South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13

[Captain Shortwave]

CFS time, or Captain shortwave ruins everyones day with terrible Christmas charts

Precipitation - (+1) - rain at times but it heads north later in the run

Temperature - (+1) - Starts off average but then turns mild

Sigh

[john pike]

hi steve

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

 

that gives you all the runs and charts

 

as for stats

 

they all have faults in different ways after 144 hours

 

buy you can catch trends after that

 

use these ensembles as well

 

http://www.null/two/ensembles/

 

useful in winter when an east-north easterly is expected

[Lauren]

Regarding the pressure charts....

 

Does the pressure relate to a certain range of temperatures. Obviously the smaller the numbers the colder it is, but is there a rough guide as to say, what 450mb relates to temperature wise? And does certain pressure equal certain weather or do we have to consider dew points and stuff into that too? In which case what sort of pressure and dew points etc are we looking at for there to be snow?

 

Still trying to learn!

Edited November 13, 2013 by Lauren

[john pike]

hi captain

 

no worries mate

 

your bound to get a bank run soon

[Alpine glow]

Now that would be a RAMP and a dozen if that did come off. In fact, like you, I noticed it hasn't disappeared from a couple of recent runs, so..................

 

In only four days time, the Fax Charts would be picking such features up. I'm liking the different scenarios being played out right now and will reserve judgement on snow probabilities until at least Saturday or later.

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/350300/Typhoon-warning-Winter-weather-hell-as-killer-storm-heads-towards-BRITAIN-for-Christmas

 

 

A ramp like this?!!!!!

[Guest bjaykent]

Does anyone have a good overview web site that lists the different charts/models that get produced and where they base their data off/companied behind them/historical reliability/etc etc - I'm quite new to a lot of the weather forecasting and wouldn't mind doing some research.

Hi Steve, the learners section on Net Weather is very good, its where I started out (Link below)

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/forum/69-learners-area/

[john pike]

hi lauren

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/152

 

 

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/node/1777

 

 

and the be all of links

 

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/book/export/html/214

 

everything should be in that lot

 

see you next year

[Snowangel-MK]

 

 

 

[shotski]

hi captain

 

no worries mate

 

your bound to get a bank run soon

 

Hi John,

 

hows things ?

 

Its looking like we are going to be on the good side, if you like cold, of a mid Atlantic block.

Low pressur over Iberia is a massive boost for us in the Uk as it will help to prop up the

high to the north of us, JMA anomaly charts show a possible link up early December for a

Scandi/Greenie cross polar High.

[john pike]

hi shotski

 

hope your well

 

i am good thanks

 

that looks nice

 

fingers crossed, its about time we had a proper white christmas

[gottolovethisweather]

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/350300/Typhoon-warning-Winter-weather-hell-as-killer-storm-heads-towards-BRITAIN-for-Christmas

 

 

A ramp like this?!!!!!

 

That'd bring an Alpine glow to half of Western Europe at that rate.  These people behind the headlines, whether done for effect or not, they put the science of Meteorology to shame. In contrast some sci-fi films are seemingly becoming more accurate though, as the Climate Change years roll on but come on newspapers, get your act together.

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[shotski]

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/350300/Typhoon-warning-Winter-weather-hell-as-killer-storm-heads-towards-BRITAIN-for-Christmas

 

 

A ramp like this?!!!!!

 

There could be more to this than meets the eye, second biggest typhoon to hit that area was typhoon wanda in the year

1962, the rest was history.

[gottolovethisweather]

Hi John,

 

hows things ?

 

Its looking like we are going to be on the good side, if you like cold, of a mid Atlantic block.

Low pressur over Iberia is a massive boost for us in the Uk as it will help to prop up the

high to the north of us, JMA anomaly charts show a possible link up early December for a

Scandi/Greenie cross polar High.

 

A la 2010.   Sorry, but I must contain myself. RAMPETY RAMPETY RAMP I GO.

 

Happy Christmas, well the model outputs could be giving at least some of us early pressies this year, who would have thought it.

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[tinybill]

just  visited   the  model tread  never  know  them  to be  so  happy!!  i.e. with winter  coming  early  this year!!!

[john pike]

i am with holding my ramping for now

 

 

be back in 5 minutes

[john pike]

heres a ramp

 

 

 

i hope i got that right

[Guest bjaykent]

heres a ramp

 

 

 

i hope i got that right

Your ramp needs a revamp! How about no 19 bit of reverse flow in FI!

[gottolovethisweather]

heres a ramp

 

 

 

i hope i got that right

 

Sin binned for the rest of the evening JP. Be gone with you.

[john pike]

oop heres a proper one

 

 

 

thats better

 

sorry bjaykent

 

had  forgot what season it was for the minute

[gottolovethisweather]

Your ramp needs a revamp! How about no 19 bit of reverse flow in FI!

 

Don't worry, it has snow chance of verifying just like the rest of the twaddle we post.

 

Or does it?

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Guest bjaykent]

There could be more to this than meets the eye, second biggest typhoon to hit that area was typhoon wanda in the year

1962, the rest was history.

Hi Shotski, Typhoon Wanda was in September though, but I like your positive thinking and I certainly like your JMA anomaly chart!

[john pike]

heres no 19

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Attention John Pike, attention John Pike.

 

Croydon's forecast at t+14 days suggest the following.

 

16 Day extra Detail Forecast for Croydon

27/11-29/11
(V Light) Forecast 

 

Bugger it, I'm ignoring that silly prediction above and I'll go for the 19th/20th November to bring the first Autumn snow to the SE.

 

Off for a lie down now.

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[legrandefromage]

Should us normal people be getting excited yet?

[Wivenswold]

Not yet. It will get colder next week but how cold and for how long is still up in the air. Er....literally.