South West & Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 28/08/13 00z ------------------>

[Ashme]

Does anyone use Metox? They seem to say the rain is actually going to, quite literary circle around Somerset, fingers crossed it'll miss as I got plenty to be doing outside over the wknd

[Guest William Grimsley]

Does anyone use Metox? They seem to say the rain is actually going to, quite literary circle around Somerset, fingers crossed it'll miss as I got plenty to be doing outside over the wknd

Yes I do. Yeah hopefully we'll get lots of rain or showers/thundery showers over the weekend.

[Mapantz]

The progged rainfall is going to be causing some headaches i expect, and that yellow early warning is likely to shift, at a guess, possibly slightly further East and perhaps extended Northwards. Between Friday and Monday, the GFS progs some strong PVA in many areas across England and Wales as well as some vortmax lobes floating about, this will generate some pretty hefty totals of rain when the fronts engage with it.

The NAE shows quite a narrow intense line stretching up from the channel early on Friday, covering Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire, other parts of Central Southern England and then extending North East through the Midlands in to the North East England. I'm not really a fan of the NAE to be fair, so we'll have to get down to perhaps T+15/18hrs before it gets nailed (unless you have access to MOGREPS of course )

 

I reckon they'll be more yellow's issued either tomorrow or Friday, for Sunday and Monday too.

[AWD]

Tomorrow's forecast map;

Another sunny day for many but increasing cloud in the west later on.

The area in red, which includes Cornwall and parts of Devon will see increasing cloudcover in association with a weakening cold front as the day progresses, with the possibility of the odd spot of light rain or drizzle in the late afternoon breaking out.

Elsewhere, for much of Southern and Central parts of the region, for most of the day it should be another sunny day after any early fog clears. High cloud may start to infritate later on in the day.

Temperatures again should be very warm for central southern counties with the mid to high twenties possible. Low twenties for the West Country and high teens for Devon & Cornwall.

[Andy Bown]

Beautiful last day of 'summer'!

There is still 1 summery day to go in this current spell !

[Bumpkin]

I feel like I'm clinging onto the sunny warm weather by my finger-tips.  Just adored this summer, don't want it to end.

[egret]

I feel like I'm playing roulette. We have an open top car which has to go for MoT on Saturday morning just to the East of the area currently shaded yellow by MetOffice. It is also the Dorchester Show this weekend.

Can we be lucky, just this once?

[lfcdude]

I feel like I'm playing roulette. We have an open top car which has to go for MoT on Saturday morning just to the East of the area currently shaded yellow by MetOffice. It is also the Dorchester Show this weekend.

Can we be lucky, just this once?

 

 

No roof? Could be abit wet....

[Dorsetbred]

Another misty start (in fact thicker in some places than yesterday), meanwhile clear and good visibility out over the channel from Bournemouth.

[BARRY]

very misty and feeling damp at the moment

[Guest William Grimsley]

The progged rainfall is going to be causing some headaches i expect, and that yellow early warning is likely to shift, at a guess, possibly slightly further East and perhaps extended Northwards. Between Friday and Monday, the GFS progs some strong PVA in many areas across England and Wales as well as some vortmax lobes floating about, this will generate some pretty hefty totals of rain when the fronts engage with it.

The NAE shows quite a narrow intense line stretching up from the channel early on Friday, covering Dorset, Somerset, Wiltshire, other parts of Central Southern England and then extending North East through the Midlands in to the North East England. I'm not really a fan of the NAE to be fair, so we'll have to get down to perhaps T+15/18hrs before it gets nailed (unless you have access to MOGREPS of course )

 

I reckon they'll be more yellow's issued either tomorrow or Friday, for Sunday and Monday too.

The yellow warning is currently covering the whole of SW England, at the moment. So, I think everyone should see some rain this weekend.

Foggy here this morning. It's been like this here since 22:00 yesterday.

[Guest William Grimsley]

I really can't make my mind up on what this weekend will see. I was hoping for some rain and showers with thunder at first. Looks like we won't be seeing much more than a few showers this weekend, at the moment.

