South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 11/10/13 ------------>

[Captain Shortwave]

Not been too bad here, light rain now but the sun was out for most of the morning

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

I guess he's talking about this bad boy,

 

slp_monday.gif

 

However, looking at GEFS, the pressure range is quite large implying that computing modelling is nowhere near got this one nailed on, this is a range of 969hPa to 1008hPa  which is quite a big difference,

 

Just about says it all!!

It certainly does, that pressure range 969 to 1008 is the difference between a very severe gale (over land ) and a gentle breeze

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

Not been too bad here, light rain now but the sun was out for most of the morning

Was like that (OK) until about 10:30, been raining off an on since.  Heavier batch on the radar looks to have your name on it. looks as though it will run East of me

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Where are they looking to issue that warning there is nothing on the radar???

 

 

 

 

Tomorrow morning yes... Bare maybe a kent clipper thing tonight...

[john pike]

why its still there the 06 fax

 

clearly shows the trough over the south east

 

enough unstable air in there

 

rainfall

 

thats the time i would feel would be when we could see some heavy rain and some gusty winds (thundery?)

 

this is the early morning runs

 

will update later on the new versions around 5-6pm when out

[Heisenberg]

RUN!!!

 

I know its only one ensemble, in one model, on one run, but still its a stonker to behold   

[Steve C]

RUN!!!

 

I know its only one ensemble, in one model, on one run, but still its a stonker to behold   gens-12-1-156.png

I like my autumn / winter storms, but that's way too much. It'd blow 1987 into the weeds! Luckily highly unlikely.

[Steve C]

This is from the main run. It'd be bad enough if it came off!

[Coast]

 Luckily highly unlikely.

 

GFS is toying with the idea though:

 

 

 

 

Gusts of 135 km/hr? (85mph) along coasts

 

[Coast]

Then run NMM through a sequence next Monday morning first thing and watch as the system first enters to the West, then exits through the North Sea:

 

 

[Steve C]

I can see it's being talked about a lot on the model thread.

Although the scenario is unlikely, especially being 6 days out, these things do happen occasionally, so sometimes (rarely) the downplaying doesn't come to fruition.

[Coast]

I can see it's being talked about a lot on the model thread.

 

Another good reason to hide in here then!! :lol: 

[VillagePlank]

About 1 in 20 chance of that low crossing and deepening as forecast by GFS. See my post previous page.

[Coast]

About 1 in 20 chance of that low crossing and deepening as forecast by GFS. See my post previous page.

 

NMM as well?

[tadpole]

I hope it doesn't happen next Monday. I've got to drive from London to Greatstone, collect old mum, drive back to Ashford hospital then take her home, then drive back to London. Don't want to be doing it in wind and/or heavy rain.

[john pike]

also the gem shows this

 

 

i am keeping an open mind on this until the fax charts come into view

 

lets say i would prefer this to be wrong

[Iceni]

I like my autumn / winter storms, but that's way too much. It'd blow 1987 into the weeds! Luckily highly unlikely.

 

 

 

I don't quite get it because in 1987 I lived in West Sussex about 20 miles from the coast and the Great Storm had quite a long sea track before it hit us like a sledgehammer. No electricity for 6 weeks and no water for 2 weeks (we lived on a hill and the pump was out of action).

 

But this one is coming from the W or NW, so how does it sustain its energy over the land? I thought deep depressions and hurricanes always abate when they lose their 'fuel' from the sea.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Iceni

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

This is from the main run. It'd be bad enough if it came off!

viewimage (10).png

That would be relatively benign for Scotland, but south of a line between the Bristol Channel and the Wash would be "Interesting", lots of trees still have their leaves on (but not for long if that verified).

 

Wonder what Lorenzo will do??????

[Iceni]

That would be relatively benign for Scotland, but south of a line between the Bristol Channel and the Wash would be "Interesting", lots of trees still have their leaves on (but not for long if that verified).

 

Wonder what Lorenzo will do??????

 

If he's sensible, he'll fill up his bath and lots of containers with drinking water beforehand. Buy a Tilley lamp and lots of reading matter - I got right through most of Charles Dickens in October 1987 as there was literally nothing else to do. And get up at dawn to get things done when there's enough daylight. It was exhausting!

 

Lots of our neighbours booked into hotels where they had power, but we stayed put as we had a solid fuel Aga and could cook and boil water.

Edited October 22, 2013 by Iceni

[Steve C]

 

I don't quite get it because in 1987 I lived in West Sussex about 20 miles from the coast and the Great Storm had quite a long sea track before it hit us like a sledgehammer. No electricity for 6 weeks and no water for 2 weeks (we lived on a hill and the pump was out of action).
 
But this one is coming from the W or NW, so how does it sustain its energy over the land? I thought deep depressions and hurricanes always abate when they lose their 'fuel' from the sea.

 

 

True hurricanes do, as they derive their fuel from warm (>26C or so) sea surfaces.

 

The mechanics of typical higher latitude depressions are different.

 

The Burns Day Storm of 1990 followed a similar track to that shown on the 'horror' perturbation, but wasn't so deep. The infamous storm of 1953 went on a track from north of Scotland and then south east down the North Sea.
 

Edited October 22, 2013 by Steve C

[john pike]

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

looking a tad lively in the channel

[Guest bjaykent]

I love GFS with all its free stats. but it does have a habit of overdoing these lows, I seem to recall something similar earlier this year where it continued to show a deep low crossing the south with high winds right up to 24 hrs and we ended up with a slight breeze in the channel.

 

Hope it's wrong, too many leaves on the trees for my liking and I would prefer my house insurance to stay roughly the same next year.

 

Think I am just going to ignore it for now.

, 

[Captain Shortwave]

No point worrying about it, these things usually pop up about 48 hours before the event happens, even at shorter notice sometimes. I'm sure the storm will disappear, reappear and the disappear again. If it does verify I expect it to either slam into France leaving us a bit wet or it will curve north eastwards and hit the usual Northern England/Scotland area.

[Steve C]

No point worrying about it, these things usually pop up about 48 hours before the event happens, even at shorter notice sometimes. I'm sure the storm will disappear, reappear and the disappear again. If it does verify I expect it to either slam into France leaving us a bit wet or it will curve north eastwards and hit the usual Northern England/Scotland area.

For sure there's no reason to panic this far out, but model watching will be interesting from now. I think very deep lows are very likely, just where they happen is the issue.

Interesting weather tonight too, especially on the South Coast. What are the odds on another small tornado or two in that locality?

Edited October 22, 2013 by Steve C

[Coast]

Interesting weather tonight too, especially on the South Coast. What are the odds on another small tornado or two in that locality?

 

Later into the early hours? possible I guess: