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Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Snowfan50 Newbie

Snowfan50

Posted
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
  • Weather Preferences: Continental climate suits me very fine.
  • Location: North Devon, All of 6M ASL :/.
Posted

Of course cold air is always more likely to plunge into central europe rather than the Uk. Im not surprised at a shift eastwards of the high.

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

I've never seen such drama over a northerly, the models are all over the place. The differences in the upstream pattern at just 120hrs between the GFS and UKMO are laughable and at 144hrs just ridiculous.

 

At least the UKMO has some easterly potential at 144hrs, the GFS well if its right then its a poor outlook, if its wrong then well I just give up on this model as this is an embarrassment to NWP, the UKMO pushes things east but has largely the same upstream pattern as the 00hrs, the GFS well personally I think its progressive nature has really gone overboard here.

12z has probably been the most over progressive with the 2 chances we've had this year. 6z and 18z always showing the best outcomes. 0z always closest to the mark.

Well there's always FI.

 

Posted Image

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

And there we have the Scandi high....a robust looking one at that. Whatever happens earlier on the run, the GFS over the past few runs seems very keen on an eventual easterly scenario.

 

Posted Image

 

Further along we get some ridging towards Greenland. Prolonged blocked set up developing there

 

Posted Image

 

Considering the GFS seemingly has a zonal bias in FI, these trends are encouraging to say the least.

Edited by CreweCold
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Also going for a true Arctic high.

 

Things are settling up nicely for things later in the line seeing as the current snap I was never in for but an Easterly has my location all over it!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Not for the UK, the core of heights is going SSW.

lol

 

Posted Image

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

And there we have the Scandi high....a robust looking one at that. Whatever happens earlier on the run, the GFS over the past few runs seems very keen on an eventual easterly scenario.

 

Posted Image

.....until we get nearer to the time and it downgrades by 70% or more. 

 

The reliability of the models seems to be getting worse the past couple of years? Why is this, it's getting so disheartening to watch. Even when all the models agree at times, the whole lot collapses and dashes our hopes to the floor again.

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Zenarcher Seasoned

Zenarcher

Posted
Posted

Still plenty of uncertainty over this possible event the UKMO and GFS both take it in different ways.

 

I've put the GFS and UKMO at 72 hours and marked the area of difference on the GFS its starting up the low pressure,

 

post-6686-0-88208700-1385915945_thumb.pn

 

The low pressure at 96 hours on the GFS brings storm force winds over Scotland and cold temperatures across the UK with wintry weather as well,

 

post-6686-0-12542700-1385916056_thumb.pn

 

Looking though the data if the 00z ECM it shows something very similar to the GFS in fact the GFS 12z takes a step closer to it.

 

The GFS 12z and ECM 00z at 1am on the 5th both show the low about to deepen,

 

post-6686-0-45899800-1385916193_thumb.pn

 

Lastly the UKMO at 96 hours does not appear to form a low like the ECM and GFS,

 

post-6686-0-65543800-1385916269_thumb.gi

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

The Navgem says no to the Northerly for most of the UK as well:

T120: post-14819-0-26365900-1385916246_thumb.p T132: post-14819-0-60187200-1385916294_thumb.p

Trend is to kill the Northerly altogether.

The GFS run is horrible for cold from D6 till D15. Coldest the uppers get in that time frame is at the end of FI:

post-14819-0-96570800-1385916479_thumb.p

Edited by i'm dreaming of...
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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted

Not for the UK, the core of heights is going SSW.

The detail is totally irrelevant. Charts that far out are strictly about trends only. The trend in the last few runs is clearly towards blocking to our NE. Will it deliver? Frankly who knows at this point.The ensemble suite will be interesting tonight.
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)

Not an easterly, it's a battleground scenario.

Still didn't sink SSW

 

Plus that's a HLB with polar heights setting up, zonal is far from the outcome.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Jonan92 Enthusiast

Jonan92

Posted
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
  • Location: Basque Country - Northern Spain
Posted

Most of the models are showing a vortex placed over Canada. If that came true, the atlantic would be empowered and most of the cold would stay at the "wrong" side of NH

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

wow the gfs 12z looks stellar compared to ukmo..............someone needs to fix the pendulum quicklyPosted Image

post-4783-0-62351600-1385916378_thumb.gi

post-4783-0-70237100-1385916399_thumb.pn

post-4783-0-75761700-1385916431_thumb.pn

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

Steady on folks ,its early days yet still days away lets wait for Ecm and tonights Fax ,but i must admit things are all over the place with many options available ,im certainly not going to take anything for granted but interesting model watching all the same .Posted Image

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Not an easterly, it's a battleground scenario.

 

Yeah, the only thing that stands between you and your zonal prediction is an amplified S'ly jet and a large >1035mb HP Posted Image

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garbagebags Enthusiast

garbagebags

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
  • Location: Scottish Central Belt
Posted

Ive got a feeling this evenings ECM will be make or break. It will either push the high east (in which case i expect more downgrades from all the models in the days to come). Or it will hold fast. Meaning there is all to play for.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Steady on folks ,its early days yet still days away lets wait for Ecm and tonights Fax ,but i must admit things are all over the place with many options available ,im certainly not going to take anything for granted but interesting model watching all the same .Posted Image

I can think of a few words to describe things if the ukmo 12z verifies...expletive deletivePosted Image

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Well then now UKMO has shifted the northerly east I wonder what the met offices thought's on this will be

 

 

Posted ImagePosted Image

 

All down to ECM now if it also back tracks then a new trend may have been found by the models this afternoon

Edited by Summer Sun
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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

The back end of the 12z send plus 0'c 850s over Greenland and Northern Canada, that means they'd get freezing rain, but RAIN in Greenland in December??!! wtf?  One for the bins I hope!

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Mr_Pessimistic Contributor

Mr_Pessimistic

Posted
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
  • Location: Diss, South Norfolk
Posted

The Navgem says no to the Northerly for most of the UK as well:

T120: Posted Imagenavgem-0-120.png T132: Posted Imagenavgem-0-132.png

Trend is to kill the Northerly altogether.

The GFS run is horrible for cold from D6 till D15. Coldest the uppers get in that time frame is at the end of FI:

Posted Imagegfs-1-384 (2).png

now thats a supprise. its always been a close call, personally i am going for a fleeting nw'ly, have done all along. if you go for pretty much the worst scenario, thats usually the one the comes off..

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

The back end of the 12z send plus 0'c 850s over Greenland and Northern Canada, that means they'd get freezing rain, but RAIN in Greenland in December??!! wtf?  One for the bins I hope!

Why? High upper temp values into the N latitudes is a good thing if you're after cold as it promotes blocking and PV disruption?!

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted

Why? High upper temp values into the N latitudes is a good thing if you're after cold as it promotes blocking and PV disruption?!

Yeah, but the point is.....it's not going to happen

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