South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 04/11/13

[john pike]

Should us normal people be getting excited yet?

 

hi there

 

all for fun for the minute

 

expect colder next week but the fax charts will come into view with ukmo around friday-saturday

 

thats when ramp mode within the reliable becomes more serious

 

i will be more confident on this around saturday

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Should us normal people be getting excited yet?

 

Not normally the norm for us in a normal Autumn but then again, the climate has changed to a more abnormal global pattern in recent years.

 

Time for a break from me.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=rC0bSukFhrg

Edited November 13, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[john pike]

be back around 10-30 with fax update

 

and have a look at the quality street run

 

see you later

[Ice Day]

heres no 19

 

 

 

 

 

Evening John.  Now that is a chart stuffed full of potential........I know what new item has been added to my Christmas list!!!!

[SteveCoops]

First thanks for the cold forecasts, second for the links

 

A lot to learn in that learners bit of the site!

 

This is a good site - http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/

Edited November 13, 2013 by SteveCoops

[Captain Shortwave]

Before I forget.

First frost this morning!!!

[Floatylight]

Sniff sniff can I smell winter on the way.

Is it time to wake up from my summer/autumn hibernation yet???

One thing I would love to see again is a hore frost.

I Remeber how beutiful it was last winter

[blackprince]

All this Christmas ramping is starting to make me think my snow at Christmas bet might payout.I put it on after JP posted one of his forecast's showing a white Christmas a few months ago

The only thing good about sitting at work on my own on the 9th floor in Docklands for 12 hours on Christmas Day would be watching snow flakes falling,at least I would have got some of the money back that I have lost on White Christmas bets for the past few years since I started listening to JP and Rampkin to name a few...... Only joking

Knowing my luck it would blizzard late afternoon and snow me in!!! as it is I have to work Boxing Day so I could end up staying overnight with only a tin of Hero's for my Christmas dinner

Roll on Christmas....the sooner its over the better.... only saying it due to working it again...  No seriously hope everyone gets what they want for Christmas and I think I am safe in saying that the majority on here want some cold white stuff,which is just as well as the other half is getting a fridge freezer Another ramp please John

[john pike]

fax chart time

 

tonight

 

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

 

when the front clears

 

expect rain around and some heavy bursts

 

also the north west wind will kick in early morning and could get quite gusty

 

temps

 

where wet around 5 degrees

 

if staying dry a chance of some frost although i think that is a low risk

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

tomorrow

 

a gusty and cold north west wind

 

rainfall should clear all areas by lunchtime

 

temps

 

around 7-9 degrees

 

and cooling off quickly once the sun goes down

 

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thursday night

 

a northerly flow and slowly easing

 

temps

 

expect a frost again overnight and also fog likely

 

rainfall

 

there is a trough on the fax chart which looks to shave the east coast

 

if it does expect light rain and drizzle and fog could be an issue

 

also it would be frost free if the rain hits there

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday

 

a west to north east flow and could get quite breezy

 

temps

 

chilly still around 8-10 degrees

 

looks dry and maybe some sun

 

east coast may be cloud prone today

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

friday night

 

a weak westerly flow

 

high pressure so dry

 

temps

 

no frost and around 5-7 degrees

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

saturday

 

a weak westerly flow

 

temps

 

around 10-12 degrees

 

rainfall

 

going against ukmo here

 

looks dry everywhere at present but looks cloudy

 

early morning mist maybe an issue again

 

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be back when the rest of the fax charts update

[john pike]

gfs at 150

 

 

 

if you look very hard you can see something for us

 

just

 

hi bp

 

funnily enough i have never predicted a white xmas since i have been here

 

i have this year though

 

although disclaimer

 

all predictions by me after 144 are guesstimates

[Guest bjaykent]

All this Christmas ramping is starting to make me think my snow at Christmas bet might payout.I put it on after JP posted one of his forecast's showing a white Christmas a few months ago

The only thing good about sitting at work on my own on the 9th floor in Docklands for 12 hours on Christmas Day would be watching snow flakes falling,at least I would have got some of the money back that I have lost on White Christmas bets for the past few years since I started listening to JP and Rampkin to name a few...... Only joking

Knowing my luck it would blizzard late afternoon and snow me in!!! as it is I have to work Boxing Day so I could end up staying overnight with only a tin of Hero's for my Christmas dinner

