settled its not looking prolonged

 

[Frosty.]

Although ECM ends settled its not looking prolonged

 

Main thing is it's better than last night.

[Captain Shortwave]

Although ECM ends settled its not looking prolonged

 

To be honest this run got very messy, the last few frames could be compared to a 5 year chucking paint at a map of Europe. Personally I feel dubious of that trough which sticks over Shetland for a full 72 hours. 

[Frosty.]

To be honest this run got very messy, the last few frames could be compared to a 5 year chucking paint at a map of Europe. Personally I feel dubious of that trough which sticks over Shetland for a full 72 hours. 

Fully agree, it won't do that.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[Evening thunder]

very true even if a bit contradictory by me so it was looking nice for ALL of next week at the time of that post i made so why should i get my hopes up again for good charts shown for 7 days away, all this talk of it wasn't mean't to be nice till 6th july is tosh

 

I think I forgot to add that the post also mentioned it being at the end of Wimbledon so missing the best matches, if so that hasn't really changed. Things may have changed or got pushed back a day or two but that isn't too unusual at that timeframe and doesn't suddenly mean none of any of the warmth etc shown will verify. Doesn't mean they definitely will verify either though of course. I do remember a few runs one day that brought high pressure in much earlier, so granted your post could have been then at the suggestion of those charts, but the main theme has always been around the 5th July if I remember correctly.

 

ECM joins/maintains the settling down theme after the 5th July, although the high doesn't look quite so 'robust' as on some other models, but it is an improvement on it's previous runs

 

t+192 6th July:

t+240 8th July:

Any details to be resolved nearer the time if the current continued trend in the models is correct. It is by no means certain of course, although it is a pretty good trend amongst models (and the Met Office outlook) compared to the uncertainty/differences that can be shown.

 

Admittedly there is perhaps more low pressure influence and cooler uppers briefly pulled in in the couple days before this compared to a couple days ago, but after this at least the general trend is still very much there for those that like warm settled weather.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Stormmad26

[ANYWEATHER]

T+240 Ecm ,I love for the fact that heat and humidity along with thunderstorm potential look prominent. But at this time range ,one can only hope!

[Methuselah]

For those predisposed to wrist-slitting: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/page-22#entry2726129

[Frosty.]

There are some positives to take from the 12z output, the gfs and ukmo in particular are nothing like as bad as the gem, I think the gfs looks best at T+144 followed by the ukmo, then the ecm 12z and navgem 12z with the gem at the bottom of the pile. As far as the settled and warmer further outlook is concerned, I think we are still on track for a very summery spell for most of July, especially for england, wales and the republic of ireland.

[BornFromTheVoid]

There is an interesting difference between the ECM and the GFS, UKMO and BOM

 

At t120 they're all quite similar, low pressure to our north and north west, higher pressure and building heights to our south and east.

 

BOM...........................................................  UKMO.............................     ................. GFS....................    ........      

 

ECM

 

By t144, the BOM, UKMO and GFS continue with low height to our north and north west, weakening and moving west a little. On the ECM they move back much further, allowing increasing heights to the east of Greenland.

 

 

This caused the ridge to move more towards Greenland than to Scandinavia on the ECM.

 

That ECM push northward toward Greenland becomes larger by t168 compared to the others, the GFS pushs north east across the British Isles, and the BOM is somewhere in between.

 

BOM..........................     ..........    ................ GFS.................   .......   ...............................ECM

 

 

The east of Greenland will be one area to keep an eye on over the next few days.

 

I wonder if the transition from the neutral and +ve AO over the last few few months to the -ve AO forecast in about 5 days might causing a few problems in the models, perhaps given different amounts of observational data in the Arctic?

Edited June 28, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[Captain Shortwave]

i think you get an unreasonably rough time here, just because you are (rightly imho) pessimistic.

I still feel the charts look the best they have done since the start of the summer. There is signal for much stronger ridge of the Azores high. For example I only started being positive being positive a few days back and was fully in the negative motif given the North Easterly gloom I've experienced here but the models and the teleconnectics are at least trying to suggest and northwards movement of the Jetstream which can only be good for us

[mushymanrob]

I still feel the charts look the best they have done since the start of the summer. There is signal for much stronger ridge of the Azores high. For example I only started being positive being positive a few days back and was fully in the negative motif given the North Easterly gloom I've experienced here but the models and the teleconnectics are at least trying to suggest and northwards movement of the Jetstream which can only be good for us

 

maybe they do, but the great looking charts always remain in fi, they are never within a reliable timeframe, they invariably get 'downgraded' closer to reality.

[Summer Sun]

Once again the ECM ensemble run is the pick

 

 

Looks like the Op has had another wobble

[Methuselah]

IMO, anyone searching for 60 days' wall-to-wall sunshine with temps always at 25C or better, are going to be disappointed...I think we should be basing our expectations according to what's average for the UK, and not for the Costa del Sol?