Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Summer Sun]

A nice run from ECM again

 

 

By Sunday Scotland starts to see lower pressure but for the rest of the UK it remains settled and very warm to hot

 

 

By the Tuesday the high is moving back north again

 

[Summer Sun]

Well away from Scotland the cooler uppers have been pushed back this evening by 2 days to the 15th

 

 

ECM ends settled and warm / hot with the Azores building once more

 

 

No major breakdowns in sight this evening with signs of a renewed push from the Azores at day 10

Edited July 7, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep ECM is cracking again. Especially for Southern and Central areas, any rain will be extremely limited and temperatures always in the 20s and then further signs this evening that high pressure could make a renewed push at some point. No real breakdown in sight tbh. This could be the start of a long run of consecutive days in the 20s me thinks.

[DAVID SNOW]

As the days get shorter,the heat grows stronger(for our winter only members)

[cheese]

Ncie to see 15C uppers over the UK next week - I get the feeling next weekend will be a lot hotter than this one.

[Milhouse]

Whats so impressive about the ECM is how strong high pressure remains to the west of the UK but extending a ridge into northwestern Europe. The cool flow of the east coast looks a temporary feature too with westerlies resuming for some by Friday and for all by Saturday.

[Frosty.]

Well what a weekend, the British & Irish lions won the rugby union test series in australia, andy murray wins at wimbledon and high pressure wins, what more could we want? high pressure in control during the week ahead, starting hot, then a bit fresher and more comfortable with temps down to the low to mid 20's celsius and then hotting up again by the end of the week, the only part of the uk missing out in the week ahead will be the far north of scotland where a persistent trailing front will bring bits of rain and drizzle and cooler atlantic air around the top of the anticyclone but most of the uk look fine with long sunny spells and either warm, very warm or hot.

 

Well done Andy

[Scorcher]

The Countryfile forecast was great too, just a little bit more cloud and slightly cooler temperatures (still above average) for the north from midweek but then clearing again for Friday before another hot and sunny weekend for most. Overall we couldn't ask for much more after a fantastic weekend.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Well what a weekend, the British & Irish lions won the rugby union test series in australia, andy murray wins at wimbledon and high pressure wins, what more could we want? high pressure in control during the week ahead, starting hot, then a bit fresher and more comfortable with temps down to the low to mid 20's celsius and then hotting up again by the end of the week, the only part of the uk missing out in the week ahead will be the far north of scotland where a persistent trailing front will bring bits of rain and drizzle and cooler atlantic air around the top of the anticyclone but most of the uk look fine with long sunny spells and either warm, very warm or hot.

Well done Andy

hope your right frosty cause the east coast low cloud curse is back tomoro dont think it will be a warm/hot week here

[Summer Sun]

hope your right frosty cause the east coast low cloud curse is back tomoro dont think it will be a warm/hot week here

 

Yep it doesn't look too good along the east coast this week the hottest weather looks to be further west Bournemouth is the UK hot spot now reaching 29.7c today not bad for the coast!

 

[Downpour]

as i understood it, that was the temperature at grass level... not the air temp. i remember in 76 they showed the thermometer at 90f... cant see the air temp being much higher then that at the most.

Yup - certainly some value inflation going on. People who bandy about these numbers cannot have any grasp of what 40c in the shade feels like, otherwise they wouldn't make such silly claims.

[snowingtequila]

Yup - certainly some value inflation going on. People who bandy about these numbers cannot have any grasp of what 40c in the shade feels like, otherwise they wouldn't make such silly claims.

It's not value inflation it is just not the general air temp bei g quoted but the temperature the thermometer showed at grass level at centre court on full sun.

[Captain Shortwave]

I don't think the low cloud is going to be too much of an issue. Local forecast here has some sea fog burning away tomorrow and Tuesday and the cloud on Wednesday is to do with a weak weather front slipping down the north sea with the air drying out from Thursday onwards bringing the return of the sun and rising temperatures. Still coastal areas might get a little chilly midweek.

