Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Captain Shortwave]

So the metoffice says another 10 years of summers with limpet troughs and then instantaneously we end up with a limpet Azores high over us 

[UV-RAY]

So the metoffice says another 10 years of summers with limpet troughs and then instantaneously we end up with a limpet Azores high over us

Lol, you knew as soon as they commented on the last five summers, then a heat wave would be upon us in no time. Fantastic outlook right out into the never never land. Edited July 6, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Summer Sun]

The rain spikes are starting to increase on the ensembles from the 13th onwards till then though it remains exceptionally dry away from parts of Scotland

 

 

The uppers start to go down to average as well from the 13th so cooler than of late but still pleasantly warm in the sunshine

 

10 day precipitation outlook shows any rainfall is going to be low

 

 

 

 

[butler_son]

If anything the models (or at least the ECM and GFS) seem to be extending this spell in the longer/unreliable timeframe at the moment.

 

GFS has upgraded temps next week end by quite a margin in the south:

That is likely to change a bit being at t+183, but nice to see the models aren't gradually eating away at temps now like some runs were before. It has also upgraded temps slightly next week compared to yesterday's runs.

 

I nearly choked on my morning waffle. As an east Dorset resident that is crazy! That's getting closer to the record temperature recorded locally at Hurn (34 degrees) so let's hope this keeps coming (though it is a Saturday and I'll be playing cricket so there would be a good chance of dying in the field if it's 31).

[gottolovethisweather]

Unbelivable models this morning!!it now looks like we wont see any low cloud at all next week!!amd temps will stay between 25-30 degrees!!

 

Yes, let's hope most get their fix of vitamin D or whatever it is from the beautiful sunshine on a daily basis. At that rate this ole house  will be getting a bit uncomfortable for sleeping but beggars can't be choosers.   

Edited July 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[NUT]

So the metoffice says another 10 years of summers with limpet troughs and then instantaneously we end up with a limpet Azores high over us 

Comedy post of the day Summer 2013 a washout? Um..........................  (there goes the instant theory of 10 washout summers in a row)!

[Methuselah]

I nearly choked on my morning waffle. As an east Dorset resident that is crazy! That's getting closer to the record temperature recorded locally at Hurn (34 degrees) so let's hope this keeps coming (though it is a Saturday and I'll be playing cricket so there would be a good chance of dying in the field if it's 31).

If you ever want to choke on 'waffle', you've come to the right place! 

[phil nw.]

An excellent week ahead for Summer lovers is still in prospect.

The Azores high parked pretty much over the top of us so with light breezes and strong sunshine plenty of high temperature readings will occur in the next few days.

 

There is that weakening weather front further north that will produce some cloud over the next 24hrs or so and then the only other possible fly in the ointment next week is the risk of low cloud mid-week towards some eastern coasts.

 

Last night's T120 fax shows why

 

fronts trailing over the top of the high coming down the north sea but indications are that this looks a very weak feature so at the moment maybe this will become less of a concern nearer the time.

 

Looking great overall though and any concerns about whether the temperature in different locations will be 23,25 28 or 30C plus i think are unnecessary -it should feel warm enough in that sun for any outside activities.

 

Just looking further ahead and as Gavin alluded to in his earlier post signs of some change as we into the following week.

Day 10 Ens means show pressure just falling away from the north

 

as the main High cell pulls back west.It does indicate more cloud with perhaps some rain over the far north as frontal systems start to drift further south from a developing Icelandic low.

 

Too early to say how much of a change this will be but it could be we pick a more typical n/s setup with heights still quite noticable further south extending the dry and fine theme beyond mid-month.

 

In the mean time let's enjoy what's in front of us.

[NUT]

Fantastic Phil. We been waiting quite a few years for a lovely azores to be pumped over us. Enjoy it people!

[gottolovethisweather]

If you ever want to choke on 'waffle', you've come to the right place! 

 

I hope you aren't referring to this post, Peter.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77164-model-output-discussion-12z-300613/?p=2730993

Edited July 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Methuselah]

I hope you aren't referring to this post, Peter.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77164-model-output-discussion-12z-300613/?p=2730993

No, to my own... 

[Evening thunder]

I nearly choked on my morning waffle. As an east Dorset resident that is crazy! That's getting closer to the record temperature recorded locally at Hurn (34 degrees) so let's hope this keeps coming (though it is a Saturday and I'll be playing cricket so there would be a good chance of dying in the field if it's 31).

 

Yes I was a bit surprised too, slightly higher temp predictions than you'd expect from the GFS with the uppers we have too. I think that is on the high end of possible temps but shows the very warm outlook continuing at least until next week end it looks like, with hot days possible if the high orientates favorably for that. I think I'd die doing anything too strenuous at 30C+ temps too!

 

Comedy post of the day Summer 2013 a washout? Um..........................  (there goes the instant theory of 10 washout summers in a row)!

