Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Darren Bown]

I think the greatest chance of storms from the next 24 hours will be after this band moved through, with all that moisture already fallen in humid conditions, things could go 'bang' with convective showers in the afternoon.

[The PIT]

Nothing here other than light rain, hopefully that rain off the coast gets abit more electrified!

 

Im in Cadgwith, Cornwall

Blimey last nights flop has made you move house!!!!!!!!

[Robbie Garrett]

MetOffice have a severe weather warning out for Saturday evening/Sunday morning and I'm not surprised, even this far out..

 

An area of heavy showers and thunderstorms developing over France during Saturday may move northwards to affect at least parts of eastern and southeastern England later on Saturday or early on Sunday. There is a chance that these showers and thunderstorms may also affect parts of southern and central England, but at this stage this aspect of the forecast is subject to a greater degree of uncertainty.  

 

Massive MCS moving north and forming in France on Saturday according to the High-res GFS. I personally think the location/direction is wrong. I suspect it will be further west and take a direct hit of SE as per what the MetOffice say and not just brushing it. 

 

Something to be wary of and keep an eye on...

 

 

[sparky1972]

do i go to cirencester on friday for the out-laws wedding anniversary on saturday or do i stay here in sth lincs for the potential storms that might happen on saturday/sunday

[ChezWeather]

Blimey last nights flop has made you move house!!!!!!!!

 

Haha i wish mate! Been here all week so i missed last nights flop by a long way! 

[Convective]

do i go to cirencester on friday for the out-laws wedding anniversary on saturday or do i stay here in sth lincs for the potential storms that might happen on saturday/sunday

 

Second option. No question. 

[MrNooo]

do i go to cirencester on friday for the out-laws wedding anniversary on saturday or do i stay here in sth lincs for the potential storms that might happen on saturday/sunday

I can stand in for you!!! Only 5 mins from Ciren, free booze and food I take it?

[sparky1972]

I can stand in for you!!! Only 5 mins from Ciren, free booze and food I take it?

yep and plenty of it i hope, lol

[Harry]

MetOffice have a severe weather warning out for Saturday evening/Sunday morning and I'm not surprised, even this far out..

 

 

Massive MCS moving north and forming in France on Saturday according to the High-res GFS. I personally think the location/direction is wrong. I suspect it will be further west and take a direct hit of SE as per what the MetOffice say and not just brushing it. 

 

Something to be wary of and keep an eye on...

 

 

Despite model confidence I personally think there's a lot being said on this thundery potential.

MetO issued early watches and BBC have a Schafernaker special on their website.....interesting next few days I suspect!!

[Stuart]

Synopsis:

Upper trough will swing northeastwards across Britain around a large upper low anchored to the west of Ireland. Consequently, some cooling aloft will steepen lapse rates slightly, allowing a day of widespread convective showers. At the surface, a front will migrate northeastwards through the morning hours, becoming slow-moving across central/northern Scotland during the afternoon.

 

Discussion:

Behind the surface front, increasing amounts of insolation will allow near 900-1000 J/kg CAPE to build. Slight cooling aloft as an upper trough swings northeastwards will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop, particularly across northern Britain, especially where orographic forcing and low-level convergence can be utilised. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across Wales/Midlands/East Anglia during the midday/early afternoon hours, but increasing weak ridging will cause the main focus for showers and thunderstorms to shift northwards with time.

Initially DLS is rather weak, but as a southerly jet migrates northeastwards across England and Wales, placing the left exit over NE England and S/SE Scotland during the late afternoon and evening hours, DLS will increase to 20-30kts and hence an increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected over these areas later in the day, with any showers/storms drifting northwards through the evening. In any stronger storms, hail up to 2.0cm in diameter is possible, else severe weather should be limited. Main concern is slow clearance of earlier frontal rain/cloud may inhibit insolation and surface temperatures somewhat.

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/259

[Barry12]

Thought some of you might like this

 

[staplehurst]

Despite model confidence I personally think there's a lot being said on this thundery potential.

MetO issued early watches and BBC have a Schafernaker special on their website.....interesting next few days I suspect!!

 

Something tells me this will be a Kent clipper... 

[Robbie Garrett]

I suspect the fact it's there is good news, but something very interesting to keep an eye on with this one. Potential to be one of those classic 1990s era MCS storms. Those ones that never happen really for the UK anymore. Full blown Monsters!!  

 

We need to keep an eye on it, as positioning is literally perfect for it to hit the highest populated part of the UK

 

 

Despite model confidence I personally think there's a lot being said on this thundery potential.

MetO issued early watches and BBC have a Schafernaker special on their website.....interesting next few days I suspect!!

 

 

Something tells me this will be a Kent clipper... 

[marksp]

Haha i wish mate! Been here all week so i missed last nights flop by a long way! 

 

well you missed a lot of action up here, BUT whats it like there at moment, looks horrendous on the radar, I have family and friends pitching a tent this evening in St Ives, on the radar it looks like monsoon weather

 

ha ha.

[ChezWeather]

well you missed a lot of action up here, BUT whats it like there at moment, looks horrendous on the radar, I have family and friends pitching a tent this evening in St Ives, on the radar it looks like monsoon weather

 

ha ha.

Fairly heavy rain right now, things looking decent for tomorrow and friday though 

[marksp]

Fairly heavy rain right now, things looking decent for tomorrow and friday though 

 

Oh well, there down there for 2 weeks, I,m off to York for a few days, looks like could miss storms here tomorrow.

 

(Matlock)

[JK1]

I really hope my area doesn't miss out on saturday if it happens, think I deserve a thunderstorm after all these false hopes

[Cloud 10]

well you missed a lot of action up here, BUT whats it like there at moment, looks horrendous on the radar, I have family and friends pitching a tent this evening in St Ives, on the radar it looks like monsoon weather

 

ha ha.

 

 

Looks pretty rough down there this evening. 

 

[ChezWeather]

Torrential rain here now! and Sky TV has gone off!

 

(Cadgwith Cornwall) 

[Eskimo]

Looks pretty rough down there this evening. 

 

Category 5 and that bloke is still walking as if nothing was going on!

[LincolnSnowstorm]

do i go to cirencester on friday for the out-laws wedding anniversary on saturday or do i stay here in sth lincs for the potential storms that might happen on saturday/sunday

Best go sparky, keep out of harms way  

[Darren Bown]

Best go sparky, keep out of harms way  

Is that from the famous (or infamous) El Brumo?

[legritter]

reports coming in of v hvy rain in central cornwall ,and truckers reporting severall flashes of lightning .just had 1 min of very hvy rain here on mendip ahead of main area of activity although on radar it looks to be tracking more east now as apposed to an hour ago .its going to be hard predicting  sat/sun event but ingredients are there i would like to see it generally track a bit further west to give more posters a shot ,not because of IMBY as i had the cream mon night but to give others some action .there could also be other shots next week so plenty to look forward too .

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Torrential rain here now! and Sky TV has gone off! (Cadgwith Cornwall)

I was just looking at the radar and have to admit it looks very ferocious , and it looks much further south than the graphics on the bbc ,and very very heavy , any thunder in this band tonight ?

[LincolnSnowstorm]

Is that from the famous (or infamous) El Brumo?

No El Brumo was a lot stronger, El Sleafordo was not https://twitter.com/Hudsonweather/status/218381521583747074