Roll on Christmas....the sooner its over the better.... only saying it due to working it again...  No seriously hope everyone gets what they want for Christmas and I think I am safe in saying that the majority on here want some cold white stuff,which is just as well as the other half is getting a fridge freezer Another ramp please John

Hi Blackprince, here's a CFS ramp chart for New Year's Eve - chances of verification - virtually zero. This would cause panic

 

[john pike]

cor -1216 uppers on that third chart

[blackprince]

Hi Blackprince, here's a CFS ramp chart for New Year's Eve - chances of verification - virtually zero. This would cause panic p030bb.gif

 

cfs-1-1170nye.png cfs-0-1170nye.png cfs-2-1170nye.png

Oh thanks!!! bj   I am blooming working New Years eve night

[Crepuscular Ray]

So, what's the betting that it will actually be mild and drizzly throught the whole of late December/early January?

[john pike]

fax chart

 

weird

 

updated monday but not sunday

 

 

fax chart has shoved things slightly further south than the ecm run

 

 

which is quite good

 

rainfall

 

so would need to use the ecm at 1800 hrs to match

 

 

now look at the uppers

 

 

then next run

 

that should show colder air here monday night-tuesday morning

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

next one would be nice

 

ecm at 144

 

mmmmmmmmmm

 

bit of a difference there

 

all look cold but hard to pinpoint for now

 

more on this tomorrow night

Edited November 13, 2013 by john pike

[Jax]

Evening

 

Back from my walk to the next village, all is well, feeling milder and damper out but still retain my fleece anyway.

[Croydondazz]

fax chart

 

weird

 

updated monday but not sunday

 

 

fax chart has shoved things slightly further south than the ecm run

 

 

which is quite good

 

rainfall

 

so would need to use the ecm at 1800 hrs to match

 

 

now look at the uppers

 

 

then next run

 

that should show colder air here monday night-tuesday morning

 

ukmo at 144

 

 

next one would be nice

 

ecm at 144

 

mmmmmmmmmm

 

bit of a difference there

 

all look cold but hard to pinpoint for now

 

more on this tomorrow night

Thanks jp

[john pike]

 

 

[john pike]

 

gonna be fascinating to see where this goes tomorrow night

 

 

hi croydon

 

no worries mate

 

hope your well

 

john

[john pike]

ecm temps for london

 

that on the 20th looks

 

even the mean shows only 5 degree max from the 22nd onwards

 

the 21st onwards show some very cold ensembles

 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

 

wind

 

windy tomorrow as expected

 

other than that not much too see

 

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rainfall

 

picks up 17th-18th

 

notice that stray ensemble shoot through the roof on the 20th

 

that would be interesting

 

precipitation showing but not huge amounts though

[Mark Neal.]

A trend towards colder times looking a certain for next week. It's just the prolonging up for grabs now or will the pattern flat. Loving the ramp charts and fax analysis by mr pike!

[john pike]

hi mark

 

thanks mate

 

tomorrow nights fax and ukmo could be quite interesting

 

[stun12]

A bit late reporting in. 1.3c this morning, 12.3c in the bedroom, as I do insist in enjoying the duvet. Beautifully sunny day, but unfortunately couldn't take the dogs out as Jupiter has done something to his leg (vet has no idea) and isn't allowed to romp in the woods. Skye is also really miffed as she's fine - can't really take one without the other though.

 

No heating on yet, though using the woodburner like a sproggly frog (my own replacement there). Need the woods to be a tad less damp as we've already burnt 2 tons of wood this winter and I need to slice and dice a lot more. Saturday looks nice.

 

JP, the Robertsbridge (East Sussex) bonfire night (on Saturday) is traditionally plagued by a still night and high pressure, such that the bonfire and firework smoke sticks around and spoils the show a bit. The village is in a dip at the base of the weald. I see the fax charts keep the high, but possibly with some breeze? A clear night and some wind would be magical.

Edited November 13, 2013 by stun12

[john pike]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=316&y=151&run=18&runpara=0&type=3&ext=1

 

gfs short ensembles for london temps

 

remember we can reduce these further for outer london locations brrrrrrr

[john pike]

hi stun

 

what night is the bonfire on