Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[stratty]

EC Dalmatian plot?

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Hundred_and_One_Dalmatians

 

No idea!?! lol

 

what does this mean please Ian?

[The Northern Ramper]

So I wasn't going mad yesterday sounds like the gfs isn't as rubbish as some make out. Especially if the met office are backing it over the ECM solution. To me the ECM isn't performing too good at the moment. And personally I will back the gfs 9 times out of 10

Wow!

[Long haul to mild]

Wow, this is getting a like an Oscar acceptance speech for the GFS, who would like to thank their producer, their chart drawer, their auntie, their dog.....and for what? Because they have been cited as a possible influence on an outcome which is five and a half days away yet, with a new model suite imminent in the next few hours that may change everything!

Edited December 1, 2013 by Chalk Serpent

[Tim Bland]

Let's hope the models change their tune soon! From reading Ian F's posts and reading the long range forecast from met office (after the 3 day northerly) they are not expecting anything wintry for the rest of Decmber

[bradymk]

I would sort of agree/disagree with the the UKMO 00z analysis. I agree with maybe the bias of ECM as BA says above, every model has a bias, and ECM can over-amplify sometimes, like it did a few weeks ago so that may be one reason for favouring UKMO-GM and Mogreps however the ECM is best performer from the last week by far at the moment with GFS being trash and UKMO-GM hasnt been at its best and so unless it changes on the 12z, personally, i would still stick with ECM for now. Not too sure on the GEM support bit though, it still looks out on its own? They are the pro's though and i can sit here on this forum and disagree/agree for a bit of fun and it won't matter as i am not the one making the public forecast which matters to millions of people and businesses. Keep us updated Ian, you do a great job and add to the extra excitement of the forum

Edited December 1, 2013 by bradythemole

[fergieweather]

EC Dalmatian plot?

See attached example (no longer the latest/valid output, so safe to reproduce for 'education' purposes!!). It's for Thurs. Note polar low signal off W Norway, or at least how the potential was progged in this previous run.

[Captain Shortwave]

Let's hope the models change their tune soon! From reading Ian F's posts and reading the long range forecast from met office (after the 3 day northerly) they are not expecting anything wintry for the rest of Decmber

I would say a block to the east sounds likely, but how far north it is means a huge difference between mild South/South westerlies, chilly south easterlies and frigid snowy easterlies.

I think the UKMO is probably closest. ECM is probably a touch too amplified and hence the northerly produced is a little too long. GFS and GEM will be put on the naughty step yet again 

[SMU]

People can I just comment-

 

The MET office will go with the data they have, which as highlighted by Ian at this early stage they highlight a NW/ SE split in the day 10-15 Means, this is all you can expect-

 

They will not go on record at day 10 & say the beast from the East is going to arrive... Remember the models are just getting to grips with the speed of the first solution, which has a net effect on the wave amplitude on the second possible ridging towards scandi

 

Get phase 1 sorted first & then the next phase will evolve- * IF* the wave is significant enough the MOGREPS / EC/ GFS ensembles will gradually swing to a more substantial cold outlook- just like the GFS ensembles have ( NB: ensemble watch) this week...

 

 

S

[Long haul to mild]

Let's hope the models change their tune soon! From reading Ian F's posts and reading the long range forecast from met office (after the 3 day northerly) they are not expecting anything wintry for the rest of Decmber

I still firmly believe that anything outside about ten days simply can't be forecasted. This is not to denigrate the efforts of long range forecasters, who I have great respect for, but small changes in the atmosphere that cannot be seen at the moment can have huge effects down the line. Remember that the zonal train has been coming for the last three weeks apparently but there's still no sign of it! Therefore I won't be worrying about the rest of December as yet.

[Weathizard]

People realise, the views of the chief forecaster/Met Office are just the same as what all of us are saying, it's their personal opinion, there's no point in saying its wrong/right because it's 5 days away!

The UKM simply favour the GFS/GEM solution, the MOGREPS must be going for something similar for them to favour it.

