Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a shift south on the ECM tonight. What this does do is stop the low cloud feed for eastern areas from Thursday onwards with a westerly set up, still fine for most of the UK and very warm (especially in the South)

North/south split developing in days 7 to 10. Personally for me this a "bank" run with temperatures for the south east pushing 30 degrees, only the coasts cooler with onshore breezes though even here it would be much warmer than previous runs. On the other hand North western areas are worse off with low cloud and occasional light rain and drizzle along with cooler temperatures. Swings and roundabouts.

Edited July 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Scorcher]

ECM 12z remains fine till t168 this evening we even have +15 uppers over parts of Ireland for a time

 

 

 

 

ECM is basically fine for most until t216 and this seems to be a warmer run for most if anything for the week ahead. Low pressure does begin to encroach on north western areas at t240 but this also helps to bring up some even warmer air for the south of the UK with high pressure moving to our east.  

 

15C uppers actually affect Ireland for much of the run, it's going to be a tremendous week there particularly in the west. High 20s for much of the west of Ireland I imagine until the end of the week. Overall another superb run for most of us.

Edited July 6, 2013 by Scorcher

[Milhouse]

ECM is basically fine for most until t216 and this seems to be a warmer run for most if anything for the week ahead. Low pressure does begin to encroach on north western areas at t240 but this also helps to bring up some even warmer air for the south of the UK with high pressure moving to our east.  

 

15C uppers actually affect Ireland for much of the run, it's going to be a tremendous week there particularly in the west. High 20s for much of the west of Ireland I imagine until the end of the week. Overall another superb run for most of us.

 

Observing the direction that low is heading in the latter stages of the ECM it doesnt seem to be heading towards the UK thanks to high pressure remaining strong. It would mean a transition to a more unsettled regime for northwestern Scotland.

[Summer Sun]

A fine weekend looks on the cards next week according to the ECM ensemble

 

 

By t192 we can just see the first hints of the high starting to shift south but its another hot sunny day for many

 

 

By t216 we see the high has left the UK and we're left with pressure of 1015mb no washout by any means but perhaps more cloud around than we've been use to with a few showers developing given the warmth

 

 

Tuesday is a carbon copy of Monday

 

[MP-R]

This is a long way out, I know, but what are the signals for the latter third of July, specifically around the 23rd? This is my 21st and a BBQ is planned, having not had rain on it ever it would be a shame for a pattern change to take place with rain on the cards.

[peterf]

This is a long way out, I know, but what are the signals for the latter third of July, specifically around the 23rd? This is my 21st and a BBQ is planned, having not had rain on it ever it would be a shame for a pattern change to take place with rain on the cards.

5000+ posts and you ask a question like that?the mind boggles at times.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Gavin, you take FI way too seriously.

[TEITS]

I think that it is highly probable that our present anticyclone will retreat to the west or south-west at some point during the remainder of July and will allow cooler and more changeable conditions in from the north-west.  However, it is looking unlikely to happen within the next week.

Again using my instinct I shall disagree.

 

The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow.

 

For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

[Nick L]

Again using my instinct I shall disagree.

 

The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow.

 

For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

 

To be fair, it IS highly probable that it will retreat somewhat purely because changeable is what a typical British summer is! Why do you think a heatwave of such magnitude is on the way? I'm just curious as there's no concrete sign suggesting so.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

To be fair, it IS highly probable that it will retreat somewhat purely because changeable is what a typical British summer is! Why do you think a heatwave of such magnitude is on the way? I'm just curious as there's no concrete sign suggesting so.

To be fair, nobody knows, not even the models what mid July onwards will hold. And eye in the sky was spot on about this current spell from quite a considerable distance out. So I actually take his word for it.

[MP-R]

 

Again using my instinct I shall disagree.
 
The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow.
 
For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

Thanks for that! Fingers crossed, the models are certainly progging a fantastic week if warmth and sunshine is what one is after.

Edited July 6, 2013 by shuggee

[Geordiesnow]

To be fair, it IS highly probable that it will retreat somewhat purely because changeable is what a typical British summer is! Why do you think a heatwave of such magnitude is on the way? I'm just curious as there's no concrete sign suggesting so.

 

One may argue Ireland could head into a heatwave this week with the models projecting some hot temps compared to the average for Ireland for more than 3 consecutive days. 

 

Be interesting what the highest temperatures will be across Ireland and Northern Ireland. 

[peterf]

Meaning what exactly lol? Just because I have 5000+ posts doesn't mean I am one of the more experienced on here who is knowledgeable about long range forecasts....

Think before you type mate!

 

 

Thanks for that! Fingers crossed, the models are certainly progging a fantastic week if warmth and sunshine is what one is after.

with all due respect that is the reason for my reply to your post.

stop yapping and do some learning, you might be able to figure out the impossible yaself

[peterf]

the deletions continue as deemed appropriate i see,.pays to leave the thread be it seems.

Where in the world is this MOD discussion?

more like a forecast request in my book.

------------------

Posted Today, 21:59

This is a long way out, I know, but what are the signals for the latter third of July, specifically around the 23rd? This is my 21st and a BBQ is planned, having not had rain on it ever it would be a shame for a pattern change to take place with rain on the cards.

delete with some quantum of fairness please.

