Model Output Discussion 00z 19/07/13

[phil nw.]

This from MattHugo81's twitter feed, just for a little perspective..

"For those asking the unsettled conditions will persist. Quite high confidence an unsettled/cyclonic pattern will be sustained into Aug."

I believe this guy is a Meteorologist

Yes we know of Matt but let's keep to our own discussions and what we think shall we?

It would be much better if you added some of your own data to support your views rather than quoting others -that's what this thread is for.

Edited July 21, 2013 by phil nw.

[Weather Boy]

What does that have to do with the models?

 

ECM at 240 has pressure rising again

 

 

The answer to your question is absolutely de nada - same as usual!

 

However, personally I would treat suggestions of a pressure rise with extreme caution.  I do not watch every run, so I might be wrong to say that the idea has not been toyed with before, but certainly there has been no trend as yet to suggest a pressure rise - quite the contrary.  That said, pressure migrating to north of Scotland would leave the door open for the Azores high - somewhat displaced north as it is- to ridge.

 

At the moment I'm not aware of any support for the idea.  Whether support develops will be seen in due course.  In the reliable, it is certainly increasingly unsettled.  Logic would suggest that the west will be more unsettled than the east, but disturbances in the flow could give the east some nasty surprises in terms of storms.

[Steve C]

Well through the winter his tweets changed more often than the weather itself!

yes, unfortunately I've learned that he's not a person to take too much notice of. A bit like Daily Express headlines really.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Steve C

[phil nw.]

yes, unfortunately I've learned that he's not a person to take too much notice of. A bit like Daily Express headlines really.

To be fair Steve and others i believe he puts out a brief picture of the latest outputs for tweeting purposes and of course they will change to reflect the differences in subsequent runs.

As a trained Met man i am sure he puts more meat on the bones in other outlets.

Let's not unfairly comment on anyone least of all Matt who does pop into this site now and then,usually in Winter. and like any professional is always welcome i am sure.

Edited July 21, 2013 by phil nw.

[mushymanrob]

By Tuesday, we should hit 18 days at 28°C or more beating 1995’s record of 17 days and we would also be threatening 1976’s record of 22 days

proof that you can make statistics prove anything if you construe them in a certain way.no way on earth is this welcome heatwave comparable to 76 or 95 for as much of the country as did those years.plus both of those years started getting hot in may, june, and finish in august. at best IF this heatwave continued, which isnt expected, it could top 83and 91 .

[Steve C]

To be fair Steve and others i believe he puts out a brief picture of the latest outputs for tweeting purposes and of course they will change to reflect the differences in subsequent runs.

As a trained Met man i am sure he puts more meat on the bones in other outlets.

Let's not unfairly comment on anyone least of all Matt who does pop into this site now and then,usually in Winter. and like any professional is always welcome i am sure.

Fair enough. To be honest the weatheronline site does the same with its daily extended forecasts.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Steve C

[Captain Shortwave]

Slowly edging there, interestingly the GFS is showing a small thundery low tracking north Saturday night into Sunday morning

 

 

16C isotherm clips the Kent coastline and the 12C+ uppers last for longer during the weekend, small steps, but potentially in the right direction.

Also areas such as London are set to see temperatures of 27C at least throughout this week even after the thundery spell Tuesday/Wednesday

Run shows things turning fresher Sunday with westerly winds kicking in, though the pattern still looks pretty slack so it will feel pleasant enough.

 

Azores high nosing back into Europe, should be pretty warm and dry for the South, chance of rain  and showers further north. Not too bad really.

Edited July 21, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

What does that have to do with the models?

 

ECM at 240 has pressure rising again

 

as it was pointed out to me time and time over about a week ago, t240 is FI, and anything shown is subject to change? But of course, when its skewed towards your liking, its fine to suggest? Ahh okay

[bluearmy]

True but We are in a strange period where the day 10 500mb chart (if not outlandish) is probably going to verify just as well as the day 6!

[Mini tiger]

who will rid us of this troublesome stratus?its cold, dull and breezy again here

Already had thunderstorm pass over this morning with some very large spots of rain. Seems to be linked to a shallow trough moving NE and connected to a bigger storm moving along the northern coast of France.

[Mini tiger]

come on rob, that has to be the most OTT post since netweather started

Glad the storms cleared. With the 564 damn line here we should see 90oF under these clear skies

[Frosty.]

Glad the storms cleared. With the 564 damn line here we should see 90oF under these clear skies

Agreed, for anyone to call it cold on the hottest day of the year is frankly ridiculous, most of the southern half of the uk will be very hot and humid with temperatures of 30-31 celsius, and nearer 35 celsius 95 f in the southeast, but these very high temperatures will be the trigger for thunderstorms this afternoon and evenning, tomorrow looks very stormy, as does the midweek period across all areas.

[Man With Beard]

Looking ahead, it seems fairly likely an upper trough will cross the UK next Sunday/Monday, with winds backing west/south-west - this would eliminate the last of the hot air still lingering in the south east - any rainfall likely to be greater the further north you are. Reasonably sunny conditions follow behind (away from north west) with temps 20-25C for the early part of next week. Fine details obviously will change.

Edited July 22, 2013 by rjbw

[Frosty.]

Well, it's cold here, and damp, so I can only assume the same holds true for Wakefield, and I don't expect this cloud to start clearing until after midday, and I definitely do not expect 30C, let alone 32C, in this part of the world.

