Model Output Discussion 12z 30/06/13

[johnholmes]

The initialisation of the spell yes, the specifics during the spell : no, and potential breakdown : no - are all conjecture at the moment. Have updated my previous post so is a little clearer

I am mystified as to how you can criticise the 'specifics of the spell' when today is simply the start of what the model is predicting?

[Chris K]

snowmadchrisuk, on 05 Jul 2013 - 12:14, said:

To be fair , I think the models have handled this up coming spell quite well , with fairly accurate forecasts at least 5 days out ...

Yep I agree - Back on Monday it suggested this build of High pressure over the UK to last some time and has been generally consistent throughout the working week so far.

With regards to positioning inconsistency that some mention, it's obviously impossible to expect a model to pin point where exactly it will sit. With changes occuring constantly around the globe, these tiny tweaks can result in rather big differences for any region you look at.

Like others here, I've taken the view of waiting a few days at least before worrying about any 'breakdown' that may occur. It will obviously happen at some point, but being this far out, it's a bit difficult to see how exactly it might initiate and then know what will follow. So far i've seen options appearing such as low pressure swinging down from the NW, or another where the high pushes east potentially bringing up even warmer air from the South.

Until I see some consitency, I'm holding back on making any judgements. I'll leave that to the more pro posters here with better medium-long term signal knowledge

Enjoy what looks like to be at least a week of decent, settled, warm weather. I never expect day after day of uninterrupted crystal blue skies due to our location (although it does happen occasionally!!) - I'm just glad that (so far) we haven't seen a repeat of last years washout that many experienced.

Edited July 5, 2013 by Chris K

[NorthernRab]

Hi resolution gfs right at the end yet again suggests the eastward migration of the high next weekend. Heat seekers should watch the 13th July onwards with interest as there are signs from the operationals that high pressure might start to shift towards Scandinavia.

He's not criticising them, merely pointing out the potential for inaccuracies and the effect that these would have on any potential breakdown. His point is much the same as your own John, to wait until the reliable timeframe before calling any breakdown.

[Buzzit]

He's not criticising them, merely pointing out the potential for inaccuracies and the effect that these would have on any potential breakdown. His point is much the same as your own John, to wait until the reliable timeframe before calling any breakdown.

Thanks for the assist NorthernRab though I think you quoted from the wrong post ?

[Gustywind]

Think expectations need to be realistic in terms of the longer term trend for the 2nd half of the month onwards. This is Britain not Spain so we can't expect the current spell to go on and on.

What we so have for now and the next 7-10 days is pretty much the best summer weather I've seen since July 2006. A prolonged sunny high pressure dominated spell, with temps in the mid to upper 20s. Very very nice and hopefully not too humid and sticky at night also, which for me is the big negative with heatwaves in this country.

Enjoy!

[Captain Shortwave]

He's not criticising them, merely pointing out the potential for inaccuracies and the effect that these would have on any potential breakdown. His point is much the same as your own John, to wait until the reliable timeframe before calling any breakdown.

I've never been called John before 

The weather looks like a reliable Japanese car to be honest

[Frosty.]

An amazingly prolonged warm spell being shown on the Gfs 06z for the southern half of the uk with the southeast staying warmest and most settled for longest although this run shows heavy rain across the near continent which might flirt with the southeast eventually, and there is a lot of hot weather during the early part of the run and then it tends to be either warm or very warm for the rest of the time with some quite striking regional variations but generally rather cooler across the far north of scotland and down the east coast of the uk, lots of sunshine and only a minimal risk of a shower but then trending more generally unsettled across the northwest of the uk by mid month, most of any unsettled weather in FI on this run is across northern britain.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Who's been predicting a breakdown? I haven't seen anything that suggests a breakdown of the warm spell within the next 10 days...

[Frosty.]

Who's been predicting a breakdown? I haven't seen anything that suggests a breakdown of the warm spell within the next 10 days...

The only breakdown I can see is a breakdown in communication between some members on here, not you by the way.

 

The models look settled for at least the next 10 days as you say, and only the far north flirting with atlantic weather in the next 3 days then fine everywhere.

[NorthernRab]

Thanks for the assist NorthernRab though I think you quoted from the wrong post ?

 

 

I've never been called John before 

The weather looks like a reliable Japanese car to be honest

 

 

For shame 

[Downpour]

The only breakdown I can see is a breakdown in communication between some members on here, not you by the way.

 

The models look settled for at least the next 10 days as you say, and only the far north flirting with atlantic weather in the next 3 days then fine everywhere.

  

[snowmackem]

I know it is off-topic and I apologise mods, but there really isn't anywhere in particular to ask this. In fact, I have asked before but had no reply, I am starting to think that this is a big secret lol.