[fergieweather]

People can I just comment- The MET office will go with the data they have, which as highlighted by Ian at this early stage they highlight a NW/ SE split in the day 10-15 Means, this is all you can expect- They will not go on record at day 10 & say the beast from the East is going to arrive... Remember the models are just getting to grips with the speed of the first solution, which has a net effect on the wave amplitude on the second possible ridging towards scandi Get phase 1 sorted first & then the next phase will evolve- * IF* the wave is significant enough the MOGREPS / EC/ GFS ensembles will gradually swing to a more substantial cold outlook- just like the GFS ensembles have ( NB: ensemble watch) this week...  S

Agreed wholly

[Cloud 10]

See attached example (no longer the latest/valid output, so safe to reproduce for 'education' purposes!!). It's for Thurs. Note polar low signal off W Norway, or at least how the potential was progged in this previous run.

 

Thanks for that,its self evident why its called a dalmatian plot!

[The Northern Ramper]

I still firmly believe that anything outside about ten days simply can't be forecasted. This is not to denigrate the efforts of long range forecasters, who I have great respect for, but small changes in the atmosphere that cannot be seen at the moment can have huge effects down the line. Remember that the zonal train has been coming for the last three weeks apparently but there's still no sign of it! Therefore I won't be worrying about the rest of December as yet.

November was written off as a Zonal month by the usual suspects on here, it ended up being massively anti-cyclonic.

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

See attached example (no longer the latest/valid output, so safe to reproduce for 'education' purposes!!). It's for Thurs. Note polar low signal off W Norway, or at least how the potential was progged in this previous run.

That's a great way of looking at variations.  No wonder it's called a Dalmation plot, more than 101 spots on that.

 

Really good example of how much variability there is in the system by 120hrs ( which I assume it was when it was produced.

 

Thanks Ian, useful

 

Cloud 10 beat me to it

Edited December 1, 2013 by NorthNorfolkWeather

[bradymk]

People can I just comment-

 

The MET office will go with the data they have, which as highlighted by Ian at this early stage they highlight a NW/ SE split in the day 10-15 Means, this is all you can expect-

 

They will not go on record at day 10 & say the beast from the East is going to arrive... Remember the models are just getting to grips with the speed of the first solution, which has a net effect on the wave amplitude on the second possible ridging towards scandi

 

Get phase 1 sorted first & then the next phase will evolve- * IF* the wave is significant enough the MOGREPS / EC/ GFS ensembles will gradually swing to a more substantial cold outlook- just like the GFS ensembles have ( NB: ensemble watch) this week...

 

 

S

Yep, the difference between forum weather watching and the reality of a professional organisation who would be jumped on by the media. I think a Scandi High is a real possibility but the question is, how far north will any possible high get. We could have cool continental flow, southerly or something a lot colder. Plenty of options, no sign of anything zonal.

 

Just came across the latest KMA ensemble for month ahead

Edited December 1, 2013 by bradythemole

[Long haul to mild]

November was written off as a Zonal month by the usual suspects on here, it ended up being massively anti-cyclonic.

Very true. The problem with GFS is that it goes too far out in my opinion and it almost always resets to default zonality in deep FI, and many on here take it at its word. When it finally does go zonal, the GFS fans all say "told you so" where the truth is that a call for an eventual return to zonality in the UK is not exactly daring!

[Methuselah]

People can I just comment-

 

The MET office will go with the data they have, which as highlighted by Ian at this early stage they highlight a NW/ SE split in the day 10-15 Means, this is all you can expect-

 

They will not go on record at day 10 & say the beast from the East is going to arrive... Remember the models are just getting to grips with the speed of the first solution, which has a net effect on the wave amplitude on the second possible ridging towards scandi

 

Get phase 1 sorted first & then the next phase will evolve- * IF* the wave is significant enough the MOGREPS / EC/ GFS ensembles will gradually swing to a more substantial cold outlook- just like the GFS ensembles have ( NB: ensemble watch) this week...

 

 

S

So...you have extra data?

[fergieweather]

That's a great way of looking at variations. No wonder it's called a Dalmation plot, more than 101 spots on that.Really good example of how much variability there is in the system by 120hrs ( which I assume it was when it was produced.Thanks Ian, usefulCloud 10 beat me to it

Yup, the raft of products from ECMWF is stunning, spanning the shorter-range to the seasonal; wave heights to tropical storm forecasts; you name it. An impressive lot, those folk in Reading! Edited December 1, 2013 by fergieweather

[Mr Frost]

November was written off as a Zonal month by the usual suspects on here, it ended up being massively anti-cyclonic.

