Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[JK1]

why is the UK such a trough magnet? troughs/low pressure seems to love us lol

Edited June 29, 2013 by JK1

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GFS looking like a stonker for heat on the latest run. It is in FI though, so it will tweak somewhat undoubtedly.

Edited June 29, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Tony27]

yep gavin on this run the low goes towards iceland but lets not take it as gospel, im dubious of this extreme high pressure that the GFS has being showing in FI for days now, how often does strong high pressure sit over the UK like that without any Atlantic attempt?  

 

so just 6 more days to wait until a spell of hot weather, if only it was that straight forward

Edited June 29, 2013 by Tony27

[Polar Maritime]

why is the UK such a trough magnet? troughs/low pressure seems to love us lol

I would say the Jet Stream our lattitude and the fact we have so much open water around us.

[Summer Sun]

yep gavin on this run the low goes towards iceland but lets not take it as gospel, im dubious of this extreme high pressure that the GFS has being showing in FI for days now, how often does strong high pressure sit over the UK like that without any Atlantic attempt?  

 

so just 6 more days to wait until a spell of hot weather, if only it was that straight forward

 

Yes I agree until its into the reliable time frame  it would be stupid to get carried away so many times before high pressure has dominated FI only to erode away in the reliable time frame

 

GFS ends with a return to unsettled, cooler weather

 

[Chris K]

Quick one from me

 

Outlooks largely the same as suggested a few days ago - likelihood of transient ridging towards the final days of June, should bring a good few days of dry weather away from the far North. Question-marks remain, as pointed out by Rob, over cloud amounts.

 

Beyond that, hints of something more unsettled once again for the start of July. Summer forecast had a strong signal for a decent spell around the middle third of July, so it will be interesting to see whether this pans out as the outputs begin to move into this period over the coming days. Incidentally, whilst there has been the expected split in the conditions for June thus far, with the first half more settled than the second overall, it has panned out a better month overall than I expected - the 'plume' (if you wish to call it that) this week has helped the CET somewhat, though given the temperature projections over the next 3-5 days, we will likely end up very close to average overall.

 

Lets hope next weeks settled spell finally brings some more widespread sunshine - I fear this will not be the case given the flow off the Atlantic

 

SK

 

 

 

Absolutely - 10-20th looked to be the period to me, though with a trip planned next weekend i'm hopeful it may be just a touch sooner!

 

MJO enters phase 3 in around 12 days time if its current projection is correct - and thats also fairly consistent with the EC32 day MJO projection. In the meantime, phase 2 offers this for July:

 

JulyPhase2500mb.gif

 

A bit of no-mans land really, with a slight troughing structure just about evident. So it looks likely to be a slow process to get to something more extensively settled.

 

GWO phase 3, which offers an azores ridge and above average T2m values also happens to coincide in current forecasts with MJO phase 3. So all the signs there, which is why I suspect the FI outputs are offering the eye candy. Its now just a case of whether it will deliver!

 

SK

 

 

I like to review posts from a few days back to see whats changed, but the models over the past day or two seem to correspond well to the above post on the 27th from Snowking in my opinion. The first I have quoted was from 21st June - result from week just gone pretty close to the mark I would say?

 

Period of interest for me now is approx 10th onwards as to whether his thoughts come to fruition or not. An Azores high transferring up over the UK and sitting to our E/NE is still appearing with each run....ok it's still in F.I , so not something many want to hear, but perhaps the GFS is being too progressive in some recent runs with pushing a decent Azores high towards the UK? Whether it even arrives, sets up anywhere for more than a couple of days, or gets pushed away is another question that's too early to think about really.

 

We'll hopefully know more mid week onwards I guess!

Edited June 29, 2013 by Chris K

[Kentspur]

Please no no no! It's my birthday on 15th and I've never seen rain on my birthday before and so it shouldn't or else were doomed being st swithuns day!

Yes I agree until its into the reliable time frame it would be stupid to get carried away so many times before high pressure has dominated FI only to erode away in the reliable time frame

GFS ends with a return to unsettled, cooler weather

[Frosty.]

I would say the Jet Stream our lattitude and the fact we have so much open water around us.