 

On a more relevant note - the weekend is actually looking quite hot and humid with temperatures on a widespread basis of 29C. What breakdown, again? Yesterday will probably be the coolest day for a while - and one of the coldest this month - for areas plagued by low cloud yesterday. Above-average all the way for the  bulk of England.

it's the word cold that is ridiculous, it's not cold!

[Frosty.]

Today is going to be the HOTTEST day of the year so far but also the beginning of a thundery breakdown which will intensify tomorrow and will last until later in the week, very hot, very humid and very thundery, widely in the high 20's to low 30's celsius and nearer mid 30's celsius for the southeast.

[Captain Shortwave]

With uppers around 16C in the South East it looks set to be the hottest day since 2006 

 

Even tomorrow has uppers as high as 17C so tomorrow could be hot again though probably not as hot due to more cloud cover and higher risk of thunderstorms.

 

Looking warm/very warm for the rest of the week.

I think it's unlikely that next weekend we will get another countrywide surge of heat, but the south still I feel has the potential to get close to 30C again

in fact the GFS this run has 29C for Saturday

 

Edited July 22, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Troubleatmill]

last nights ecm 12z are definately showing a more 'typical uk' otlook with low pressure to the northwest creating a northwest/southest split

 

[phil nw.]

Morning all.

 

I have cleared out some earlier posts as they were not on topic.

Please keep to model discussion in here-any general weather comments or reports should go in other threads.

 

The team just havent got time to keep moving ot posts so really please think before posting in here to save everyone disappointment and work.

 

Thanks everyone.

[Summer Sun]

Today is going to be the HOTTEST day of the year so far but also the beginning of a thundery breakdown which will intensify tomorrow and will last until later in the week, very hot, very humid and very thundery, widely in the high 20's to low 30's celsius and nearer mid 30's celsius for the southeast.

 

It might be the hottest day in the south but here in the north east its cloudy, dull and not all that warm TBH its best described as "fresh" so the humid air hasn't made it up here yet

 

The ensembles look about average this morning temperature wise once the over us currently departs

 

[Mini tiger]

There seems to be a veil of cirrostratus over parts or southern England. How's does this affect the cape values for today. Where can I find the cape values modelled for today and tomorrow ?

[Gordon Webb]

copied from the convective thread

 

TORRO CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK issued on Monday July 22 2013, 0800GMTMoisture and instability will increase across a fairly large part of the British Isles through today, with the best combination of this across parts of England and Wales. Diurnal heating today amongst little large scale lift should promote only isolated to well-scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across N Wales and N England. Weak shear means any storms today will be poorly organised, although isolated severe wind and hail is possible.Overnight, a trough will approach from the south-west, and moisture will continue to advect northwards. As lift from the approaching upper system overspreads the moisture plume, thunderstorms should become more numerous, especially across western and northern Britain, and then later, parts of central, southern, and eastern England. Organised multicells are possible with this activity, with isolated large hail and damaging winds possible.On Tuesday, the moisture axis will lie from Scotland down the eastern side of England. Numerous showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing to start the day within this zone, and will heavily modulate the further development of storms through the day. Scotland and N England seem like getting the most numerous storms - if activity could remain more isolated, supercells are possible. Further south, widely scattered thunderstorms may re-develop across eastern and south-eastern England, although with more marginal shear here, multicells seem the more likely mode.In both case, hail and wind are the potential severe weather threats. The overall tornado threat seems fairly low at the moment but conditions will continue to be monitored.As and when deemed necessary, severe weather discussions and/or watches may be issued.Forecaster: RPK.

[Gordon Webb]

Today is going to be the HOTTEST day of the year so far but also the beginning of a thundery breakdown which will intensify tomorrow and will last until later in the week, very hot, very humid and very thundery, widely in the high 20's to low 30's celsius and nearer mid 30's celsius for the southeast.

 

your image of precipitation forecast tomorrow at 1500 show more rain over the north and east than through central parts tomorrow and Torro says that tomorrow the moisture line will lie through Scotland down the eastern side of England what does mean for the midlands my area no rain or perhaps just less of the severe stuff

[Frosty.]

your image of precipitation forecast tomorrow at 1500 show more rain over the north and east than through central parts tomorrow and Torro says that tomorrow the moisture line will lie through Scotland down the eastern side of England what does mean for the midlands my area no rain or perhaps just less of the severe stuff

The trouble with storms is it's hard to pin down where they will form but one thing is for sure, there will be isolated and intense thunderstorms being triggered today with gusty winds, large hail and large amounts of rain in a very short space of time so anyone who gets one will know about it, there is a risk of localised flash flooding and severe lightening strikes, the heat and humidity will spread up across the whole of the uk, tonight will see more storms rumbling on and even more storms tomorrow and midweek.

[bluearmy]

last nights ecm 12z are definately showing a more 'typical uk' otlook with low pressure to the northwest creating a northwest/southest split

 

 

 

I am seeing the low anomolys becoming less significant as we head through week 2. the trough this week has corrected so far west that on todays naefs, kent never actually gets into 'blue territory'.  with anomolys next week now less notable, it leaves the direction of travel very uncertain. best bet would be to say changeable with the best of the weather in the se quarter though not exclusively so.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Well the latest GFS really minimize's the Storms for the SW , The main area seems to have shifted further North and East , which is surprising since we have had the most heat down here in terms of length throughout this heatwave . After this the Hottest uppers have shifted East , with 20 deg uppers on the Eastern side of the North Sea . (That should at least help sst's over that area . ) We then return to Sunshine and Showers with a brief return to hotter uppers next Weekend leading to the possibility of high 20's for a couple of days in a much more unstable airflow .