Indeed. Just have a browse through the Metoffice forecast thread that Gavin and Stuart update on a daily basis...they were going for temperatures to be around average or above average through November. How did that month turn out? Below average...Some folk on here never learn! I am looking forward to this Arctic blast, very impressive looking and a great to Winter. (This is the first day of the season - some on here talk as though we are about to enter Spring) Edited December 1, 2013 by Mr Frost

[Mucka]

I honestly think that it is wrong to assume a GFS bias when looking at the charts, if you do that you will automatically dismiss it even when it is right with a flatter pattern as was the case around mid month. Take each chart on face value and let your experience tell you when that bias is in evidence but don't assume it. This time it was clear that bias was showing but last time it was not.

 

I think we are all clear the Northerly will happen now are we not? Tomorrow will be the last day for any significant changes to East/West placement of the trough though we can expect continuing adjustments from there on in. I am hoping we can move things back West a little at least but currently the shift has been Eastward, we need that to stop.

If we can a significant Westward shift there is room for big upgrades to the cold and its longevity with the potential for our ridge to arch toward Scandinavia rather than get forced SE.

 

Regardless there is absolutely no sign of zonal or mild weather returning for all as some have been persistently saying even though the MetO 15 day forecast is going for high pressure over the UK with energy pushing NE over the top hence there mild and unsettled for the NW forecast but for me it is entirely p[ossible that high pressure will be further NE than they are currently forecasting for.

 

ECM London ensembles would fit with the MetO forecast of high pressure holding on in the South but there is more than hint of a slack Easterly flow being possible too.

 

 

Back to the here and now there is good potential for snow showers in NW next Friday and these could penetrate well inland but the further East the pattern sets up the less potential there is for showers to develop. I disagree that the current output does not have us in Northerly flow long enough for showers to develop, they would be fairly widespread in the NW if ECM was correct for a good 24 hours IMO and if the pattern gets shifted back West there is potential for temporary accumulations even to low levels as the flow would have a little more of NW flavour to it and showers would likely be heavy and prolonged for a time.

 

So eyes down to see if we can get any upgrades to this Northerly and then after the fun is over we may already be seeing potential for the next cold incursion rather than staring down the barrel of an Atlantic dominated pattern.

 

Great start to the Winter, have fun all.

[ABCD]

So...you have extra data?

 

No, I think his point is that it's a lot easier for Steve Murr to make a prediction about something than it is for the Met Office to do the same.  At the end of the day he is just a guy posting on a weather forum and they are a professional organisation with a reputation to uphold.

 

Someone has already mentioned this but your sarky comments all the time are getting incredibly tedious.  This is model output discussion and I very rarely see you post anything other than silly one liners.  As you're a member of the forum team maybe you should be following the forum rules a little bit closer yourself?  

[Frosty.]

Well it obviously makes a massive difference. It's all very well the met office siding with the Gfs over the ECM at 132, but if the ECM turns out to be correct then it is yet another Gfs fail.

they are both right and wrong at different times, as are all the models, good days and bad days.

[Tim Bland]

It's true to say we are free to speculate on what MAY happen, the reality is thought that the met office seem quite confident of the rest of December (bar nxt weekend) being fairly mild. If they thought they was <20% chance of wintry conditions they would mention it or say that things are very uncertain. I think some people are clutching at straws a bit. Don't stop though guys or this forum would be boring

[Phantom2]

So...you have extra data?

Do you ever have anything constructive to share?  ...or are sarcastic one liners the best you can do ...very boring !

[bluearmy]

It's true to say we are free to speculate on what MAY happen, the reality is thought that the met office seem quite confident of the rest of December (bar nxt weekend) being fairly mild. If they thought they was <20% chance of wintry conditions they would mention it or say that things are very uncertain. I think some people are clutching at straws a bit. Don't stop though guys or this forum would be boring

They say average tim and that the se could stay lower than that. Don't confuse 'milder' with mild.