Model Output Discussion 18Z 18/6/13 onwards

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe i.e. out to about 120 hours, its a mixed outlook with the driest sunniest warmest weather reserved for the SE quarter of the country under preety humid air, the wettest dullest and coolest weather reserved for the NW quarter of the country - all very typical standard summer fayre.

 

Longer term - yes GFS is suggesting a build of strong heights over the country as we move into July proper, but ECM is showing a different scenario with heights building over the mid atlantic allowing a trough to dig in from the NW bringing cool unsettled weather.

 

There is no clear signal it has to be said. This is often a pivotal time as the northern hemipshere beds itself into its true summer state, how it decides to do this remains to be seen.

 

The models have toyed with heights building over the country on numerous occasions in recent weeks, but all beyond reliable timeframe only for the jet to have the upper hand. Take now for instance, towards end of last week some models were suggesting azores high might ridge deep towards the SW of the country by now with temps into mid 20's, what have we ended up, mmm a westerly flow with fronts embedded within with the azores high strugging to make any proper impact... with this in mind, it would be best to remain cautious about any sudden build of heights across the country particularly with the jet positioned where it is, but the south in particular should see some decent warmth in the days ahead closest to the azores high.

 

This summer so far has been very text book - but very uninteresting it has to be said, if you like extremes, i.e. heavy downpours, thunderstorms, or heat... very very dull indeed, however, we have a long way to go yet.

[Downpour]

Not sure all this talk of heatwaves has much basis on what the charts are showing especially in a reliable timeframe? Today was supposed to be 25C as shown a few days ago, instead it reached 18C here and is raining. Weekend looks quite unsettled now as does much of next week...another model fail?

Mate - the weekend is looking warm and sunny for our area. Rain should fizzle away Friday.

[stainesbloke]

18c! Positively balmy........11c here this eve and raining - i feel like i've been asleep for a few months and just woke up to find out it's November!

Hehe, feels like Autumn today, it's 12C now. Hopefully these 20C nights that were showing in FI will happen lovely!

[Gordon Webb]

Hehe, feels like Autumn today, it's 12C now. Hopefully these 20C nights that were showing in FI will happen lovely!

 

Lovely is not how I'd describe 20C nights and as for some of the potential daytime temperatures been indicated , far too hot for me and I certainly hope it doesn't come off like that , warm dry and settled certainly but nothing that extreme

Edited June 27, 2013 by Gordon Webb

[NorthernRab]

Not sure all this talk of heatwaves has much basis on what the charts are showing especially in a reliable timeframe? Today was supposed to be 25C as shown a few days ago, instead it reached 18C here and is raining. Weekend looks quite unsettled now as does much of next week...another model fail?

 

Illogical to base future prospects on past failure - performance will always fluctuate around the mean! 

[Downpour]

Hehe, feels like Autumn today, it's 12C now. Hopefully these 20C nights that were showing in FI will happen lovely!

Why the hell would you want it to be 20c at night??

Illogical to base future prospects on past failure - performance will always fluctuate around the mean!

Especially as the weekend doesn't look unsettled! Looks pretty good in the SE.

[JK1]

temps of 30c and higher would be amazing would love it, if only summer days were like that everyday i guess I'd need to move further south for that to happen

Edited June 27, 2013 by JK1

[BornFromTheVoid]

18z GFS moving slightly towards the ECM in the medium term.

Weaker ridging to our south and stronger towards eastern Scandi and Europe, which may hold the trough in place just to our north, preventing high pressure from easily moving toward us.

[stainesbloke]

Why the hell would you want it to be 20c at night??Especially as the weekend doesn't look unsettled! Looks pretty good in the SE.

Don't get your knickers in a twist, it's just a personal preference, I love warmth and it is summer after all. Same as many people on here love -5C in winter, which I'm not overly keen on but it's winter so I just get on with it. I always find a cool shower and a fan very helpful for sleeping in the heat. The weekend, IMHO, offers mixed fayre looking at the fax charts. Saturday sees a front straddling the UK, so I'd expect lots of cloud. Sunday looks much sunnier and warmer away from the far NW with 24C possible in the SE.

[Scorcher]

Why the hell would you want it to be 20c at night?? 

 

Some people like to be able to sit outside comfortably in a t-shirt late into the evening. That's why many of us enjoy warm nights. They have been few and far between this year so far though.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Lovely is not how I'd describe 20C nights and as for some of the potential daytime temperatures been indicated , far too hot for me and I certainly hope it doesn't come off like that , warm dry and settled certainly but nothing that extreme

I'd describe 20c as lovely at night! At the end of the day, we pay 100's of pounds to go abroad for this, but to have it on our doorstep is all the more better! Long evening barbecues, beers etc, its not often this occurs, so when it does, its what I'd describe as marvellous.

[stainesbloke]

I'd describe 20c as lovely at night! At the end of the day, we pay 100's of pounds to go abroad for this, but to have it on our doorstep is all the more better! Long evening barbecues, beers etc, its not often this occurs, so when it does, its what I'd describe as marvellous.

