Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 23rd July 2013 onwards

[Tim B]

That sky looks anything but stable now, I can see mammatus clouds underneath it.

[NUT]

I'm surprised about seemingly the lack of reports from ireland this week as it looks as if they have had a lot of rain/showers/storms at times

[Tim B]

Strike on that cell to the east of me, I know because I heard it.

[Chris.R]

Didn't hear any sferic. Maybe I wasn't listening when it happened.

[Chris.R]

Didn't hear any sferic. Maybe I wasn't listening when it happened.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Convergence quite obviously occurring now across N Cheshire as that Chester cell has moved W-E in the last frame as opposed to NNE. It's also intensified.

[Chris.R]

Any hope for me?

[Tim B]

Darwen cell as it passed by just now.

 

 

 

 

 

[weatherobsuk]

Wow that was quite neat, Undulatus Asperatus forming down the top end of the Goyt Valley for a time north of Buxton and I managed to get some snaps.

[Chris.R]

aparantly we're getting a heavy train overnight lol. Latest met office NW text forecast.

Need a red warning for that lol.

[Chris.R]

Need a red warning for that lol.

[alr1970]

Getting very dark in Trafford Park, no rain yet or anything. I keep hearing rumbles but that's just container trucks trundling past the office.

[Kato]

lots of cumulus clouds building now near me in Stockon / yarm and they are seemingly huge, what do you look for for good signs ?

[alr1970]

Just started raining, big drops. Very uniform grey sky to my SE.

[Chris.R]

Heavy shower here now, getting heavier.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep cloud tops gaining more height now. As for me I'm entering a clear slot.......as ever, nowt happening here lol.

[Chris.R]

Now clearing away. That was fun.

Still no sferics anywhere yet, but it may be only a matter of time

[Supacell]

Sferic near to Loftus on NE coast with a heavy cell gone up there.

 

I am seeing potential tonight. It is a low risk but I would say Wales probably best placed for something convective /embedded thunderstorms occurring in that band of rain due to arrive later on. Maybe more pockets of convection and the odd flash/bang around NW England too after midnight.

 

Here are the charts for 3am.

 

Decent ELT's 

 

Thompson Index & Convective precipitation

 

Parcel layer depth

 

MUCAPE

Edited July 24, 2013 by Supacell

[jam2010]

Very very dark her in Salford queys :-) fingers crossed

[Tim B]

North west is the area to watch over the next few hours it seems, these showers could well develop in to something.

[Kato]

Sferic near to Loftus on NE coast with a heavy cell gone up there.

 

I am seeing potential tonight. It is a low risk but I would say Wales probably best placed for something convective /embedded thunderstorms occurring in that band of rain due to arrive later on. Maybe more pockets of convection and the odd flash/bang around NW England too after midnight.

This must be what i can see out my window, it looks huge.

[Supacell]

This must be what i can see out my window, it looks huge.

 

Its very isolated but spitting out a good few sferics. I imagine from a distance you can see quite a clear anvil (if its not too cloudy that is).

[cheese]

Quite dark skies to my SW. Wouldn't be the first time we get something of note on the day when most other places are quiet, while we get nothing on very active days.

[weatherobsuk]

Very little surface convection going on here in terms of vertical ascention, its mostly mid-level developments hitting a cap and spreading outwards with only one or two areas showing anything getting through the now-placed stability above 850hpa. Places further to the north and east have a better chance of seeing anything from today as the PVA-Lobe is still in situ within these areas.

[Kato]

Its very isolated but spitting out a good few sferics. I imagine from a distance you can see quite a clear anvil (if its not too cloudy that is).

 

Yes it is very clear, theres a lot of cumulus towers going up over to the west north west