Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Tony27]

looks like another eastward push of the high for midweek, hopefully that low cloud sods off

[Summer Sun]

After a hot weekend and start to next week it looks like the high temperatures on Wednesday will shift slightly further west with some eastern spots seeing temperatures in the mid / high teens to low 20's

 

 

The NE'ly wind could be quite strong in the SE as well especially on the coast

 

 

It starts sunny in the SE but cloud rolls in during the day the NE is stuck with cloud as well hence the lower temperatures

 

 

This looks to be only day during the working week which sees cloud spoiling things in the east on the 12z run all is going to depend on where the high places its self

 

Friday hots up away from the coast with 30c possible in some parts of east Yorkshire

 

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the uppers on GFS and they are showing the warmest uppers slowly moving away during next weekend with Scotland becoming cooler first with the high moving west allowing cooler winds to filter down again the east looks to be the spot most affect by this with cloud amounts increasing

 

Here's a sequence from 20:00 Friday to 02:00 Sunday

 

Edited July 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Tony27]

funny how gavin sounds negative when we are in a good spell of weather, but is very positive if we see fantasy charts at T240, tbh i think this low cloud thing is being overplayed, there might be some around in the morning but it will soon burn off, pressure is still fairly high over us even if the centre of the high is out west going by the GFS , the UKMO is not quite as good as the GFS though for midweek and it may be cloudy in the far east, if the cloud gets this far west then i will stop looking at these 500mb charts as they are pointless and deceptive

[Downpour]

Are we at any point going to have atleast a week without a north east wind? It's ruining what could be a nice hot summer so far!(North Sea Facing Coasts)

For crying out loud.

[WheresTheSnow]

I know this is pretty much cherry picking but I couldn't resist:

 

Now that would be HOT!

 

Anyway, back to the garden for me now...

[Summer Sun]

If the heat is going to ease away next week its going to got out with some very hot weather

 

29c at least on Friday

 

 

32c at least on Saturday

 

 

Sunday on goes to 12:00pm but another 32c looks quite possible but in the north its becoming cooler with north west Scotland going from the low 20's to the low teens

 

 

Next weekend still looks to be the transition from warm and settled to still warm in the south but more unsettled

 

Sunday is the final day of this heatwave according to GFS

 

 

14th see's some low pressure starting to move in

 

 

15th is more unsettled across more of the UK

 

 

By the 19th we remain in the unsettled pattern of sunshine and showers

 

 

Right at the end we see high pressure moving across the south but the north remains more unsettled

 

 

Now some folk may think I'm am been negative but the transition to something less settled next weekend does have support from the ensembles as you can see here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/77164-model-output-discussion-12z-300613/?p=2731120 - there is a clear drop in the uppers from the 13th.

 

Now of course this is by no means set in stone but at this stage a move to something less settled during next weekend and into the following week looks favoured

 

Before this though a week of hot weather is on the cards from many with just a few exceptions NW Scotland and coastal areas where temperatures will be fresher in the east with a cloudy blip possible for a few days from Wednesday till the weekend

 

 

 

 

[Costa Del Fal]

The CFS is a horrow show for the second half

If July and the first half of August with troughs slap bang over us. Thankfully it is flipping an awf lot between that and more Azores high pressure spells. Meanwhile I feel most models are starting to think the high pressure ending in about 8-10 days time though could all change still. Next weekend uncertain. GFS seems more keen to back the high west rather than east but still this spell has only just begun and loving t already so enjoy!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has the high firmly in place by the end of next week

 

 

GFS for the same time

 

[Costa Del Fal]

Gem12z also going for a rapid cool down next Sunday. All far off but no sign this evening of the high rebuilding and shifting east as touted earlier.

[Cheese Rice]

So are we just going to ignore the ECM which is looking amazing for a prolonged spell of warm sunny weather.

[Geordiesnow]

The fairly good news from tonights output does seem the UKMO/GFS are not backing the ECM for a keener NE'ly flow so I'm starting to believe more the low cloud risk may only affect some eastern areas and that the main risk may only last on Wednesday with the high trying to nose into a more favorable position for the most part from Thursday onwards 

 

Regarding any breakdown, no doubt we will see some sort of signal for things to break down but its just too far out how it will breakdown and when it will breakdown. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

So are we just going to ignore the ECM which is looking amazing for a prolonged spell of warm sunny weather.

IMO we'll start to see the 216 and 240 hour charts of the ECM erode the high over the next few runs as the pattern change is picked up. Still, 7-10 days of fine weather in the meantime is not to be sniffed at!

[TobyT]

I do think the models overplay the cooling effect of onshore breeze from the North Sea somewhat. I am 12 miles from the Norfolk coast and have had a breeze of around 5 to 10 mph from NE max temp has hit 26.2c around 3pm its now 24.9c so if this is the full extent of the cooling north sea effect on temp for the coming week I wont be complaining at its plenty warm enough for me. Sorry for the IMBY post but I think the east wont fair too badly overall throughout this warm/hot spell.

Edited July 6, 2013 by TobyT

[Scorcher]

IMO we'll start to see the 216 and 240 hour charts of the ECM erode the high over the next few runs as the pattern change is picked up. Still, 7-10 days of fine weather in the meantime is not to be sniffed at!

