Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Methuselah]

if I saw a naked picture of Ann Widdecombe I'd be praying for low cloud , fog ,blinds, solar eclipses , fantastic sun glasses the works anything but that

     

[peterf]

And yet another off topic post by yourself in the model thread... I was just highlighting that I hope some members don't get too complacent at the low cloud risk for mid-week, that is all because the risk is there, even the BBC forecasts are hinting at this! Surely not even you can argue with that...  For the most part I hope and don't think low cloud will be much of an issue and the main risk where low cloud may linger is Wednesday as there is hints the high may edge eastwards again afterwards therefore cutting off the easterly flow.  If I can't post what I see on the models in this thread then what is the point? I been highlighting the risk of a weather front toppling in during Saturday and Sunday for some Northern areas and this will happen(although it seems the front may topple as far South as first thought). Now I've been highlighting the risk of some low cloud in some eastern areas(which may spread westwards during Tuesday night) and I get Peter(yet again) on my back for being negative. Admittedly I have been wrong before and in terms of the low cloud risk, a slight shift in the high pressure cell may decrease the risk of low cloud coming into play but I thought its just worth mentioning that the risk is there so members don't think there area is going to see wall to wall sunshine for the next week or so. I also seen some members saying how can low cloud form is pressure is so high but remember low cloud forms over the Sea and with very warm air, it creates moisture so low cloud tends to form. Its not quite that stright forward and there is complications but from my experience whenever a NE'ly breeze occur, low cloud is never too far away, tend to get away with one sunny day then the cloud rolls in during the evening and that what I may think happen on Tuesday in some Eastern areas.

just have a go at cheering up a tad, your constant glass half empty syndrome is very tiresome.

[BornFromTheVoid]

No end in sight to this warm spell

 

 

 

Also, ahem... Model Banter Moans and Ramps...

[Tony27]

It's harder to swallow for us other Geordies believe me.the bloke's a manic depressive lol.

tbf to him, if i lived up there i would be depressed with the weather too, it's bad enough down here, first 25c of the year here today

 

UKMO looks the best out of the main three models to me, though the ECM keeps it warm until next weekend at least

Edited July 5, 2013 by Tony27

[bluearmy]

note a depression passing the nw of scotland on the ecm spreads day 10. not significant as yet but worth watching out for this possible feature over the next few op runs.

[damianslaw]

Very slow but importantly subtle changes in the coming days, with the core of the heat likely to transfer from central southeast parts to more central/west/sw parts as we start the week thanks to the shift of core heights more to the NW which will bring a light drift from the NE off a chilly N Sea, hence the suggestion of more cloud and cooler conditions for eastern coastal districts as we move into next week proper.

 

The high isn't going anywhere fast which means very light still conditions for many. However, it also means no signal that we will draw in any continental air or indeed a southerly plume so temperatures are most likely to peak in the high 20's with a possible 30 degree squeezed out, respectable, but not especially noteworthy.

 

Longer term - all will depend on the jet, its position and strength, it is preety weak at the moment and far to our north, but there is no strong signal where it will be come mid-month.

[Geordiesnow]

One positive aspect I find with the model output in the medium term is that retrogression to Greenland has become less likely so a blocked weather pattern would less likely to occur. ECM even has low heights across Greenland for most of the run right upto 240 hours and with pressure reletively high, people won't be complaining much if the ECM set up occurred.  

Edited July 6, 2013 by reef

[Downpour]

would be even better if we could get proper heat of the continent, any chance of that happening this summer?

We are warmer than much of France at the moment for a change!

[Staffordshire]

Do what Scorcher(and anyone else) and put me on your ignore list Peter, nothing else to say on the matter. One positive aspect I find with the model output in the medium term is that retrogression to Greenland has become less likely so a blocked weather pattern would less likely to occur. ECM even has low heights across Greenland for most of the run right upto 240 hours and with pressure reletively high, people won't be complaining much if the ECM set up occurred.

i dont see what geordiesnow is doing wrong? He is giving a fair analysis of the situation, it isnt being pesemsitic, just realistic. yes, it is a real issue that cloud may be a problem on wednesday and i think some of you are just ignoring this because you dont want it to happen maybe?... Edited July 5, 2013 by Staffordshire

[Downpour]

i dont see what geordieshore is doing wrong? He is giving a fair analysis of the situation, it isnt being pesemsitic, just realistic. yes, it is a real issue that cloud may be a problem on wednesday and i think some of you are just ignoring this because you dont want it to happen maybe?...

Geordieshore?! I thought he was that overly tanned bloke off the telly - no chance of that for our man... Too much low cloud!