And the good news is the jet will be forced well to the north of the uk beyond the next week or so, things are clicking into place nicely.

[Summer Sun]

The 10 day precipitation outlook shows an increase in rain across the south from the 7th to 15th

 

 

Ensembles remain extremely low for rainfall especially the further south you head

 

Edited June 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The 10 day precipitation outlook shows an increase in rain across the south from the 7th to 15th

 

thundery showers probably

[Summer Sun]

Out to t120 on ECM and pressure is ever so slowly rising from the south

 

 

T144 high pressure is with us

 

 

And UKMO at t144 says yes to high pressure as well

 

 

we're getting there slowly now

 

Edited June 29, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 12z is again looking very promising at T+144 hours, as is the Ecm 12z..it's all systems go for a fine and very warm outlook.

[Frosty.]

And the ecm 12z gets better and better, as expected : -)

[Summer Sun]

T168 shows the high building nicely as does the warmth

 

[Frosty.]

And better and better...

 

A stunning Ecm 12z from T+144 hours onwards.

[draztik]

Prolonged good spell, if this ecm is anything to go by!! Lets hope.

[Summer Sun]

So after a few wobbles ECM has now got its self sorted out and is in line with its ensemble

 

 

t240 see the high still in charge

 

[Frosty.]

And a peach of a chart to finish the Ecm 12z, really this is an EPIC run from T+144 onwards which is borderline reliable timeframe onwards now, this is an even better run than the 00z, I really can't see anything stopping a big rise in pressure later next week with a very warm and settled spell for all parts of the uk by next weekend onwards.

[ANYWEATHER]

And for you Newbies T+96 is at the realm of semi reliable output from the models,,,,  

[Supacell]

We do seem to have good model agreement for a pressure rise and subsequent rise in temperatures from late next week onwards, perhaps some thunderstorms at times too if GFS 12z was to verify. Agreed it is a long way out and things could change, but it has been showing for a while now (high pressure build that is). Newbies need to realise though that although a lot of beautiful charts are coming out, things are not set in stone until these charts start to appear in the 72-96 hour frame. For now at least it is a bit of eye candy and a chance to feel positive about what may happen, but with a sense of realism as to what may also not happen.

 

Meanwhile lets not forget, for a good portion of England, that it is only 12 hours until tomorrow morning and things are looking very summery with temperatures 22-26c, sunshine and light winds all day long. Yes its one day for now, but its a Sunday and I will be going to the seaside with the kids for the day to enjoy it and not be spending it sitting at home looking and worrying about the possibilities of the rain forecast for midweek... (just saying  )

Edited June 29, 2013 by Supacell

[Downpour]

yep gavin on this run the low goes towards iceland but lets not take it as gospel, im dubious of this extreme high pressure that the GFS has being showing in FI for days now, how often does strong high pressure sit over the UK like that without any Atlantic attempt? so just 6 more days to wait until a spell of hot weather, if only it was that straight forward

No one is "taking it as gospel" as you say, merely commenting on the models.

[Downpour]

And for you Newbies T+96 is at the realm of semi reliable output from the models,,,, [/quote

You've been patronising many younger members for days on end now. You are going to look quite silly if the warm spell comes off.

[Frosty.]

And for you Newbies T+96 is at the realm of semi reliable output from the models,,,,[/quote

You've been patronising many younger members for days on end now. You are going to look quite silly if the warm spell comes off.

He won't mind, he thinks everything is funny, especially when the weather is wet and cold.

Edited June 29, 2013 by Frosty039

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Interesting, the ECM keeps the high right over us for a more sustained amount of time, and actually if anything retrogresses a little! 

Just as long as we can get that pattern sustained and into the heat for real, I'll be a happy man! 

[DTHFCJ]

Makes a nice change to see this....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

pretty sure its been mentioned before not sure if these are updated over the weekend??,il post them anyway....

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610day.03.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814day.03.gif

maybe this year we will get a half decent summer,tbh so far this June im well happy with whats been offered,the first 10 days (here in south wales) were perfect,and it has not been too bad at all the last 19 days

Edited June 29, 2013 by BALE1