Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[049balt]

looking at the uppers, the ecm has the 15c isotherm over ireland for a while this week.... record breaking temps on the cards for ireland this week?

Yes,the Irish Met. have pencilled in 29c for the West of Ireland this week.

[Frosty.]

WOW check out the latest Ecm 00z ensemble mean, it's an EPIC run for the southern half of the uk with the high temperatures of 26 celsius plus continuing for the next 10 days at least with high pressure remaining strong throughout, further north there is only a slow erosion of the fine and very warm spell between days 7-10 but that's still outside the reliable timeframe, the week ahead is going to be superb for most of the uk apart from the very far north, the 850's are excellent for the south, proper summer weather for a change.

[The PIT]

Well the 00 oz GFS showed a potential nice cool down to more reasonable temperatures now waiting on the 06oz . Horrid run from the GEM showing the spell to continue just need the temps to get down to 20C to 22C and it will be just right. UKMO not showing any signs of relief either.

[bluearmy]

After reading some of your posts(couple of weeks prior to this wonderful spell SPELL of summer weather(a touch IMBY i admit but its widespread compared to the last 7 chocolate efforts) id say your instinct has been very good...and i like many hope your RIGHT,probably like many hope your wrong but hey ho cant please everyone!

Snowking posted an excellent explanation of these...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

and they look good to me.....ECM better of the two?

 

ecm looks better as the ecm op is a better run for sustained warmth than the gfs op.

 

gfs op did not want to raise slp and heights to our se in fi whereas ecm does.  looking at ens guidance would have me in ecm's camp on this one. you are much better using ens means rather than these meteo.psu charts in isolation. JH always quotes these but uses them in conjunction with ens data and basically they becomes the operational run confirmation of the ens tendancy.

[Geordiesnow]

Well the 00 oz GFS showed a potential nice cool down to more reasonable temperatures now waiting on the 06oz . Horrid run from the GEM showing the spell to continue just need the temps to get down to 20C to 22C and it will be just right. UKMO not showing any signs of relief either.

 

I think their might be some relief from the heat midweek this week for some with more low cloud coming into play(if going by the GFS PPN charts, it may turn out to be quite extensive) but for SW England parts of Wales and in particular both Northern Ireland and Republic of Ireland, it could be the best and warmest spell of summery weather for years! 

 

It does look like the low cloud risk will decrease though as we head towards the end of the week, especially in the Northern half of the UK as the upper winds will be coming from inland. 

[mushymanrob]

Again using my instinct I shall disagree.

 

The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow.

 

For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

 

i think you could be right, 'late' starts to summery hot spells (like 83 and 91, two examples of summers that were good/great after a poor june), had a continuation or rebuild of hot sunny conditions once the initial one had kicked in in early july. of course late july / early august are the hottest time of the year, so any rebuild/continuation could easily top this one.

 

on the other hand we might go the way of 06, which august was largely overcast, much cooler and rather dull. if my memory serves me correctly we both didnt expect the july heat to return once it had passed...

[The PIT]

Yes looks like a reload jobby slight cool down midweek then back to uncomfortable unpleasant conditions once again. Long range cfs doesn't show much comfort either for next week.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z is a mainly dry run for most of the uk, especially for the southern half and the mostly hot and sunny weather continues for the next few weeks, the hottest weather shifts around the uk as the orientation and shape of the anticyclone changes during the course of the next week or so, eventually the hottest weather becomes confined to the southern half of britain along with the highest sunshine totals with the north of the uk and chiefly the far northwest slowly becoming more changeable with some rain but still a good deal of dry and warm weather too, there is also a risk of a few isolated heavy showers but mostly across the hills and mountains in scotland through the next 7 days and also a risk of some patchy rain or drizzle brushing across the western & northern isles as weak fronts occasionally push around the top of the main anticyclone but for most of the uk it looks dry, hot and sunny although occasionally feeling a little fresher but still very warm, especially in the far east but generally hot. The further outlook is cooler across scotland but remaining very warm or hot further south.