Can somebody please tell me what has happened to GP? From what I can tell, he hasn't posted on here since March? I am missing his Summer forecast and regular technical explanations.

Thanks in advance,

Karl

[Methuselah]

I know it is off-topic and I apologise mods, but there really isn't anywhere in particular to ask this. In fact, I have asked before but had no reply, I am starting to think that this is a big secret lol.

Can somebody please tell me what has happened to GP? From what I can tell, he hasn't posted on here since March? I am missing his Summer forecast and regular technical explanations.

Thanks in advance,

Karl

He's left for 'pastures new, Karl; I don't think his new employers would appreciate his posting on netweather. At least that's my understanding... 

[A.J]

for those who refuse to face facts that a breakdown is on the way, you really need to pay attention to the following charts as they show quite clearly that the warm spell is not going to last, and much colder weather is on the way with blizzards into the South West..............................................................................................in about 6 months time............

 

 

 

Carlsberg don't do model output porn......but if they did!................

[Harry]

for those who refuse to face facts that a breakdown is on the way, you really need to pay attention to the following charts as they show quite clearly that the warm spell is not going to last, and much colder weather is on the way with blizzards into the South West..............................................................................................in about 6 months time............

 

1.pbx.png2.pbx.png3.pbx.png

4.pbx.png5.pbx.png

 

 

Carlsberg don't do model output porn......but if they did!................

 

Lol how very droll

[snowmackem]

He's left for 'pastures new, Karl; I don't think his new employers would appreciate his posting on netweather. At least that's my understanding... 

Thanks Paul !

[Methuselah]

Thanks Paul !

You are welcome, Mick... 

[Tony27]

would it really be this cool in the east with these charts? the charts have the high back over us a bit more again this morning but why will it be that cool, surely low cloud won't hang around all day with pressure that high, sometimes GFS overcooks temps and other times it undercooks temps, we will have to wait and see i guess, anyway the 12z are coming out soon lets hope for another eastwards push of the high, it always happens in winter

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013070506/gfs-0-126.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013070506/gfs-0-150.png?6

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130705/06/132/ukmaxtemp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130705/06/156/ukmaxtemp.png

Edited July 5, 2013 by Tony27

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

would it really be this cool in the east with these charts? the charts have the high back over us a bit more again this morning but why will it be that cool, surely low cloud won't hang around all day with pressure that high, sometimes GFS overcooks temps and other times it undercooks temps, we will have to wait and see i guess, anyway the 12z are coming out soon lets hope for another eastwards push of the high, it always happens in winter

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013070506/gfs-0-126.png?6

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013070506/gfs-0-150.png?6

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130705/06/132/ukmaxtemp.png

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130705/06/156/ukmaxtemp.png

I dont believe them charts anymore one of them last week said 17c for here for today and it feels more like 22/23c here on east coast with a sea breeze aswell cracking day

[Chris K]

I dont believe them charts anymore one of them last week said 17c for here for today and it feels more like 22/23c here on east coast with a sea breeze aswell cracking day

Yea - I tend to stick with the Met Office temp forecasts rather than the GFS ones. Whilst not always perfect, the Met's ones tend to be spot on or very close for my area. I know some people have different views/experiences though. Edited July 5, 2013 by Chris K

[Frosty.]

I know it is off-topic and I apologise mods, but there really isn't anywhere in particular to ask this. In fact, I have asked before but had no reply, I am starting to think that this is a big secret lol.

Can somebody please tell me what has happened to GP? From what I can tell, he hasn't posted on here since March? I am missing his Summer forecast and regular technical explanations.

Thanks in advance,

Karl

I think it was something to do with his job, I think I can speak for everyone when I say his expert technical knowledge is sorely missed on here but we have snowking and a few others who are similar to GP's style, hope he does return.

[johnholmes]

latest ENSO into the winter from NOAA

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

re GP (Stewart)

he has a full time job in lrf work and this does not allow him to post his predictions into a free area such as Net Weather.

[Milhouse]

GFS has the warmth and settled weather persisting throughout the whole run. There are variations in where the best of the warmth will be located but it would be a completely dry run for many areas. Basically, high pressure drifting slightly north throughout the coming week before coming back south during the following week.

[A.J]

Phroar!, what a run on the GFS12z!......HP situated over the UK, migrating gradually westwards during the latter parts of the run and finally weakening allowing LP to encroach from the south initally and then a shortwave trough from the atlantic inferring a thundery breakdown out in the far reaches of FI at T372....obviously FI is subject to change, but the broad synopsis to my untrained eye looks to be a continuation of warm/hot weather for the bulk of the UK with occasional regional variances and then a thundery attack from the south and west in the far, far reaches of FI

[Summer Sun]

The 10 day precipitation outlook shows a very dry picture across England we'll see a lot of lawns turning brown over the next 10 days unless there kept watered