 

Until we actually see this actually happen though it's mainly just a hunch. The models initially showed something of a breakdown in the high pressure and warmth for midweek but this soon disappeared. What I find interesting is how when this high pressure was shown at 216 hours people kept talking about the fact that it was 'still FI' but when it's unsettled conditions it seems 216 hours is reliable. I thought the reliable time frame was under 144 hours?

[Cheese Rice]

IMO we'll start to see the 216 and 240 hour charts of the ECM erode the high over the next few runs as the pattern change is picked up. Still, 7-10 days of fine weather in the meantime is not to be sniffed at!

 

I'll hold you to that! 

[Evening thunder]

The ECM this morning certainly didn't go for a quick cool down this weekend though, by Tuesday:

So I'm not gunna get too hung up over the break down yet as soon as this spell starts. It may change tonight but that would mean inconsistency not a trend yet (at least for next weekend). My way of thinking though is usually that anything a model shows is possible, unless the model's physics is flawed.. that includes good and bad output.

[cheese]

I do think the models overplay the cooling effect of onshore breeze from the North Sea somewhat. I am 12 miles from the Norfolk coast and have had a breeze of around 5 to 10 mph from NE max temp has hit 26.2c around 3pm its now 24.9c so if this is the full extent of the cooling north sea effect on temp for the coming week I wont be complaining at its plenty warm enough for me. Sorry for the IMBY post but I think the east wont fair too badly overall throughout this warm/hot spell.

 

GFS always overdoes the effect wind has on temperatures, especially along the coasts - for example, if there is even the slightest chance of a sea breeze developing, it essentially classes all of Kent and East Anglia as 'coastal' and has them down for 18 - 20C.

Edited July 6, 2013 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

Until we actually see this actually happen though it's mainly just a hunch. The models initially showed something of a breakdown in the high pressure and warmth for midweek but this soon disappeared. What I find interesting is how when this high pressure was shown at 216 hours people kept talking about the fact that it was 'still FI' but when it's unsettled conditions it seems 216 hours is reliable. I thought the reliable time frame was under 144 hours?

 

Must admit it seems that way to me too, and then some say that people look at settled/warm charts in FI as if it's gunna happen even though it's FI so shouldn't post them so much. Just an observation that I don't think people always posting settled warmth and dismissing unsettled charts is as widespread as some think.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I do think the models overplay the cooling effect of onshore breeze from the North Sea somewhat. I am 12 miles from the Norfolk coast and have had a breeze of around 5 to 10 mph from NE max temp has hit 26.2c around 3pm its now 24.9c so if this is the full extent of the cooling north sea effect on temp for the coming week I wont be complaining at its plenty warm enough for me. Sorry for the IMBY post but I think the east wont fair too badly overall throughout this warm/hot spell.

yes i agree tony mate i live right on the coast both yesterday and today been cracking days also with a sea breeze we got to 23c today 24c yesterday lovely

[Summer Sun]

The latest BBC forecast highlights the risk of cloud and maybe even mist affecting the east coast next week bringing a drop in temperatures here

 

The headline from them for next week is

 

Largely sunny

 

Very warm

 

Cloud risk east coasts

[Cheshire Freeze]

Until we actually see this actually happen though it's mainly just a hunch. The models initially showed something of a breakdown in the high pressure and warmth for midweek but this soon disappeared. What I find interesting is how when this high pressure was shown at 216 hours people kept talking about the fact that it was 'still FI' but when it's unsettled conditions it seems 216 hours is reliable. I thought the reliable time frame was under 144 hours?

 

I've made no secret of the fact I've plumped for the late July-early August period to be unsettled over the last few months. I was seeing this signal back in April along with the suggestion that summer would NOT be a repeat of the last several. In fact I quantified that 2/3 of the summer would be extremely useable, with the end of July and first part of August going some way to making up the 1/3 of less clement weather.

 

I've seen nothing to sway me away from this suggestion of an unsettled spell starting around the 240h+ timeframe. Obviously this may be +/- a few days but the general thinking remains the same.

 

Obviously I could be completely wrong but only time will tell  I don't think August will be a washout either. Iffy start followed by a settling down once more.

Edited July 6, 2013 by CreweCold

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think that it is highly probable that our present anticyclone will retreat to the west or south-west at some point during the remainder of July and will allow cooler and more changeable conditions in from the north-west.  However, it is looking unlikely to happen within the next week.  Realistically we're looking at a breakdown somewhere between the 15th and 25th of the month in my opinion- I've cited a large range there because sometimes the models can be too progressive in bringing in the Atlantic, particularly at upwards of 7 days out.

 

In my month-ahead forecast for Net-weather I went for a notably dry July with sunshine 20-30% above average over most of England and Wales (perhaps 40% above in some parts of the SW) and 10-20% above over much of Scotland.  Given that this is a pretty clear anticyclone, if this high sticks around until the 20th or later, those predictions may if anything end up on the conservative side for England and Wales- the potential is there for comparable sunshine totals to those of the likes of Julys 1955, 1989 and 2006, although Scotland and Northern Ireland will always be rather more prone to banks of cloud, especially the north and west of Scotland.

Edited July 6, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[Summer Sun]

12z ensembles continue to show the transition to something more unsettled from the 13th onwards its at this time we see the uppers starting to fall away and the rain spikes start to increase

 

 

The precipitation forecast shows the increase in rain from the 14th to 22nd

 

 

Temperatures also start to fall in the north from the 14th to 22nd whilst the south hold on to the warmer weather

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z remains fine till t168 this evening we even have +15 uppers over parts of Ireland for a time