Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Captain Shortwave]

Holy moly, GEM is a stonker of a run. The high is more centred over the UK so low cloud is less of an issue and the high drifts east over the weekend setting up a South Easterly flow. A shallow trough then develops to the South West bring increased heat/humidity and the risk of some thunderstorms.

 

 

 

[NorthernRab]

The 10 day precipitation outlook shows a very dry picture across England we'll see a lot of lawns turning brown over the next 10 days unless there kept watered

 

 

That looks extremely dry for Sutherland and Ross - serious risk of some forest fires if that  was to happen!

[rmc1987]

Well the 6z rolling out and very little difference so far in expected max temps , I get a little confused about how the netweather gfs chart viewer works , on the uk max temp option there is no difference over the UK at all on maxes expected between 9pm and Midnight ... I mean it is very unlikely to be 25 deg at midnight as shown in the chart below , is this a technical issue ?

Temperatures getting lower and lower for here and East as next week gets closer. Mid 20s at a push now for Tuesday. Heatwave category it isn't.

[Milhouse]

Not looking too bad on the GFS 12z

 

[peterf]

Hope some members are not being too complacent about the low cloud risk for around midweek next week, the GFS shows this nicely on the 00Z run but the good news is that the NE'ly flow is not quite as pronounced as yesterday's run but I still fancy low cloud to be an issue even if the flow was slacker.  Its also hard to predict how much low cloud(if it arrives) will burn off, sometimes it can be rather stubborn and sometimes it burns very quickly to the coasts so its one to keep an eye one. Hopefully what we will see is that this low cloud risk will only last a day or two before the high try and sit in a better position but any areas that do get low cloud off the North Sea will experience cooler conditions.  I still fancy most western areas to stay low cloud free for the most part although even here some may roll in during night time hours.

You just cant help it can you,must be awful to wake up every morning and only see negatives?

[NorthernRab]

Temperatures getting lower and lower for here and East as next week gets closer. Mid 20s at a push now for Tuesday. Heatwave category it isn't.

 

Except that there are many more days in the week other than Tuesday! 

 

Like Saturday

 

 

Sunday 

 

 

 

And even Monday

 

 

 

Point is, there's some lovely hot weather to come beforehand in the reliable timeframe! 

[Scorcher]

You just cant help it can you,must be awful to wake up every morning and only see negatives?

 

Please stop quoting Geordiesnow, his posts depress me every evening which means he's on my ignore list, unfortunately people keep quoting him so I still have to read them!

[MR EXTREMES]

168 ecm looks rather nice to breakdown where lol

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

[Summer Sun]

ECM a lot more settled this evening when compared to previous runs in FI

 

[MR EXTREMES]

168 ecm looks rather nice to breakdown where lol

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

 

little hot and humid that's the gem and ecm gfs onboard could cool off a little then the height builds futher.

[Milhouse]

Once again its a very good ECM run. Lets be honest we are very rarely going to see a run that pleases everyone. Temperatures will likely fall during next week but they will only fall back to the low to mid 20s before high pressure descends back over the UK cutting off the cooler, cloudier flow from the NE meaning that temperatures should be back on the rise.

[MR EXTREMES]

 

little hot and humid that's the gem and ecm gfs onboard could cool off a little then the height builds futher.

sorry im mean the ecm 240hrs

[Summer Sun]

t240 shows pressure loosing its grip slightly but as with previous runs this hinted breakdown is always stays well in FI and isn't moving forward so far

 

Edited July 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Milhouse]

ECM ends very warm and dry. With low pressure tracking west to east across Iceland at T+240 i cant see anything other than a continuation of the summery conditions. Any breakdown on the GFS remains far into FI.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Milhouse

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends very warm and dry. With low pressure tracking west to east across Iceland at T+240 i cant see anything other than a continuation of the summery conditions. Any breakdown on the GFS remains far into FI.

 

This is reminding me of when we get high pressure in FI and it never comes to the reliable the same is happening with low pressure this time its in FI but aint moving any further this spell of settled weather looks like lasting for the foreseeable future with just Scotland and parts of Ireland at risk of some cloudier conditions at times with some light rain

[JK1]

would be even better if we could get proper heat of the continent, any chance of that happening this summer?

Edited July 5, 2013 by JK1

[Geordiesnow]

You just cant help it can you,must be awful to wake up every morning and only see negatives?

 

And yet another off topic post by yourself in the model thread... I was just highlighting that I hope some members don't get too complacent at the low cloud risk for mid-week, that is all because the risk is there, even the BBC forecasts are hinting at this! Surely not even you can argue with that... 

 

For the most part I hope and don't think low cloud will be much of an issue and the main risk where low cloud may linger is Wednesday as there is hints the high may edge eastwards again afterwards therefore cutting off the easterly flow. 

 

If I can't post what I see on the models in this thread then what is the point? I been highlighting the risk of a weather front toppling in during Saturday and Sunday for some Northern areas and this will happen(although it seems the front may topple as far South as first thought). Now I've been highlighting the risk of some low cloud in some eastern areas(which may spread westwards during Tuesday night) and I get Peter(yet again) on my back for being negative. Admittedly I have been wrong before and in terms of the low cloud risk, a slight shift in the high pressure cell may decrease the risk of low cloud coming into play but I thought its just worth mentioning that the risk is there so members don't think there area is going to see wall to wall sunshine for the next week or so.

 

I also seen some members saying how can low cloud form is pressure is so high but remember low cloud forms over the Sea and with very warm air, it creates moisture so low cloud tends to form. Its not quite that stright forward and there is complications but from my experience whenever a NE'ly breeze occur, low cloud is never too far away, tend to get away with one sunny day then the cloud rolls in during the evening and that what I may think happen on Tuesday in some Eastern areas. 

[Captain Shortwave]

And yet another off topic post by yourself in the model thread... I was just highlighting that I hope some members don't get too complacent at the low cloud risk for mid-week, that is all because the risk is there, even the BBC forecasts are hinting at this! Surely not even you can argue with that... 

 

For the most part I hope and don't think low cloud will be much of an issue and the main risk where low cloud may linger is Wednesday as there is hints the high may edge eastwards again afterwards therefore cutting off the easterly flow. 

 

If I can't post what I see on the models in this thread then what is the point? I been highlighting the risk of a weather front toppling in during Saturday and Sunday for some Northern areas and this will happen(although it seems the front may topple as far South as first thought). Now I've been highlighting the risk of some low cloud in some eastern areas(which may spread westwards during Tuesday night) and I get Peter(yet again) on my back for being negative. Admittedly I have been wrong before and in terms of the low cloud risk, a slight shift in the high pressure cell may decrease the risk of low cloud coming into play but I thought its just worth mentioning that the risk is there so members don't think there area is going to see wall to wall sunshine for the next week or so.

 

I also seen some members saying how can low cloud form is pressure is so high but remember low cloud forms over the Sea and with very warm air, it creates moisture so low cloud tends to form. Its not quite that stright forward and there is complications but from my experience whenever a NE'ly breeze occur, low cloud is never too far away, tend to get away with one sunny day then the cloud rolls in during the evening and that what I may think happen on Tuesday in some Eastern areas. 

It's fine to point these things out. Just an add on, the recent ECM run is pretty poor for the South East from midweek (especially coastal areas) as cool air gets trapped right over us whilst stuck with a gentle to moderate north easterly. Could be the beginning of June all over again. On the other hand a very slight shift east and whilst wind direction doesn't change, having the air circulating around the British isles would cut out the low cloud for all locations. It only needs about a 50 mile shift east to be honest for most eastern areas. 

The latter stages also disappointed me a little as the upstream low tries to undercut our high instead of riding over the top towards Iceland/Greenland and fully pumping warm air towards us. We just kind of get cut off with a reasonably warm set up.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SizzlingHeat]

Great for bournemouth lololololololololololololol enjoy the low cloud il enjoy mid high twenties lololololololol

Lololololololol

[Methuselah]

It's fine to point these things out. Just an add on, the recent ECM run is pretty poor for the South East from midweek (especially coastal areas) as cool air gets trapped right over us whilst stuck with a gentle to moderate north easterly. Could be the beginning of June all over again. On the other hand a very slight shift east and whilst wind direction doesn't change, having the air circulating around the British isles would cut out the low cloud for all locations. It only needs about a 50 mile shift east to be honest for most eastern areas. 

The latter stages also disappointed me a little as the upstream low tries to undercut our high instead of riding over the top towards Iceland/Greenland and fully pumping warm air towards us. We just kind of get cut off with a reasonably warm set up.

Come on, CS...We are bound to get something (unpleasant) off the North Sea, at some stage??? But, overall, we don't do too bad... 

[SizzlingHeat]

Not as good as bournemouth lolololololol

[Captain Shortwave]

Come on, CS...We are bound to get something (unpleasant) off the North Sea, at some stage??? But, overall, we don't do too bad... 

I get to look at it everyday, rather see a naked picture of Ann Widdecombe 

Bartletts are always good for us, just useless for the other 90% of the UK

Edited July 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Gordon Webb]

I get to look at it everyday, rather see a naked picture of Ann Widdecombe 

Bartletts are always good for us, just useless for the other 90% of the UK

 

if I saw a naked picture of Ann Widdecombe I'd be praying for low cloud , fog ,blinds, solar eclipses , fantastic sun glasses the works anything but that

[Captain Shortwave]

if I saw a naked picture of Ann Widdecombe I'd be praying for low cloud , fog ,blinds, solar eclipses , fantastic sun glasses the works anything but that

The north sea is pretty dreadful. 50 shades of brown dreadful. But this is going off topic   

[peterf]

Please stop quoting Geordiesnow, his posts depress me every evening which means he's on my ignore list, unfortunately people keep quoting him so I still have to read them!

It's harder to swallow for us other Geordies believe me.the bloke's a manic depressive lol. Edited July 5, 2013 by peterf