South West/Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 06/11/13 0000z ------------>

[gottolovethisweather]

Further to SMs post which is well worth a read and additionally it was very well presented, I will simply add one ensemble chart and its from Helsinki, it comes courtesy of the GFS 0z run. Having heard Steve speak favourably about the 0z runs, more especially the other model suites (as we know) but I have what I have in my possession and I agree, look Northeast.   At this range, the key date for a potentially big game changer for our weather would be from the 12th December onwards. My thoughts are solely based around the GFS 0z run and certain other developments. Thereafter, I will make comparisons with my personal favourite the 12z GFS when I get the time, whilst obviously accounting for all other NWP outputs and hopefully determine a fixed trend.

 

So here goes, check out the Air Pressure trend for Helsinki  , we need this to firm up over the coming days around the timeframe aforementioned. Should things verify, the UKs weather could see a major turnaround in coldies fortunes by mid-December. A darn long way to go yet though.

 

GFS 00z 031213 Helsinki Air Pressure out to 19th December.png

 

I haven't taken my eye off the next few days but I'm not seeing much more than some brief flirting with some much colder air and maybe a snowflake in the air before it passes through by the weekend.

[fromey]

I'm getting my snow fix from watching the sking on British euro sport!!!

Back to looking at charts 10 days away again I see!!

Fromey

Just seen a good update from Ian F on the mod thread, all I will say is that it's a positive outlook at the moment, still along way off though!!

Edited December 3, 2013 by fromey

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm getting my snow fix from watching the sking on British euro sport!!!

Back to looking at charts 10 days away again I see!!

Fromey

 

 

I agree Fromey, always chasing FI BUT trends can often be nailed at such a range. My posts from the 24th November and every day thereafter nailed the period around the 3rd December as a date where we would start to witness a NW flow encroach the UK and a subsequent change in weather pattern. As if by magic (at t+216 hours range) the emerging NH pattern was spot-on. We all need to look away from the local and regional picture until <t+72 hours and think broad-scale i.e. a NH viewpoint for a period way out until FI and beyond. I have learnt to understand only in recent years and it is the only way to approach forecasting for our tiny speck of an island.

 

I hope the above doesn't sound patronising as that is most definitely NOT my intention, as it is a message to all.

Edited December 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Well grey and murky again, but I still prefer it to endless drizzle and rain.

 

Could somebody please explain to me where the "Snow Fields" are. it's often mentioned and I have no idea which area they are in? And just a little aside, are snow fields still snow fields even though they have no snow on for most of the year?   

[gottolovethisweather]

Well grey and murky again, but I still prefer it to endless drizzle and rain.

 

Could somebody please explain to me where the "Snow Fields" are. it's often mentioned and I have no idea which area they are in? And just a little aside, are snow fields still snow fields even though they have no snow on for most of the year?   

 

The snow fields are those as indicated in the Snow and Ice Thread, its just that they have a habit of only briefly visiting mine and your own area. i.e. think the Arctic region and vast parts of the Northern Hemisphere. *That's as I understand it*

[knocker]

The usual Sc cover here about 4,000ft. Temp 8C with a light SE.

 

Can't see anything drastic for the rest of the week. Might get a bit nippy Wednesday night with temps around 3C but rising to 9 or 10C during Thursday with a fresh westerly.

Edited December 3, 2013 by knocker

[Beast of Plympton]

I have a question, if anyone can help it would be great!

 

I have been looking at the NAE charts below....

 

 

 

Can anyone tell me why there appears to be snow all around the UK and not over it? There is a chance I am being really thick here, but I can't figure it out!!

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

I have a question, if anyone can help it would be great!

 

I have been looking at the NAE charts below....

 

NAE Chart 1.gif   NAE Chart 2.gif

 

Can anyone tell me why there appears to be snow all around the UK and not over it? There is a chance I am being really thick here, but I can't figure it out!!

 

You have somewhat confused me but I guess that it may well suggest streamer activity i.e not much penetration inland, (that sounds rude ). The other thing to note is the "elephant in the room" my HP cell, isn't forecast to release its grip on folk down towards the SW approaches. If this continues, Chios December prediction will be looking very tasty. Some positives in the outlook but those looking for snow will have to concentrate on Thursday night into Friday morning when the coldest UPPERS are over this region. Thereafter we should prepare ourselves for the search for more FI delights.

