Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Methuselah]

No, I think his point is that it's a lot easier for Steve Murr to make a prediction about something than it is for the Met Office to do the same.  At the end of the day he is just a guy posting on a weather forum and they are a professional organisation with a reputation to uphold.

 

Someone has already mentioned this but your sarky comments all the time are getting incredibly tedious.  This is model output discussion and I very rarely see you post anything other than silly one liners.  As you're a member of the forum team maybe you should be following the forum rules a little bit closer yourself?  

I agree with you, ABCD...But, if folks make claims, then what is wrong with questioning them? Does the number of words really make any difference? 

 

For what it's worth, I'm plenty convinced that we are about to see a 'potentially' notable Arctic Blast!

[Methuselah]

Do you ever have anything constructive to share?  ...or are sarcastic one liners the best you can do ...very boring !

Nothing 'sarcastic' about it. Just a simple question...

[Ian Brown]

November was written off as a Zonal month by the usual suspects on here, it ended up being massively anti-cyclonic.

 

The first half was strongly zonal and even the METO were anticipating it being very mild and wet in their update at the beginning of the month.

[The Northern Ramper]

they are both right and wrong at different times, as are all the models, good days and bad days.

Yes, but we cannot pronounce one has a feather in its cap until the run has verified at T0, not at T132.

[Methuselah]

Yes, but we cannot pronounce one has a feather in its cap until the run has verified at T0, not at T132.

Exactly!  I don't think we'll see sustained cold until sometime in January...Can I prove that? Of course I can't!

[ABCD]

I agree with you, ABCD...But, if folks make claims, then what is wrong with questioning them? Does the number of words really make any difference? 

 

For what it's worth, I'm plenty convinced that we are about to see a 'potentially' notable Arctic Blast!

 

 

Well for one thing that's all you ever seem to do on here.  I can't remember seeing you post a chart or an actual analysis of anything.  It's always silly one liners and often they have little to do with model output and everything to with the person they are being directed at.  If it was someone else doing the same I believe they'd be asked to stop by the mods.

 

I would argue that more words are actually useful.  People who explain their reasoning tend to use more than one line to do so and those that don't are generally not offering much worth taking on board.  Your post to Steve was sarcastic and unnecessary in my opinion and by the sounds of it I'm not the only one that has this point of view.  If you genuinely want to ask questions of people then how about forming it in line with what your own thoughts may be and perhaps provide some explanation yourself?  I only wish I had the level of knowledge of some of these guys to be able to do the same but I'm realistic enough to know that I'm not there yet.  So for now I keep my thoughts to myself and enjoy reading what other people think the models are showing and in some cases what they feel they may show in the future.

 

To borrow a line from the forum team on here, if you aren't going to talk about what the models are showing then this isn't the forum for you.  And now I will go back to being quiet and stop derailing this fine forum topic.  Cheers.

[The Northern Ramper]

The first half was strongly zonal and even the METO were anticipating it being very mild and wet in their update at the beginning of the month.

The first quarter Zonal, the next 3 weeks anything but.

[Jason M]

The first half was strongly zonal and even the METO were anticipating it being very mild and wet in their update at the beginning of the month.

Hmm, there might be a lesson in there somewhere.The next few hours will be very interesting. I think the northerly is likely to be nailed this evening, but the question is what happens next. Some form of euro high with mild 850s is the most likely, but the possibility of a scandi high has increased in the last 24 hours. Will this trend continue?

[radiohead]

For all the talk of "GFS fails", it's worth point out how the ECM has shifted couple of hundreds of miles in the past 24 hours. Still going for a cold blast, but another shift eastward like this before Thursday and it could be mostly a dry cold spell. All of the models vary from run to run, thats just the nature of NWP.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by radiohead

[The Northern Ramper]

Exactly!  I don't think we'll see sustained cold until sometime in January...Can I prove that? Of course I can't!

Yes, it's akin to claiming a winner now in the winter forecast thread.

[lorenzo]

See attached example (no longer the latest/valid output, so safe to reproduce for 'education' purposes!!). It's for Thurs. Note polar low signal off W Norway, or at least how the potential was progged in this previous run.

 

Thanks Ian for the invaluable input this afternoon, a real insight to what is happening with the forecast for this week, and adds another dimension to the excellent discussion already on the thread about this week and also looking beyond. Steve, you're firing on all cylinders today !

I read a lot that Polar lows are never visible on any NWP output, amazing data on that image, couple of notable plots on the control run there, if consistent with a solution, would these be translated to the main UKMO run or are they used to say adjust the Fax output?

 

Where would we be without Dalmatians and Shannon Entropy !

 

Also re: GEM, it isn't so bad at 72 hrs, compare with UKM & JMA here.

[Mr_Pessimistic]

Do you ever have anything constructive to share?  ...or are sarcastic one liners the best you can do ...very boring !

he often simply writes what many others are thinking, and has every right too imo.

[Long haul to mild]

The first half was strongly zonal and even the METO were anticipating it being very mild and wet in their update at the beginning of the month.

Which pretty much confirms that forecasts beyond 10-14 days are a thankless task!

[Frosty.]

There is growing support from the GEFS 06z perturbations to keep the Arctic flow going strong through most of saturday and only weakening slowly but the atlantic high is now being held at bay for an extra day compared to recently, so we could get a 3 day arctic N'ly blast with snow showers, especially across exposed parts of the north & east with N'ly gales for a few days and penetrating frosts exacerbating the cold.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z is now rolling out very little change so far at t78 from the 06z run

 

 

Around t102 is when the 06z brought in the colder 850's to Scotland

Edited December 1, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Cheshire Freeze]

We're in danger of too much energy slipping east across the block again here. 6z was much cleaner, though looking better than the progressive 12z of yesterday

 

[gottolovethisweather]

At t+72, the cooler t850s are beginning to flood South, but MUCH colder air is yet to turn up if all goes to plan.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

Thanks Ian for the invaluable input this afternoon, a real insight to what is happening with the forecast for this week, and adds another dimension to the excellent discussion already on the thread about this week and also looking beyond. Steve, you're firing on all cylinders today !

I read a lot that Polar lows are never visible on any NWP output, amazing data on that image, couple of notable plots on the control run there, if consistent with a solution, would these be translated to the main UKMO run or are they used to say adjust the Fax output?

 

Where would we be without Dalmatians and Shannon Entropy !

 

Also re: GEM, it isn't so bad at 72 hrs, compare with UKM & JMA here.

cor_day3_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

Hi Lorenzo, a dunce's question probably but does that graph signify where verification is closer to 1, then the verification of said model is deemed more accurate than one rated much lower down the scale, i.e. UKMO was rated below the GFS in this instance?

Edited December 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

GFS still has the cold air

 

[Ian Brown]

We're in danger of too much energy slipping east across the block again here. 6z was much cleaner, though looking better than the progressive 12z of yesterday

 

 

Yes, absolutely zero margin for error in terms of Eastward correction.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Some impressive interrun consistency from the GFS:

UKMO will be interesting, GFS 12Z is keen to shunt the cold eastwards more quickly than the other models (although still very cold for most):

[radiohead]

06Z GFS op run was colder than 18/20 of the ENS on the 6th, so not too surprising to see an adjustment in 850 temps on the 12Z.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Will be interesting to see what happens here post 120 hrs. Lows are lining up with a negative tilt with a slither of heights remaining up towards Greenland. Could be a snow event as that low slips SE.

[Frosty.]

If we get a polar low it could dump 35 inches of level snow and drifts 20 foot deep, that happened in Dec 1995 across the far northeast with this set up shown here.

[IDO]

Back under HP for most by Saturday.

Maybe this has not been resolved yet?