Model Output Discussion 12z 08/07/13

[Captain Shortwave]

Mother of all plumes at the end of the GFS run, Southern England is covered in 18C uppers!!!

 

Only 360 hours or so till verification 

 

A tad disappointing in high resolution, with the Azores high taking longer to build in, but I feel for now it's more an iffy run than anything else as the profile over the Atlantic just seems to stagnate

Edited July 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[NUT]

Mother of all plumes at the end of the GFS run, Southern England is covered in 18C uppers!!!

 

Only 360 hours or so till verification 

Was just looking at that 33 possibly   (of course it never never land so um................yeah)

[Captain Shortwave]

Was just looking at that 33 possibly   (of course it never never land so um................yeah)

If it verifies I will eat my sweat-drenched hat 

[Scorcher]

 

 

A tad disappointing in high resolution, with the Azores high taking longer to build in, but I feel for now it's more an iffy run than anything else as the profile over the Atlantic just seems to stagnate

 

Sometimes I wonder what the point of the GFS 06Z run is, it always seems to be a lot different to the other runs and is rarely accurate at all.

[johnholmes]

the statistics shown recently do not support that view

I am not sure if this is the correct site but I am sure someone can give the correct one if this is not the one?

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/gfs4cyc/

Edited July 11, 2013 by johnholmes

[Frosty.]

the statistics shown recently do not support that view

I think it just seems that way, I always remember what steve murr thinks of the 6z and indeed the gfs generally with it's eastward bias etc.

Edited July 11, 2013 by Frosty039

[Willsy]

hopefully the gfs is right. rather along time out to tell though. we'll all just have to wait and watch. bet on the next run it'll be totally different, it could be a trend to keep an eye on 

[Captain Shortwave]

The gfs is one baffling model, in one run the mean upper temps in some areas have dropped by 4-5 degrees. Especially in the north. The ridging is nowhere near as strong as previous runs. You do get these issues especially with the GFS where ensembles pretty much follow the op like sheep sometimes hence you can get big fluctuations even in mean outputs.

[rmc1987]

GFS come back when you are sober, close to 20c uppers?

[Backtrack]

GFS come back when you are sober, close to 20c uppers?

 

No thanks, I don't want to melt, mid-high twenties is fine by me

 

GFS 06z is still a good run, but introduces ridging much later than the 00z. Overall, still very happy with the output, and it's clear that much of England & Wales will remain settled for some time.

Edited July 11, 2013 by Backtrack

[Sky Full]

No rain here now for over a week, no rain in the models for the foreseeable future except the odd shower in the east if we are lucky - temperatures in the higher than average range in many parts - any bets when drought conditions will announced?

[Milhouse]

Once again its a very warm and dry picture being painted by all models for the forseeable future. The GFS 6z has temperatures in the high 20s for 7 days for southern England starting tomorrow. This warmth will spread north as well with Yorkshire likely to see the mid 20s for the next 7 days. However Scotland wont fair so well with a reduction in temperatures over recent values. The biggest winner looks to be eastern England which has been plagued by cool and cloudy conditions this week.

[johnholmes]

I think it just seems that way, I always remember what steve murr thinks of the 6z and indeed the gfs generally with it's eastward bias etc.

and Steve was not much more accurate statistics showed than the poster I made comment on.His views about model bias on certain runs does have some correctness about it but his writing off re the 06z last winter was OTT to be honest.Some justification for, whatever the cause, his comments about the European area being a bit different to the northern hemisphere.Our memories play tricks with us, we are all guilty, if that is the right word, of this. Hence my preference for 'real' data or statistics that show the reality

[Buzzit]

and Steve was not much more accurate statistics showed than the poster I made comment on.His views about model bias on certain runs does have some correctness about it but his writing off re the 06z last winter was OTT to be honest.Some justification for, whatever the cause, his comments about the European area being a bit different to the northern hemisphere.Our memories play tricks with us, we are all guilty, if that is the right word, of this. Hence my preference for 'real' data or statistics that show the reality

Having looked at the stats the 6z has performed very well amongst the GFS op runs when considering the last 30 days in total, but its recent form (last 7 days) is much less impressive in comparison. Without having the time to prove anything, my theory is that as it does have less initialisation data, it has a chance to get things right if other runs with more initialisation data make more of a certain feature than may be warranted (ie: it performed well with respect to the initialisation of high pressure over the UK) and, in any case, as we do not 100% understand all of the drivers of our weather, it always has the chance of being more correct at times. It is why I look at the 6z and 18z for confirmation of trend rather than specifics, especially as we cannot compare them to UKMO and ECMF at these times.

Edited July 11, 2013 by Buzzit

[alr1970]

GFS come back when you are sober, close to 20c uppers?

 

What were you saying when it was showing -17c uppers in the spring? I found those hard to believe, and yet they verified.

 

I know, it's way off in FI on the Manchester chart at least. But I've felt there's a parallel between these two situations: a sustained, significantly off-average period has been forecast several days in advance and it has come to pass.

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish - more heat, especially in the south..

 

[Barry12]

Latest from Michael Fish - more heat, especially in the south..

 

 

What's that got to do with the models?

 

 

 

joking of course

 

 

Back on topic..the GFS 12z is coming out...

 

Edited July 11, 2013 by Barry95

[mushymanrob]

ahhh.... im liking these charts IF subsequent ones support this general pattern. i believe both of these are suggesting high pressure. the ecm (left) suggests a weaker high but cruically its to our east. the gfs (right) goes for a much stronger high, but again hints at a more continental feed then atlantic.

 

they do need agreement of further runs, but IF this becomes reality we will get hot, very hot.

[Milhouse]

At least the next 5 days look dry and very warm for the bulk of England and Wales. Crucially we will lose the northeasterly so Yorkshire, East Midlands and East Anglia should be substantially warmer in the coming days although i suspect temperatures will continue to be supressed right on the coast, but that is not unusual.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO is superb

 

GFS is not so good, 

Edited July 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Methuselah]

Even in The Triangle!    

[Geordiesnow]

GFS is not too bad either alhough perhaps a chance of something thundery on Tuesday? Either way, it looks like the mostly dry theme should continue at least until Monday maybe even Tuesday although NW and Western Scotland and maybe Northern Ireland could be more prone to more cloud with maybe some light rain/drizzle on western coasts.

 

So its not all plain sailing but for Southern areas, it looks like the hot and dry theme may continue for some time yet and as Milhouse has reported, Eastern coasts should be a bit warmer although it looks like Saturday may see the onshore wind appearing again. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Another thing to note is that conditions would not be that warm on the GFS run, uppers after midweek are around 2-4C which is below average. Would be quite a chilly breeze in Eastern areas

 

Pleasantly warm in Western areas though still

Edited July 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

At least the next 5 days look dry and very warm for the bulk of England and Wales. Crucially we will lose the northeasterly so Yorkshire, East Midlands and East Anglia should be substantially warmer in the coming days although i suspect temperatures will continue to be supressed right on the coast, but that is not unusual.

what bout lincs will it be same old story cool n cloudy while everyone else has warm/hot days

[mushymanrob]

the 12z gfs is great if you like sunshine, clearer fresher air and lower but decent temps (20-25c) , although low cloud might be an issue for eastern areas.