South East & East Anglia Regional Weather Discussion 25/11/13

[Tamara]

By day 10 we are almost back to where we started

 

 

 

I think this typifies the pattern realistically and probably the best we can expect through December while the polar vortex is as strong as it is.  High pressure set to be quite a feature through December perhaps, making it drier than average, and temperatures kept seasonal this way even though upper cold from the arctic is unlikely beyond attempted amplified atlantic ridges like the coming week. All much in line with the excellently presented winter forecast produced yesterday which many on the MAD thread have not appeared to look at in the chase for immediate snow gratification

Edited November 28, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Tom Montalbano]

Should imagine its mayhem in the MOD thread at the moment, beware of false prophets!

Tom.

[Steve C]

I don't see what the huge excitement is about - this is set to be a toppling mid atlantic ridge and it will likely produce little wintry ppn down here anyway

 

The 12z ECM looks more realistic this evening that it did this morning (alas) The pattern is probably already set to flatten out by day 9/10.

 

It was all relatively restrained there. I've never thought that the upcoming northerly would be too big a deal (being careful not to write off what's not happened though)

[john pike]

ecm uppers

 

 

 

 

if we could get some precipitation around this time we may see something wintry but still fi

 

my thought are this

 

when the jet drops we are likely to see a storm come down from the north west travelling south east

 

similar lines to the control run but probably not as strong

 

the control runs ends up with the jet eventually to our south

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

thats when the fun will begin

 

all fi etc etc but lets see what happens

[Tamara]

It was all relatively restrained there. I've never thought that the upcoming northerly would be too big a deal (being careful not to write off what's not happened though)

Hi Steve - yes I agree with you of course . There is a chance that the northerly may yet produce more than suggested. But I still think it will be a temporary feature with High pressure either side of it

[john pike]

hi tam

 

all fi and if that jet shifts as i have seen plenty of times the high will stay west

 

also

 

i am not having a go here and this aint the mod thread

 

but we do not need the pv to get cold air

 

give me a decent feed from the east and i will be happy

[Tamara]

Hello John - well I would like you to be right, put it that way

 

Time for dinner...I have a craving for Chinese food this evening

[Summer of 76]

I see you're about Chris.If that 12z GFS is right, we could well be calling in the Pools Panel for the first part of December at least,in the Snow Depth Cup.Tom.

Hi Tom,

 

Yes was online at work before coming home and then being dragged out again to Sainsburys.

 

Ok I have fired up the ZX81 and the tape player is ready, re my PM which version of Excel do you have as that maybe the problem opening the link I sent you, sorry everyone.

 

On the weather front it's 8.7c outside although i must admit feels colder.

[john pike]

are we having chopsticks tam

 

you may be right as well by the way

 

either way its early in the winter and hopefully more prolonged cold will get here at the right time

Edited November 28, 2013 by john pike

[Steve C]

^^

Supercalc.

[john pike]

 

i think these are showing to be pony after the 6th

 

the spread shows 15 degree difference

 

ones things certain

 

one of the ensembles will be right

 

best bit near the end

 

the control run and the main run have a 20 degrees difference

hi steve

 

whats supercalc ?

[Summer of 76]

^^

Supercalc.

Great bit of software

[Captain Shortwave]

 

i think these are showing to be pony after the 6th

 

the spread shows 15 degree difference

 

ones things certain

 

one of the ensembles will be right

 

best bit near the end

 

the control run and the main run have a 20 degrees difference

hi steve

 

whats supercalc ?

Just means more madness in the mad thread

Should the model thread be renamed the house of fun, and should it only be entered whilst wearing baggy trousers 

[john pike]

hi captain

 

nice one

 

whos for a pub run special soon

[john pike]

http://qn.quotidiano.net/cronaca/2013/11/26/987962-maltempo-disagi-nevicate-sud.shtml

 

for tom and tam

 

in italian

[Jax]

Evening all

 

Dry and rather mild here still, have got the last two weeks of nag and dog to read, have been fed and watered (thanks mum and dad) and finally started to figure out some bits of this new phone, the important one was getting it working so I could make and receive calls.  It has been given a stress test (thanks to my 1YO neice) and the bleeding obvious test (that would be me and my father trying to make it do complicated stuff like make a phone call).

[Steve C]

Hi John,

As Chris has imtimated, SuperCalc is (was) software. A quite antiquated spreadsheet. It was in reference to his query about the version of Excel. I was actually hoping to respond straight away to him, but your post popped in between.

[Jax]

Hi John,

As Chris has imtimated, SuperCalc is (was) software. A quite antiquated spreadsheet. It was in reference to his query about the version of Excel. I was actually hoping to respond straight away to him, but your post popped in between.

I still hold a copy of it here somewhere, boxed, with disks and manuals.

[Jax]

I still hold a copy of it here somewhere, boxed, with disks and manuals.

Just a thought, I use Linux so open office for me too.

[john pike]

hi steve

 

no worries mate

 

sounds about the same age of my system here at present

[john pike]

 

 

nao negative or neutral as we go into december

 

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/nao.html

 

sun still quiet

 

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

 

i make that 1 day out of 10 which showed a small amount of activity and that was 6 days ago now

 

all above looks ok

 

now we wait

[Snowangel-MK]

Just found this photo on Facebook of the Buckinghamshire town I grew up in ....

...taken well before my time - the person who posted it thinks it was 1908 !

[john pike]

monday may see temps of around 12-13 degrees

 

thats my only warm ramp tonight

 

now to chase the cold ramp charts

[Mark Neal.]

Time to dig out the BBQ aye John? then dust off the sledges.... ( we may need them at some point in future)

[john pike]

hi mk

 

while your here can you do me a favour

 

i tried to do a longish post last night but the system kept saying

 

i used my max for images

 

could you find out if there is a max image per post as it took me ages

 

to do and could not post it

 

thanks

 

john

hi mark

 

think it could be something like that

 

hopefully more of the latter