Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Robbie Garrett]

All up in the open. Key is the Jetstream.  Needs to move west or angle more better so it's a direct Southern England/SE England hit. 60 miles should do it, 3 days and 10/11 model runs before we can accurately see what's going on.  Looking at what the models predicted for the UK the other day, for it to happen mostly during the day here for it to all happen albeit a few isolated storms at Night on Monday says accuracy with these setups is low, very low. 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/23444069

 

 

Trying to predict where and MCS might form is like trying to predict the next car accident, it's extremely unpredictable. The positioning of the jetstream on tonight's run warrants me to think it may form just over Northern Spain/Bay of Biscay during the later afternoon, moving up in organisation with the jetstream to cross pretty much most of Southern/South Eastern England (incl London) and into East Anglia...

 

 

If the MCS does form on the right exit of that strong jet, it will likely have not enough organisation and I can see the Channel killing it. 

 

 

 

WRF NMM shows some storms forming in the later stage in the highlighted area, will these get organised though at the edge of the jetstream's right exit? I don't think so, need that jet to do option B and for these storms to be right in the middle of the jet getting plenty of organisation before they head north/NNE towards the UK.

 

 

[nitro_deluxe]

I may have just heard a low growl outside - thunder or the neigbours dog has slipped his chain again....

LOL that made me LOL! Good luck later, seems you're fairly well placed for a few deep rumbles :)Samosas! Really jealous now hehe.. Edited July 24, 2013 by triple_x1

[Grazy2266]

Thought there's two options, 1 - SE and EA  2 - Central southern/Midlands ??

Option 3 - of a clipper was not mentioned. A - either be over the SE full on or B - further west.

 

At the moment i would go for just the southeast getting any thundery weather on Saturday, The forecast wants to keep it all east. Time will tell over the next few days but looking at all the conditions on Saturday night i would, at the moment go for rain in the Home Counties, London, East Anglia thunder more confined to the southeast, but stress early days!!!!!

[jello]

Nice cell developing in Southern Ireland.  Im currently in Swords near dublin airport.  We have thunder & lightning and hail

[Chris.R]

Some closer sferics heard now, will try to get a fix on then in a minute.

[nitro_deluxe]

Nice cell developing in Southern Ireland. Im currently in Swords near dublin airport. We have thunder & lightning and hail

Love the place names down there..Tallow, Youghal, Fermoy. All pretty close to some active looking storms now. Bit further south mind .. Cork way? Edited July 24, 2013 by triple_x1

[Staffordshire]

Hey guys, quick question... anyone got a lightening strike map from storms earlier this week and the one from june 28th 2012 so i can compare please?

[Chris.R]

Well those sferics seem to be from a thundery area just off the west of Anglesey. Having progressively heavier pre frontal showers here. Just heard an even closer sferic.

[rich1974]

Thought there's two options, 1 - SE and EA  2 - Central southern/Midlands ??Option 3 - of a clipper was not mentioned. A - either be over the SE full on or B - further west.

I wouldn't take any notice of anything the weather men have to say weather wise, and please people don't get your hopes up, a lot of people were expecting big storms in my area and we didn't even get any rain, ok a lot of storms kicked of but in areas it was going to happen it didn't, I've lost all trust in Weather forecasts, if they report 30cm of snow it means a dusting, if they report 100mph winds it means 50mph winds, weather men stop this cry wolfing, joe public are starting to loose all trust in you and when something big really happen you won't be believed and someone will get hurt.Right rant over, please don't rip me to bits now.

[Grazy2266]

Hey guys, quick question... anyone got a lightening strike map from storms earlier this week and the one from june 28th 2012 so i can compare please?

 

Here we go,

 

28th June 2012

 

 

23 July 2013

 

[tara303]

LOL that made me LOL!

Good luck later, seems you're fairly well placed for a few deep rumbles

Samosas! Really jealous now hehe..

 

 

I not joking - whever I cook up lamb or chicken, she slips her leash and I will find her out there... just sitting, looking... She is a fairly sizeable Rottweiler. Soft as butter though - It's the mastiff chained up in his barn you need to worry about lol!  When we met, he told us we could shortcut over his field any time - so long as we could  do it in 9 seconds, since the dogs take 10...

 

Here's hoping we get a good show tonight = hang on, lights are after flickering!

 

Now can you imagine what I miss most about living in the suburbs of London - Not shopping, boundless frequent public transport, courtesy on the roads, suitably dressed fellow members of public.... No. What I miss the mostest is those tasty oily little samosas available in any newsagents/mini-mart/garage within a 5 minute walk of home.

[Convective]

Well those sferics seem to be from a thundery area just off the west of Anglesey. Having progressively heavier pre frontal showers here. Just heard an even closer sferic.

 

You picking up others than the ones on the ATD detector??

[Staffordshire]

Here we go,

28th June 2012

28-06-12.jpg

23 July 2013

23-07-13.png

cheers mate, omg look how unlucky they were just north of Witney Edited July 24, 2013 by Staffordshire

[Grazy2266]

Looks like I may finally get a drop of rain in Aylesbury Bucks tonight, we haven't had a drop all week. I got stuck between the storms earlier in the week, so it's welcomed here lol

[Chris.R]

Not sure, but there is quite a few closer strikes, say with in 100 miles.

[weatherobsuk]

Some cells popping up in the irish Sea offshore Liverpool & Blackpool, nothing seen/heard here and to be honest i'm not expecting anything anyway until at least later on this afternoon once the front clears.

[nitro_deluxe]

I'll have a drop in Aylesbury ole chap..mines a Guinness lol. Need another storm though, been a good 36hrs now. Nice it was too! Glad others are getting their fix - know how you feel.

Looks like I may finally get a drop of rain in Aylesbury Bucks tonight, we haven't had a drop all week. I got stuck between the storms earlier in the week, so it's welcomed here lol

[Chris.R]

a very heavy shower now.

[Chris.R]

a very heavy shower now.

[Convective]

First precipitation here now. Got that summery, stormy, damp smell in the air too...

[Chris.R]

a very heavy shower now.

Sorry don't know why I keep posting more than once. Anyway it's shower after shower here getting heavier and heavier.

a very heavy shower now.

[carl1980]

Started raining here,very still outside warm and sticky

[Chris.R]

Wow maseve sferivpc then, no thunder though but sounded close enough! An

d another!

[carl1980]

Heavy rain now,bit of a breeze aswell

[jam2010]

Is any of that's rain thunder storms?