Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Summer Sun]

t240 has some very warm uppers coming back in with a low in the Atlantic forcing the high to move eastwards if it kept going that way there is every chance of a Spanish plume setting up if it did it could become very hot in places considering the heat whats building over Europe maybe the 38.5 Â°C (101.3 Â°F) record would be under threat

 

 

It could well get even hotter before it gets cooler

 

To compare t240 from this morning I've put the 00z on the left and 12z on the right

 

Edited July 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Costa Del Fal]

Yeah there seems a good trend to have the high retreating west a little bit but then being forced back over us, perhaps strengthening again too.

 

Also, GOOD NEWS, the GFS 12z unsettled end has pretty much no support in the ensembles, not even from the control! Looks the High is in charge for a long time yet. Lots of Sunny skies and 25c+ days here to come!

Edited July 4, 2013 by Blizzards

[Tony27]

think i got a clear cold sunny day out of this with no cloud, there were no orange colours on this chart http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013031012/ECM1-72.GIF?12 and no high pressure? i may be wrong but i do remember having clear skies in a north-easterly in march

Edited July 4, 2013 by Tony27

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the latter frames of the ECM show what I was thinking this morning, good track on the upstream low at day 7/8 and bingo the high is pushed back over us.

One complaint about the ECM in an IMBY sense is that the weather could possibly be dreadful again.from next wednesday onwards with persistent and cool northerly winds.

Sigh, why mother nature would you target me. I've actually been positive about this spell of weather 

[Evening thunder]

Yeah the ECM brings cooler uppers in briefly which could be said to be a bit disappointing, although before this it's uppers are a bit warmer than that of the GFS:

 

I'm thinking there may be a bit of a double peak to this spell, with it perhaps slightly cooler mid week next week.

 

Seems like quite a bit of fine weather to come until well into FI, with the GFS ensembles continuing their theme of remaining above average right until the end:

 

The ECM ensembles also have +12C uppers over the UK at T+240 and an ensemble graph I saw posted earlier today still had 22C max's for Birmingham on the 17th (I think the ECM ensemble max temps underestimate them slightly too, I will be surprised if the max temp from this spell in Birmingham is 25C, and on only one day too). While I respect and take note of longer range forecasts made on here I'm not going to be getting that worried of a more unsettled 'mjo phase 5' type pattern yet, especially as the MJO isn't really shown to reach phase 5 for a while on the forecasts, until mid-late July at least, and I think there's often a lag between MJO and our weather patterns unless i'm mistaken? Also the Met Office don't really see a cooler unsettled outlook later in July for now (not trying to dismiss anyone, just know things can change and don't like to base too much on just one source).

[Frosty.]

The models are continuing to firm up on a prolonged settled and warm spell, very warm or hot for some. The 12z runs are unsure about the high placement and are currently pulling it west and then pushing it back east but the main theme is for the large anticyclone to become centred more or less over the top of the uk, still some minor adjustments on placement to be ironed out but the overall pattern is nailed down for a generally dry outlook with long sunny spells and mostly very warm but with cooling sea breezes for eastern coastal counties bordering the north sea, just a bit more eastward modelling of the anticyclone will make it perfect but as it is, these are the best looking charts for many a summer on a nationwide scale.

[Captain Shortwave]

And also to add to Tony's comments, how far East would you expect to be affected by cloud? The GFS, from having a quick look at, doesn't look too bad at all to me, apart from the late stages of FI where there seems to be a lingering low pressure system over us.

You will be fine, only coastal areas will be affected.....

like me 

Triangle of doom would strike again

[Tony27]

Well the latter frames of the ECM show what I was thinking this morning, good track on the upstream low at day 7/8 and bingo the high is pushed back over us.

One complaint about the ECM in an IMBY sense is that the weather could possibly be dreadful again.from next wednesday onwards with persistent and cool northerly winds.

Sigh, why mother nature would you target me. I've actually been positive about this spell of weather 

you can guarantee that cloud will get as far west as me, always the way in spring and summer under north-easterlies, of course in winter im too far west for snow showers typically and i end up staying dry and sunny, also even though the high builds back over us, watch out for that trough near svalbard dropping south over us in future runs possibly, we see this happen often, its just a possibility i don't blindly look at the model and think a high will sit over us for 2 weeks

Edited July 4, 2013 by Tony27

[Evening thunder]

think i got a clear cold sunny day out of this with no cloud, there were no orange colours on this chart http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/archives/2013031012/ECM1-72.GIF?12 and no high pressure? i may be wrong but i do remember having clear skies in a north-easterly in march

 

That seems a suitable weather type for that chart, looks like a cold relatively clear flow with perhaps some (wintry) showers near eastern coasts.  With those colours on those charts it isn't nessesarily blue/green = cloud/precip or orange = sunshine as you've been finding out. They show the geopotential height at 500mb which shows the general placement of upper ridges/troughs.

You can get different details at the surface influencing day to day weather in any one place, and of course low pressure can contain clear weather or showery weather at times, cold northerlies with arctic airmasses often leave it clear in inland parts of the UK as shower activity doesn't penetrate that far inland.

At least, that's my understanding of it.

Edited July 4, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Tony27]

yep agree which is why 500mb charts are pointless at times, best stick to bbc graphics or cloud and precip charts

[Evening thunder]

yeah agreed best not to take 500mb charts in isolation if you want a complete/more reliable picture. 