[Cloud 10]

The Gfs 06z 

 Any charts to back that up?.. 

[MR EXTREMES]

as eye in the sky said earlier and as I said last night im of the fence a continued wobble of heights and then a rebuild from the sw from the azores theres good indication of this with neither el nino or la nina conditions in the tropical pacific.

 

all in all get that sun cream on and keep an eye out for the older people.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Sorry for being off topic but they just said on centre court its into the 40's thats some heat

[NorthernRab]

Sorry for being off topic but they just said on centre court its into the 40's thats some heat

 

Yes, it's because it's a tightly packed arena surrounding the court, any machinery and all the people will be pushing the temperature up and it will be trapped within the arena if there's little wind. 

 

Scorchio anyway! Temp around 28'C near Wimbledon.

[mushymanrob]

Sorry for being off topic but they just said on centre court its into the 40's thats some heat

 

as i understood it, that was the temperature at grass level... not the air temp. i remember in 76 they showed the thermometer at 90f... cant see the air temp being much higher then that at the most.

[SunnySouthCoast]

as i understood it, that was the temperature at grass level... not the air temp. i remember in 76 they showed the thermometer at 90f... cant see the air temp being much higher then that at the most.

 

BBC Weather tweeted that it was 30C in the shade on centre court & that it was the hottest Wimbledon final since Borg beat Nastase in 1976.

[nitro_deluxe]

Slight dip in temps mid weekish then back up to 30c, possibly above? Again by next Saturday. Heat is on.

[Captain Shortwave]

Slight dip in temps mid weekish then back up to 30c, possibly above? Again by next Saturday. Heat is on.

Seems to be where the bbc forecasts are heading, next weekend could possibly be hotter than this one just gone. 

[Methuselah]

Meanwhile, a lovely cooling sea breeze has sprung up...

[ribster]

Seems to be where the bbc forecasts are heading, next weekend could possibly be hotter than this one just gone.

It ought to be, I'm not one for heat, but it hasn't been that hot or uncomfortable here. Not quite like previous heatwaves I recall. As for 26c being epic - really?

[pad199207]

Just seen the local weather here and a lot of 28's and mention of 29c on the days this week!

Had a high of 26.5c yesterday

Had a high of  23.9c today

[Jax]

Meanwhile, a lovely cooling sea breeze has sprung up...

where was it?  Derby?

[Neilsouth]

It ought to be, I'm not one for heat, but it hasn't been that hot or uncomfortable here. Not quite like previous heatwaves I recall. As for 26c being epic - really?

 

Agreed, people complaining over 28C..... Remember when it used to hit 32C with high humidity!

 

Was nice here bar the annoying north east wind, i'm still waiting for that heatwavve

Which the models have yet to show

[Jax]

Agreed, people complaining over 28C..... Remember when it used to hit 32C with high humidity!

 

Was nice here bar the annoying north east wind, i'm still waiting for that heatwavve

Which the models have yet to show

heat wavve? (now that sounds dodgy)

 

AFAICS the models and forecast have seen this heat for our area and we got it.

[Captain Shortwave]

It ought to be, I'm not one for heat, but it hasn't been that hot or uncomfortable here. Not quite like previous heatwaves I recall. As for 26c being epic - really?

26c, better than forecast for Beccles to be honest

GFS is a bit meh, GEM is an absolute corker of a run and would be a heatwave starting next Saturday onwards with uppers widely 14c

[Barry12]

Certainly feels like a heatwave here, reached 28C I believe.

 

ECM 12z is out...

 

Wednesday

 

Thursday

 

Friday

 

Saturday

 

Sunday

 

Edited July 7, 2013 by Barry95

[Panayiotis]

The GEM is a cracking run with high pressure out the 17th July.

 

The ECM at 192hrs retreats the high south-west giving the north more vulnerability to cloud and rain however further south should remain dry with sunshine:

 

One thing for sure however is that any break down remains in the unreliable timeframe,so this spell could last longer but as ever we shall see with further model runs!

Edited July 7, 2013 by Panayiotis