[Tony27]

bbc said cloud could be an issue on monday in the east, the 500mb charts are next to useless with all it's fancy red colours, i thought the cloud was mean't to come in on wednesday, best stick to bbc graphics, anyway if the cloud burns off by mid morning that's not a big problem really

[Geordiesnow]

bbc said cloud could be an issue on monday in the east, the 500mb charts are next to useless with all it's fancy red colours, i thought the cloud was mean't to come in on wednesday, best stick to bbc graphics, anyway if the cloud burns off by mid morning that's not a big problem really

 

I can't talk about the 500MB charts in terms what they mean in terms of low cloud but it does surprise me low cloud is being talked about considering any easterly flow looks too slack too me for low cloud to be an issue, during Tuesday, the high retreats westwards somewhat and we get a more Northerly/NNW'ly except in the far South so whilst sea breezes may develop upper air winds I would imagine may be more Northerly so low cloud may not be much of an issue during Tuesday either however it changes by Wednesday and there might even be some frontal cloud coming into play aswell as the low cloud. ECM still seem keen to go for a slightly stronger flow but perhaps not as strong as some runs. 

 

I am also interested by the BBC change of title of "cooler by midweek" seems rather mis-leading too me and may suggest a slight Southern and Eastern bias in the forecasts because for the Midlands, it stlll looks very warm to hot too me and Northern Ireland and parts of Scotland looks like will have higher temps than they do at the moment with more sunshine.

 

Models are struggling with what orientation the high will be which is understandable at a medium range but the main message does seem to be next week will be dry and warm. Just how much cloud there will be seems to be the biggest question mark at the moment. 

[DAVID SNOW]

To be fair, it IS highly probable that it will retreat somewhat purely because changeable is what a typical British summer is! Why do you think a heatwave of such magnitude is on the way? I'm just curious as there's no concrete sign suggesting so.

Take it or leave it,but as the man says he is using his instinct...............

[Captain Shortwave]

Surface heights showing up on both GFS and ECM after the Azores high pulls away next weekend. These heights perhaps might give the hottest weather of this spell with temperatures perhaps reaching the low thirties next weekend and possibly beyond. All FI though and more runs needed of course.

[Robbie Garrett]

Again using my instinct I shall disagree.

 

The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow.

 

For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

 

 

Retreats west and high pressure builds into Europe, low pressure stalls and pumps up warm humid air towards the UK.   La Spanish Plume we have...

 

CFS diagram is underdoing temperatures by 8-10*C, so if that was my money. Mid to high 30's can't be ruled out as the month progresses. 

 

Edited July 7, 2013 by Robbie Garrett

[mushymanrob]

looking at the uppers, the ecm has the 15c isotherm over ireland for a while this week.... record breaking temps on the cards for ireland this week?

[Frosty.]

Fantastic 00z output again this morning, especially from the Ecm with the anticyclonic, hot, dry and sunny weather persisting throughout the week ahead, especially further south, temperatures into the mid to high 20's celsius and low 30's, even scotland having a warm or very warm and mostly sunny week with only the far north being duller, breezier and cooler, the ecm maintains the hot settled spell across the south out to T+240 and beyond, just the far north of the uk tending to become more unsettled with atlantic weather spreading across as the high adjusts south slightly over time, stunning output for the south, the ukmo 00z also very warm and settled for the week ahead.

[bluearmy]

there is, of course, no evidence to support Dave's instincts, but he could be right. the models showing the metoffice 15 dayer to be a reasonable summary of where we are. there has been no appetite to throw up any week 2 plumes on the spread 850's from either naefs or ecm.  anyone expecting weeks of completely dry countrywide is going to be disappointed but there is decent enough evidence that any precip will be fairly suppressed the further south you are. the last third of the month up for grabs but the lattitude of the thicknesses has gone further north such that any trough finding its way into nw europe should be shallower than we saw in june. A 'summery' model outlook in july - been 7 years since we saw that.

[Gustywind]

Think we've seen in winters past that once the Azores high puts in an appearance, it tends to hang around for some considerable time, usually till spring.

July 2006 also saw repeat episodes of blocking, albeit positioned slightly further east than the current one.

As such I agree there's a high possibility of a repeat episode once this spell breaks down, my own guess for this would first two weeks in August. No idea if we will get a southerly plume though in such an episode.

[Frosty.]

The Gem 00z is a peach this morning, a gem of a run, especially further south and for the week ahead, a nationwide heatwave with dry, hot and sunny weather day after day, it's only beyond the next week that the high sinks south slightly which allows atlantic weather to eventually spread across the northern third of the uk but even that is well into FI, just like the ecm 00z, this run is superb for southern britain for the hot spell to carry on for the next 7-10 days, slowly becoming more humid wiith just a small risk of a few isolated heavy showers but many areas sunny but turning more hazy and smoggy the longer this hot spell lasts.

Edited July 7, 2013 by Frosty039

[DTHFCJ]

Again using my instinct I shall disagree.

 

The retreat of the anticyclone W will only be a shortlived affair and to be honest many parts will remain very warm except a brief cooler spell across E areas. Around mid July high pressure will again build across the UK but this time be centred to the E of the UK allowing a hotter S/SE,ly flow.

 

For me this current warm spell is only just a taster of whats to come and im fully expecting a heatwave from mid July to develop with temps in excess of 30C, this is especially true for the last week of July.

After reading some of your posts(couple of weeks prior to this wonderful spell SPELL of summer weather(a touch IMBY i admit but its widespread compared to the last 7 chocolate efforts) id say your instinct has been very good...and i like many hope your RIGHT,probably like many hope your wrong but hey ho cant please everyone!

Snowking posted an excellent explanation of these...

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/test8.gif

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/test8.gif

and they look good to me.....ECM better of the two?