 

I do think/hope cloud won't be too much of an issue in most places next week (can't rule it out in places particularly with the ECM), but most places should hopefully get more sun than cloud.

Edited July 4, 2013 by Stormmad26

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tbh anything more than 3 days out shouldn't be taken as gospel. That high could make quite a difference a couple of hundred miles to the East. Anything Southerly sourced dragged up from France or Belgium will make the temperatures rocket.

[Captain Shortwave]

Tbh anything more than 3 days out shouldn't be taken as gospel. That high could make quite a difference a couple of hundred miles to the East. Anything Southerly sourced dragged up from France or Belgium will make the temperatures rocket.

and bring lots of sun for all of course

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean is very impressive, really hotting up with temperatures widely into the high 20's celsius and low 30's across the south, the anticyclone stays in control until beyond mid month, this July is going to be one for the books as they say.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

The GEFS 12z mean is very impressive, really hotting up with temperatures widely into the high 20's celsius and low 30's across the south, the anticyclone stays in control until beyond mid month, this July is going to be one for the books as they say.

Paul Hudson said on Look North the pattern could stay like this with a high on top of us till mid month i suppose he know more being a pro n all that

[bluearmy]

Good 12z ecm ens mean for a continuation of settled conditions

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble remains fine up-to t216 but t240 it shows the high loosing its grip unlike the op

 

ensemble

 

 

Op

 

[Geordiesnow]

Tbh anything more than 3 days out shouldn't be taken as gospel. That high could make quite a difference a couple of hundred miles to the East. Anything Southerly sourced dragged up from France or Belgium will make the temperatures rocket.

 

That set up at this stage does look unlikely to happen basing on all the model output, most goes for the high to be over us and then start  drifting to the west. 

 

And Milhouse - the GFS/ECM for our part of the world look similar to me, high pressure just to the west and a cooler NE'ly flow developing. I think some may underestimating the cloud amounts there could be from the charts mid week next week, most of cloud will be low cloud I feel so the Fax charts may not pick up any weather fronts up and people may suggest it be a clear high. 

[rmc1987]

ECM showing an NE'ly flow by mid-week next week which is what the GFS and this afternoon's UKMO run are hinting at which may again lead to more low cloud heading into some eastern areas, western areas should still stay pretty warm and sunny though but there has been some hints of the high heading NW'wards to some extent only for it to back off again so see what happens by tomorrow morning runs.

When this happened in the last warm spell, a lot of cloud plagued this area. I thought we might have escaped, temperatures were ok though considering sun was limited.

[bryan629]

That set up at this stage does look unlikely to happen basing on all the model output, most goes for the high to be over us and then start  drifting to the west. 

 

And Milhouse - the GFS/ECM for our part of the world look similar to me, high pressure just to the west and a cooler NE'ly flow developing. I think some may underestimating the cloud amounts there could be from the charts mid week next week, most of cloud will be low cloud I feel so the Fax charts may not pick up any weather fronts up and people may suggest it be a clear high. 

 

Surely the low cloud would burn off at this time of year though?

in any case mid next week is still in FI , it is close but not nailed on as yet.. a good few runs to go.... 

[johnholmes]

Best look at the 3-d picture of the lower atmosphere and check the skew-t diagrams,only one day as far out as they go to Wednesday shows a profile that would suggest low cloud as a problem on the coast. Not looked inland.

The 1000-500mb charts are not a lot of use for this type of detail and to be honest this far out nothing is. All any forecaster can do is suggest the possibility of this occurring but visual sat piccs late the previous afternoon are perhaps the best guide along with old fashioned cooling curves and humidity profiles at midnight on the day in question.

[Costa Del Fal]

Should be noted the ECM12Z was at the cooler end of the ensembles for mid next week. The Mean and Control were all much higher. And the spell of warmth continues way into FI only dipping around the 16th. Rain is non existent till at least the 18th!!!

 

At least for areas West of about Leicester to Oxford etc, Id say this is good to go for pretty much the whole of the next week being extremely sunny and extremely warm or hot. I do agree about low cloud being a potential problem in the East but rapidly burning back in the very strong sun.

Edited July 4, 2013 by Blizzards

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Should be noted the ECM12Z was at the cooler end of the ensembles for mid next week. The Mean and Control were all much higher. And the spell of warmth continues way into FI only dipping around the 16th. Rain is non existent till at least the 18th!!!At least for areas West of about Leicester to Oxford etc, Id say this is good to go for pretty much the whole of the next week being extremely sunny and extremely warm or hot. I do agree about low cloud being a potential problem in the East but rapidly burning back in the very strong sun.

oh well i was lookin forward to a decent spell of weather( been waiting 7 odd years) back to normal then for those in east few nice days the damn low cloud strikes again blah

[TonyH]

Can't see North Sea cloud being a problem in July - famous last words!

[mushymanrob]

the outlooks looking good, these charts have been basically pretty much the same for several days now.

 

interestingly the ecm chart (on the left) suggests the centre of the high might be further east then the gfs (right) , and with troughing towards biscay/azores. this would indicate the possibility of a more southerly/thundery and hotter spell. if im reading it correctly!

Edited July 5, 2013 by mushymanrob