Yes....one of life's pleasures! We spend so much of our year huddled indoors/in the warm a few warm nights are a nice change. Plus with those temps any instability makes decent storms more likely Edited June 27, 2013 by stainesbloke

[NUT]

GFS never never land at 348/360 has thrown a possible stormy spell so it seems? (watch it disappear soon)

[Tony27]

lets just hope things aren't shunted south as usual and we end up with drizzle and average temps like this week, 18z is good but a slight downgrade on the 12z

well shock horror things are shunted south, even a novice like me has seen this happen time and time again, im sick of these northwesterly type setups, its so predictable zzzzzzzzz and of course in autumn and winter everything is shunted further north

 

i am pretty peed off tonight, just one downgrade too many,  will i wake up to find a surprise upgrade i won;t hold my breath but who knows

Edited June 27, 2013 by Tony27

[nitro_deluxe]

I'd describe 20c as lovely at night! At the end of the day, we pay 100's of pounds to go abroad for this, but to have it on our doorstep is all the more better! Long evening barbecues, beers etc, its not often this occurs, so when it does, its what I'd describe as marvellous.

For some that would be almost Armageddon? No offence to Blackpool, but that's as far as some have probably ever gone And not Seville? for an example. Less sparkly lights, sadly, but usually far higher temps..

[Gael_Force]

I'd describe 20c as lovely at night! At the end of the day, we pay 100's of pounds to go abroad for this, but to have it on our doorstep is all the more better! Long evening barbecues, beers etc, its not often this occurs, so when it does, its what I'd describe as marvellous.

 

Hopefully the100s of pounds has included shaded terraces and air conditioning - the temps we enjoy abroad do not relate well to non shaded/shuttered windows and the fabric of a British home.

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS never never land at 348/360 has thrown a possible stormy spell so it seems? (watch it disappear soon)

 

Other than the odd occasion, when has the GFS ever landed at 348/360? Especially when a stormy spell is suggested, stormy spells seem to fall apart at 72 hours out let alone 2 weeks.

[mushymanrob]

Why the hell would you want it to be 20c at night?? 

 

one of lifes pleasures, evening outdoor living in a garden made for such events.

 

well there it goes, with this weeks 'pleasant dry summery weather' degrades into grey and wet murk, the pressure rise expected sunday onwards has now been downgraded to a day or so. next weeks now looking changable, and theres the old gfs/ecm stand off... the gfs still insists on a hot spell from thursday onward whilst the ecm has backed off from this and leaves us in a cool northwesterly.

 

i hope contributers dont highlight only the gfs's hot charts, that would be misleading, as theres precious little support for it happening as things stand atm. although the anomaly charts give some hope for heat, i expect the next update will move away from this showing troughing closer to us.

Edited June 28, 2013 by mushymanrob

[Captain Shortwave]

 

i hope contributers dont highlight only the gfs's hot charts, that would be misleading, as theres precious little support for it happening as things stand atm. although the anomaly charts give some hope for heat, i expect the next update will move away from this showing troughing closer to us.

 

Well the GEM's run pretty much is exactly the same as the GFS. We still need to wait 20 minutes until we see what the ECM does and whether yesterdays was a rogue run.

GFS at day 8

 

GEM

 

ECM 

 

Well it's better than yesterday, still the jet is a lot more amplified than the others. High pressure should build as the trough clears eastwards through Scandinavia.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[ANYWEATHER]

one of lifes pleasures, evening outdoor living in a garden made for such events.

 

well there it goes, with this weeks 'pleasant dry summery weather' degrades into grey and wet murk, the pressure rise expected sunday onwards has now been downgraded to a day or so. next weeks now looking changable, and theres the old gfs/ecm stand off... the gfs still insists on a hot spell from thursday onward whilst the ecm has backed off from this and leaves us in a cool northwesterly.

 

i hope contributers dont highlight only the gfs's hot charts, that would be misleading, as theres precious little support for it happening as things stand atm. although the anomaly charts give some hope for heat, i expect the next update will move away from this showing troughing closer to us.

Indeed! The gfs predictions for the end of this week only a few days ago was for dry fine weather, in reality we have the opposite. Unfortunately ,we will have the posters trying to find heatwaves, and misleading newbies!  Its getting very tiresome tbh, Look out for trends etc but what I don't see from the models is nothing but changeable. The absolute FI is T+96.

[mushymanrob]

. We still need to wait 20 minutes until we see what the ECM does and whether yesterdays was a rogue run.

 

looking like it was a rogue run, however over the last several years theres always been fi heatwaves only for them to disappear closer to reality, i see pushing back and downgrading of 'nice' spells so im very sceptical that one so far off will actually happen.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo 00z is looking good for this weekend, tomorrow should be fine across the uk with long sunny spells and temperatures into the low 20s celsius, on sunday, the southern half of the uk looks even warmer and continuing fine and mainly sunny with temperatures between 23-25c, turning more unsettled for the northwest of the uk and cooler, into next week shows the unsettled weather persisting across northern britain, especially the far northwest and it also becomes less settled in the south but still with some pleasantly warm sunny spells and only small amounts of rain compared to northwestern areas, signs of an atlantic ridge pushing east later next week.

Edited June 28, 2013 by Frosty039

[Summer Sun]

UKMO remains unsettled at t144 though rainfall amounts look lower the further south you go

 

 

ECM does build pressure towards the end of its run but it doesn't look as warm as a few runs ago I certainly wouldn't go as far as saying a heatwave is on the way

 

 

ECM t240 is right above and below is GFS at t240

 

[Frosty.]

This is more like it, the Ecm 00z looks a lot nice this morning compared to the 12z last night, the azores/atlantic high eventually building in.

[bluearmy]

looking at day 1 and 10 on the ecm op upper pattern. Note that ten days ago, we werent supposed to have the trough just to our east by day 11. Just saying that this repeating trough into nw europe which seems to now have been pushed a bit further east by the azores high just wont go away come verification.