South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13

[Jax]

Don't worry, Surrey can flash the cash at the moment, but don't tell a soul about it ok?

I saw, secret is safe with me

[legrandefromage]

daily express headline of 4 inches of snow...

 

4

 

four

 

foooooooourrrr.

 

Rrrrrolll it rrround the tongue - four inches.

 

Nope! Not excited. Not bothered. Dont care.

 

 

During the late 90's working in Cambridge I always seem to remember a cold snap just before Christmas that would get everybody excited then it would be a balmy 13c by Christmas eve...

[gottolovethisweather]

Just posted this on the CSE & SW regional, I hope it is of use.

 

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As of the 14th November we have seemingly stopped the zonal Atlantic train, at least for now. Here's an example cocurtesy of the GFS 12z as to why that should be the case.

 

The current NH Jetstream profile.

 

 

The current NH synoptic profile.

 

 

 

Despite the H500s looking rather warm, actual Air Temperatures over the coming days will likely only reach double-digits Fahrenheit in the warmer urban heat island areas.

 

At t+72 (12pm 17th November) the HP cell out West is showing signs of weakening and slipping back towards the Azores, as shown by the following.

 

The NH synoptic profile.

 

 

And the NH Jetstream profile.

 

 

 

So by this time, most places within the region will remain dry and settled, albeit fairly cloudy.

 

By t+96 (12pm 18th November) the fun begins.

 

The NH Jetstream profile at t+96 hours.

 

 

And the NH synoptic profile at t+96 hours.

 

 

As can be witnessed, a predominantly Northwesterly flow has enveloped the UK, colder air will be seeping South and the Atlantic remains blocked bar the NW air flow. Up to this point in time, I have my extremely high confidence in my forecast. Thereafter into next week, my confidence lessens due to potential disturbances i.e. surface features popping up in the aforementioned flow.

 

If we dare go out to t+120 (12pm 19th November) these charts look stonkers for the time of year with something similar to an Omega block in development out in the Atlantic?

 

The NH Jetstream profile at t+120 hours.

 

 

The blues are invading from the North and have infiltrated us past the South Coast by t+120 hours.

 

The NH synoptic profile at t+120 hours.

 

 

Air Temperatures by this stage could struggle to reach 40 Fahrenheit (5c and above) in this region, plummeting by night as a consequence under clear skies.

 

I see no reason in attempting to produce a forecast any further out than this as at such a timescale there will likely be many surface features, fronts, occlusions etc. to contend with and the Fax Charts will best guidance in such situations.

 

All the best

 

gottolovethisweather

 

*FWIW it does at this stage that things will be predominantly dry (this will likely change) and the Atlantic won't get a look in until at least the final week of November.

 

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Team Jo]

Well I'm excited!

 

*runs off to get out sledge*

 

I got an AWESOME light up Sledge for Christmas last year, (From my Mum, who is a bit of a Legend, and doesn't think that Sledges are a silly present for anyone over 30) but couldn't use it because I slipped a disc, so I'll be darned if it keeps gathering dust this year.

 

In all seriousness though, I think that an early cold zing will hopefully set us in good stead for a bit of an earlier Wintry sesh compared to last season, where it snowed snizzle till April. And it was pretty naff snow too from what I recall.

[Jax]

Well I'm excited!

 

*runs off to get out sledge*

 

I got an AWESOME light up Sledge for Christmas last year, (From my Mum, who is a bit of a Legend, and doesn't think that Sledges are a silly present for anyone over 30) but couldn't use it because I slipped a disc, so I'll be darned if it keeps gathering dust this year.

 

In all seriousness though, I think that an early cold zing will hopefully set us in good stead for a bit of an earlier Wintry sesh compared to last season, where it snowed snizzle till April. And it was pretty naff snow too from what I recall.

Child

 

Regards last winter, it was cold and snow/ice down for weeks here, was a bleeding mare getting about and keeping warm, most expensive leccy bill for heating I have ever had last winter/spring.

[lottiekent]

Well I'm excited!  *runs off to get out sledge* I got an AWESOME light up Sledge for Christmas last year, (From my Mum, who is a bit of a Legend, and doesn't think that Sledges are a silly present for anyone over 30) but couldn't use it because I slipped a disc, so I'll be darned if it keeps gathering dust this year. In all seriousness though, I think that an early cold zing will hopefully set us in good stead for a bit of an earlier Wintry sesh compared to last season, where it snowed snizzle till April. And it was pretty naff snow too from what I recall.

Light up sledge? That sounds like the best thing ever! I'm wondering if I can convince my parents to get me one...also over 30 and don't see why the kids should get all the fun :DAn ok day here, wet ground this morning but that soon dried off in the wind and sun. Up to 10.4c earlier, now just under 8c.

[Methuselah]

Well, I, for one, am most certainly not looking forward to wind and sleety rain, next week! 

[Steve C]

Well, I, for one, am most certainly not looking forward to wind and sleety rain, next week! 

Yes, sleet is one of the worst weather types imho, unless it progresses. Raw cold, without the beauty.

[Flaked Queen]

Hmmm capital radio says snow on the way next week .....????? Before I get excited is it true

Also where do we get a light up sledge plz

[lottiekent]

Just had a scan through the model thread..as crackers as is always is when there's a sniff of snow on the wind

[SteveCoops]

Love it - I just decided to read this model thread everyone's on about   why does everyone get so stressed over something that hasn't happened 

 

If I was in charge of one of these runs I'd deliberately run a barmy one to mess with their heads

[Team Jo]

Hmmm capital radio says snow on the way next week .....????? Before I get excited is it true

Also where do we get a light up sledge plz

 

 

I think it came from Costco! It's Adult Sized as well....

[Flaked Queen]

Team jo .. Ty so much I do have 4 children but I'm afraid I will hog it

[Team Jo]

http://www.costco.co.uk/view/product/uk_catalog/cos_5,cos_5.8,cos_5.8.2/146296

 

Amazon sell them too - you can get two people on them.......

 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Team Jo

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening all, home now, been observing the wildlife in the model thread on the way home. A whole lot of moaning about nothing.

I feel like a ramp to the moon

Thanks GFS 

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

just looked  into fantasy  world looking as if  we  will have to get the  huskies  ready!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

CFS time

Not all bad

 

Precipitation - (-3) Bone dry

Temperature - (-1) Average but turning colder later.

[john pike]

Hi all

Be on soon

Heres my ramp

Seen worse :-)

Hi got to

Nice post

Hi captain

Thats closer that xmas chart :-)

[Methuselah]

http://www.costco.co.uk/view/product/uk_catalog/cos_5,cos_5.8,cos_5.8.2/146296

 

Amazon sell them too - you can get two people on them.......

 

When ah were a lud, we made do with heavy-duty dustbin bags...

[legrandefromage]

eeee, when I were small, we were shown pictures of bin bags an ad to meck doo wit that...

[Team Jo]

I used an old ironing board to sled with when I was a student.....

[Methuselah]

eeee, when I were small, we were shown pictures of bin bags an ad to meck doo wit that...

Eeh, yer spawny-eyed parrot-faced wazzock, ye are! Born in't shoe-box, ah were! 

[Methuselah]

I used an old ironing board to sled with when I was a student.....

I do hope you remembered to unplug the iron! 

[Captain Shortwave]

After my interview today I had a couple of spare hours before my train home so went to Covent Garden, found this festive thing.

Hopefully he will turn a shade of white soon 

Edited November 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=0&mode=0&carte=0

That should be my late night adult ramp

Think pub run here

If carlsberg did model runs (you know the rest). :-)