[Staffordshire]

Geordieshore?! I thought he was that overly tanned bloke off the telly - no chance of that for our man... Too much low cloud!

damn i was thinking about the shore (where the cloud is most likely) thats why i must of put that haha

[Geordiesnow]

i dont see what geordieshore is doing wrong? He is giving a fair analysis of the situation, it isnt being pesemsitic, just realistic. yes, it is a real issue that cloud may be a problem on wednesday and i think some of you are just ignoring this because you dont want it to happen maybe?...

 

At the moment there does seem to be a risk of some low cloud affecting parts of eastern areas on Wednesday but the models have toned down slightly on the easterly flow compared to yesterday but the risk remains. As I have said though, hopefully the risk will only last at least a day or two as the high moves back in and cuts off the easterly flow somewhat as the UKMO shows. 

[Jason T]

Outstanding really, We are now involved in a HP set up for the foreseeable relating to all output,There are bumps and grinds on the way showing phases,BUT,How many July's have been like this over the past (5 YEARS), We all hope for a major pattern change which is  long over due to when Summers kicked of from May, June. Could we about to be on the cusp of a sign of the Mild 80'S AND 90'S ERA. Patterns will change, Not through our will "BUT" When planet earth and cycles are ready. However we could be set on a different pattern style when all seasons play ball, Winter has the Dickens scene, Snow,Frost and a chilly wind, Spring has the Mild and up and down temps with showers, Summer, Hits of with up and down temps (HP) SWAYING in and out from our shores,Until July arrives with 26-32c which portrays into August when a true British Summer fires up. Mods this is model related with emotions,We are all wanting that sign for a MAJOR pattern change, This current forecast aspect could be the key. As of now, Good weather is upon us...Long overdue...LETS ENJOY FOR GOD SAKE.  Crazy thing is...How many are now are focusing on Winter 2013/2014.?

Edited July 5, 2013 by Jason T

[rory o gorman]

looks like a keen northeast breeze on the north sea coast midweek , given the SSTs there , would expect it to be rather chilly given sea fog or low cloud. 14c isotherm building over ireland in line with the earlier ecm . 

[Captain Shortwave]

looks like a keen northeast breeze on the north sea coast midweek , given the SSTs there , would expect it to be rather chilly given sea fog or low cloud. 14c isotherm building over ireland in line with the earlier ecm . 

Looks like a good spell for you on the Emerald isle, though saying that if this does become prolonged then the emerald isle might become slightly brown

[cheese]

I recall it was Monday and Tuesday being shown as the cool days for the East, now it's Thursday and Friday, soon it will probably be Saturday and Sunday.. and soon it may not exist.

Edited July 5, 2013 by cheese

[Panayiotis]

Its another very warm and mostly dry run from the GFS 18Z. I like this chart showing warmer air being pumped from USA/Canada to Greenland then to us! Greenland Plume?

[rory o gorman]

18z not a drop of rain for us here in Ireland on the whole run . drought conditions if it comes to fruition . 

[shaky]

I recall it was Monday and Tuesday being shown as the cool days for the East, now it's Thursday and Friday, soon it will probably be Saturday and Sunday.. and soon it may not exist.

I was gona say the same thing!!monday was meant to be a cooler day across the midlands for example with 24 degrees but its now forecasted to get to maybe 27!and also wednesday was showing 23 degrees but is now showing 26/27 degrees!!long may it continue!!!

[Jimmy0127]

Unbelievable tekkers:

 

 

[Gustywind]

More stunning charts this morning, with high pressure centred over uk right out to t144 on ukmo and t300 on gfs. Temps in mid to upper 20s throughout. The movement west of the high pressure cell on the gfs is less pronounced this morning.

Ukmo 144 chart below pretty much sums things up.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&carte=1021&ech=6&archive=0

[Captain Shortwave]

Well ECM is the equivalent of parking the bus. Azores high is complete control throughout with absolutely no sign of any change.

 

No output this morning brings anything unsettled in before day 10

Edited July 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Gustywind]

Yes astonishing Synoptics, very rare to see such a long running dry and mostly sunny summer spell in uk with temps in the upper 20s throughout.

Definately a chance of hitting 30c next weekend on the ECM.

Personally very happy with mid 20s though, once you get past 30 it gets far too humid and uncomfortable.

Edited July 6, 2013 by Gustywind

[Evening thunder]

If anything the models (or at least the ECM and GFS) seem to be extending this spell in the longer/unreliable timeframe at the moment.

 

GFS has upgraded temps next week end by quite a margin in the south:

That is likely to change a bit being at t+183, but nice to see the models aren't gradually eating away at temps now like some runs were before. It has also upgraded temps slightly next week compared to yesterday's runs.

Edited July 6, 2013 by Stormmad26

[shaky]

Unbelivable models this morning!!it now looks like we wont see any low cloud at all next week!!amd temps will stay between 25-30 degrees!!