 

Dreamt up, almost entirely, by the press   shame how many believe the rather 'creative' output/interpretations from certain media sources and associate it with the Met even on this forum but oh well.

 

Can't deny though it is a bit amusing that as soon as the media publish these interpretations this happens with our weather

Edited July 6, 2013 by Stormmad26

[Costa Del Fal]

Geez, GFS 06z looks like it could be even better than the 00z! Really special charts at the moment. The next week AT LEAST looks very sunny and above 25c here!

[Costa Del Fal]

Another stunning GFS 06z. Quite a few models seem to be going for high pressure to build pretty strong again next weekend ish and maybe push just to our East again. Could this hot spell be going on towards the 20th!!?!?!?!?

 

Lots to be resolved but to me it seems any unsettled weather keeps on getting pushed way back. Long may it continue.

 

ECM 00z Ensembles for London are pretty much Bone dry till at least the 20th!

Edited July 6, 2013 by Blizzards

[Bishop Brennan]

Geez, GFS 06z looks like it could be even better than the 00z! Really special charts at the moment. The next week AT LEAST looks very sunny and above 25c here!

 

C'mon Blizzy this is the Midlands thread..........surely you can find something negative to say about those charts??? 

 

Bish

[Costa Del Fal]

C'mon Blizzy this is the Midlands thread..........surely you can find something negative to say about those charts??? 

 

Bish

Model output Thread Bish

 

Something negative.... hmm thats a difficult one.... its not 40c???? :lol:

[Gordon Webb]

C'mon Blizzy this is the Midlands thread..........surely you can find something negative to say about those charts??? 

 

Bish

 

something negative eh

 

well the days are drawing in so less time to enjoy it

[Gustywind]

40c would be horrific, no thank you! Certainly looking good for at least another 7-10 days with the hp cell parked over us.

[Summer Sun]

The 06z ensembles are just starting to show a few more cooler permutations now from the 13th onwards from this point we start to see an increase in the rain spikes as well which suggests to me this spell of high pressure could start to ease away later next week of course before that we have 7 days of summery weather which we haven't seen on this scale since 2006 but there will even be exceptions to this mainly north west Scotland and perhaps parts of northern Ireland where rain and cloud is likely to spoil things at times like it is today.

 

The other exception is parts of the east cost where cloud is likely to roll in from Wednesday till the weekend keeping things here cloudy, dull and not all that warm compared to western parts with temperatures stuck in the mid teens at best and with an easterly breeze those right on the coast may be left wondering where the heatwave is

 

[Methuselah]

Can we please stay on topic...

[MR EXTREMES]

The 06z ensembles are just starting to show a few more cooler permutations now from the 13th onwards from this point we start to see an increase in the rain spikes as well which suggests to me this spell of high pressure could start to ease away later next week of course before that we have 7 days of summery weather which we haven't seen on this scale since 2006 but there will even be exceptions to this mainly north west Scotland and perhaps parts of northern Ireland where rain and cloud is likely to spoil things at times like it is today.

 

The other exception is parts of the east cost where cloud is likely to roll in from Wednesday till the weekend keeping things here cloudy, dull and not all that warm compared to western parts with temperatures stuck in the mid teens at best and with an easterly breeze those right on the coast may be left wondering where the heatwave is

 

 

nothing on the gfs looks like a major breakdown to be honest.

ecm 240hrs well into fi

gem 240 hrs shows a losen grip but this is way way out in fi so my thoughts are I don't see a breakdown I also see in tonights output of a possible reload situation a even steven enso could well be a god send for a nice summer.

[Cheshire Freeze]

nothing on the gfs looks like a major breakdown to be honest.

ecm 240hrs well into fi

gem 240 hrs shows a losen grip but this is way way out in fi so my thoughts are I don't see a breakdown I also see in tonights output of a possible reload situation a even steven enso could well be a god send for a nice summer.

I think once the 16-20th comes into view more on the NWP, we'll see the potential breakdown accelerate for around this period. Possibly quite unsettled and potentially convective IMO. This may stretch into August before an improvement as we head through the month. Late July and early August was always thought of as the unsettled period when I made my summer thoughts public a few months back.

[Neilsouth]

Are we at any point going to have atleast a week without a north east wind? It's ruining what could be a nice hot summer so far!

(North Sea Facing Coasts)

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Are we at any point going to have atleast a week without a north east wind? It's ruining what could be a nice hot summer so far!(North Sea Facing Coasts)

yes its very annoying lovely today then wednesday its all downhill with damn low cloud

[Summer Sun]

nothing on the gfs looks like a major breakdown to be honest.

ecm 240hrs well into fi

gem 240 hrs shows a losen grip but this is way way out in fi so my thoughts are I don't see a breakdown I also see in tonights output of a possible reload situation a even steven enso could well be a god send for a nice summer.

 

Looking at the ensembles GFS stays settled but ECM does lower pressure nothing drastic but more chance of cloud and rain if it happened