 

EDIT: Though, I have just seen the BBC Weather Forecast by Stav Danaos and it looks like being quite a wet start to tomorrow here. Then, being replaced by showers with some of them being heavy in the afternoon. Then, over the weekend it looks like mainly showery with some of then again being heavy.

Edited September 5, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Coast]

I really can't make my mind up on what this weekend will see. 

 

Have you got all of your Summer projects and revision sorted William??!! :lol: 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Have you got all of your Summer projects and revision sorted William??!!

Yeah you mean H/W? that's pretty much done!

[egret]

No roof? Could be abit wet....

Exactly my problem - 10 mile drive too so shall have to keep over 50mph to keep dry, even on the back roads!!!

 

Lovely morning here, bright sun, calm and fresh. This and May are my favourite times of year.

Edited September 5, 2013 by egret

[Guest William Grimsley]

Now, the sun is just breaking through the fog and I can see a lot of altostratus to the W, WSW and SW of here.

[dec10snow]

What are you all on about... Mist, fog!? :lol:

None of that here, clear, blue, sunny sky to start the morning off

[egret]

Just been out wih the dogs taken the dogs and 1/2 mile to our west it is distinctive line of grey misty cloud and gentle westerly breeze. The sun was starting to burn through this by the time I got back. Another glorious day ahead.

[MP-R]

Sunny start again with a line of altostratus and altocumulus out west. If it can hold off until later this afternoon that would be much appreciated.

 

As for the BBC 5-day for Bristol, the thunderstorm symbol has been introduced for tomorrow with a max of only 14C haha! I look forward to it. 

[Wynn D Woo]

Only one patch of slight foggyness on the commute this morning otherwise its been glorious sunshine all the way - only thing is Im stuck inside today!!

[Coast]

As for the BBC 5-day for Bristol, the thunderstorm symbol has been introduced for tomorrow with a max of only 14C haha! I look forward to it. 

 

GFS is on that thought too:

 

[AWD]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY As focus for heaviest rain closes-in on NW Eng/N Wales Fri-Sat, amounts in our region will prove highly variable: a tricky f'cast."

"W COUNTRY Irrespective of wet-dry nuances (of which there will be plenty!), Fri will nonetheless see markedly cooler conditions versus now"

"W COUNTRY Similarly, weekend remains firmly under influence of low pressure: rain/showers/breezy phases but also drier, brighter ones. Mixed"

Edited September 5, 2013 by AWD

[Mapantz]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY As focus for heaviest rain closes-in on NW Eng/N Wales Fri-Sat, amounts in our region will prove highly variable: a tricky f'cast."

"W COUNTRY Irrespective of wet-dry nuances (of which there will be plenty!), Fri will nonetheless see markedly cooler conditions versus now"

"W COUNTRY Similarly, weekend remains firmly under influence of low pressure: rain/showers/breezy phases but also drier, brighter ones. Mixed"

 

I thought the emphasis might shift slightly further North, i expect the warnings will be tinkered with today. It's one of those that if you are under the yellow warning, you may see 5mm of rainfall whereas others under it will see 25 or 35mm.  

 

Currently  and already 18.6C. Gonna be another cracker!

Edited September 5, 2013 by Mapantz

[Coast]

From Ian;

"W COUNTRY As focus for heaviest rain closes-in on NW Eng/N Wales Fri-Sat, amounts in our region will prove highly variable: a tricky f'cast."

 

I'm thinking tomorrow may be more for us than you guys generally in the region?

 

 

 

 

Unless you are on the South West Coast of course:

 

[Mapantz]

I've just had my morning peek at the models, it takes ages as i'm using a TV webkit.

 

It's gone from looking a  complete washout this weekend to actually being a mixed bag with some of us in the region probably getting hardly any rain at all, obviously much cooler though. It is looking bad across the N-Midlands/NW-England though, i suspect there will be a few flood reports coming in by Sunday..

It's bone dry here again, the lawn did green up a bit after some heavy showers but it's back to looking like a cricket pitch again. The soil is dry and dusty to around 6 or 7" down, while it needs some decent rain, i want to hang on to some good weather for as long as possible.