[A.J]

Can we have some actual model output discussion please folks....the last few posts have very little if anything to say about them!.....ta

[legritter]

Evening gang ,im trying to find some rain ,but looking at current data modells and looking at all other available information ,not a spot in sight .it does look at this stage that high pressure will possibly move further to our west allowing more of a westerly influance from the atlantic but at this range that likelyhood could change over coming computer modell runs .so plenty of BBQ days on offer so lets grab it while we can .the reason for my quest for rain is realy a selfish one ,my hose  as broken so its 10 cans water per day .But certainly at this stage hot weather fans have plenty to cheer about .

[Geordiesnow]

GFS still seem keen on increasing more heights into Greenland somewhat and has an orientation of the high which means the warm spell will be ending in Scotland and other northern parts by Saturday but yet the UKMO and to a less extent the ECM has a more favorable angle of the high and lower heights across Greenland. 

 

It also seems to me the easterly flow has been toned down across the board again for mid-week but if a weather front comes into play then frontal cloud may be an issue anyways instead of low cloud. Be interesting how this one pans out though. 

[FreezingFog]

looking at the uppers, the ecm has the 15c isotherm over ireland for a while this week.... record breaking temps on the cards for ireland this week?

 

Record is 33.3, don't think the models are showing anything so hot at this stage.

[Summer Sun]

GFS starts to pull the high west towards the end of this week which if it does will mean cloud will pile in off the north sea the far west would be the best place to be temperatures should hold up in the south

 

 

As for the rest of GFS its best described as mixed - http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm but before that a warm to hot week is on the cards away from the east coast where cloud has rolled in already from the north sea

 

The new hottest temperature tomorrow could be hit in the north with 29c on the cards

 

 

Wednesday is a lot cooler in the east best in the west

 

 

29c in the north again on Friday east Anglia remains one of the coolest spot in England

 

 

But come Saturday east Anglia hots up 32c possible just in from the south coast

 

Edited July 8, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

What about the ECM Gavin? Much better than the GFS again this morning, and would see the very warm/hot conditions continue into next week for many. It's the GFS that keeps backing down and pushing the transition to cooler conditions back- I think it's being too progressive again this morning.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

What about the ECM Gavin? Much better than the GFS again this morning, and would see the very warm/hot conditions continue into next week for many. It's the GFS that keeps backing down and pushing the transition to cooler conditions back- I think it's being too progressive again this morning.

ECM is not update yet.

[bluearmy]

The consistent fi pattern of ecm op with its 'high' maxes wrt the mean , are beginning to gain credence.

EDIT: Knew that would be the 'kiss of death'!!

once the consistency wanes, so does any fi validity the op has.

Edited July 8, 2013 by bluearmy

[Scorcher]

ECM is not update yet.

 

Quite right, however it's out up to 120 hrs and looks hotter than the GFS for the Saturday at least.

[mushymanrob]

where was it?  Derby?

 

yes!.... a breeze has sprung up, very light yesterday but quite a draft this morning...good! itll keep me cooler whilst working!

 

Record is 33.3, don't think the models are showing anything so hot at this stage.

 

well i made that post sunday morning and on those charts the ecm in particular had the 15c upper over much of ireland for several days.... IF you get the 15c upper then id suggest that record is under threat..

 

hmmm..... theres always hints of the high retrogressing, opening up the door to a northwesterly. the current anomaly charts highlight the difference between the ecm and gfs, the gfs keener then the ecm to bring in a northwesterly...

[Downpour]

It's not value inflation it is just not the general air temp bei g quoted but the temperature the thermometer showed at grass level at centre court on full sun.

Textbook temp measuring skills!

[Evening thunder]

Hmm ECM and UKMO seem to be moving to the GFS scenario.. shame the better two models do that rather than the GFS move when the ECM showed something I kind of wanted to occur.