Edited December 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Beast of Plympton]

You have somewhat confused me but I guess that it may well suggest streamer activity i.e not much penetration inland, (that sounds rude ). The other thing to note is the "elephant in the room" my HP cell, isn't forecast to release its grip on folk down towards the SW approaches. If this continues, Chios December prediction will be looking very tasty. Some positives in the outlook but those looking for snow will have to concentrate on Thursday night into Friday morning when the coldest UPPERS are over this region. Thereafter we should prepare ourselves for the search for more FI delights.

 

Thanks GTLTW.... I was under the impression that the pink was snowfall and it just seems strange that the pink surrounds the UK but does not go over it.... Gettign a bit board of dull and cloud now!!

[Andy Bown]

I posted last Monday that it was a rare day with the ground bone dry in the morning due to no dew, frost or rain water. Well yesterday and today have been the same so that's 3 days out of 9 with no trace of moisture first thing in the morning.

[Nights King]

 

I posted last Monday that it was a rare day with the ground bone dry in the morning due to no dew, frost or rain water. Well yesterday and today have been the same so that's 3 days out of 9 with no trace of moisture first thing in the morning.

 

Good thing is if it does turn cold the ground is nice and dry and frosts will be harder as ground cools faster.

 

I did find it quit moist in the shower this morning

[Nights King]

Novembers rainfall...

 

 

 

 

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Novembers rainfall...

 

gurney.jpg

 

November's rainfall becomes January's snowfall.

Edited December 3, 2013 by gottolovethisweather
is that better?

[Nights King]

November's rainfall becomes January's snowfall.

 

haha that would be a dream if I toped league on that I do wonder where they got data for that though.

[Andy Bown]

haha that would be a dream if I toped league on that I do wonder where they got data for that though.

That's from Ian's Points West forecast last night. I guess a viewer from Gurney Slade has a rain gauge.

 

The majority of November's rain came in the first half of the month and it has now been dry for nearly a fortnight, with only a few probably quite weak cold fronts in the next few days the dry spells looks set to continue.

[Frosty_wsm]

Anyone else seen the post from IanF in the mod thread? If, & it's a big if, things play out how the meto currently think it will then there could be fun and games in our part of the country due to battle ground scenario(s) as we head further into December! Obviously the meto are also thinking, at the moment, that hp could develop to the north east further down the line.

[Nights King]

That's from Ian's Points West forecast last night. I guess a viewer from Gurney Slade has a rain gauge.

 

The majority of November's rain came in the first half of the month and it has now been dry for nearly a fortnight, with only a few probably quite weak cold fronts in the next few days the dry spells looks set to continue.

 

 

I would say it was mine but it isn't as mine is broken!  Snow broke it last year and I have not got round to buying a new one.

 

I thought maybe it was a high res model they have which calculates rainfall that is falling aprox as I can't imagine viewers give them those figures?

[ARTDEMOLE]

Another grey calm day. 4.9c. No thrills about this weather. .Wednesday night will be ok for the stars..

[Andy Bown]

I would say it was mine but it isn't as mine is broken!  Snow broke it last year and I have not got round to buying a new one.

 

I thought maybe it was a high res model they have which calculates rainfall that is falling aprox as I can't imagine viewers give them those figures?

They do, the Steeple Ashton (village near Trowbridge) readings are taken by a man who's been doing so for years. I have considered sending mine into him but would forget 3 months out of 4 lol !!

[gottolovethisweather]

Oh how apt.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/?p=2852620

 

See you all in mid-December.   Luckily in fluid situations such as our good earth's climate, things rarely remain the same for long but................... we're going to have to be mighty patient.

[jtay]

Would be happy just to see the old current bun.

Endless = a sad johnboy

[Beast of Plympton]

Getting very bored of this dull cloudy rubbish now! All I can see on met office is little clouds, all day and night for the next 5 days!

[Nights King]

Getting very bored of this dull cloudy rubbish now! All I can see on met office is little clouds, all day and night for the next 5 days!

 

You mean to say you just have little clouds!?

 

All I see is one large cloud day after day, wish I could have some 'little clouds'

[Beast of Plympton]

You mean to say you just have little clouds!?

 

All I see is one large cloud day after day, wish I could have some 'little clouds'

Haha! Yes, tiny little clouds! I want big clouds full of snow! I feel the time is near....

[Polar Bear]

I know we are now in December but this poem called November is just perfect for these dull overcast days..

No sun, no moon, no morn, no noon, no proper time of day.......

Hurry up high we all need a ray (or two) of sunshine in our lives!