Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[The Northern Ramper]

WOW Gfs trumps Ecm, feather in the cap time for the much maligned gfs.

It hasn't happened yet.

[bluearmy]

WOW Gfs trumps Ecm, feather in the cap time for the much maligned gfs.

I'd wait for the 12z's first Karl! ( though I sense you're teasing somewhat)

and it's a blend of output inc gfs, not pure gfs.

[cooling climate]

If and again a big IF the stratosphere profiles shown on the instant

weather maps are any where near the mark in the extended range then

some of the juicy ens FI charts will need to be taken more seriously.

Certainly something to keep an eye on in the longer term.

P.S. If the mangnitude of cold shown by the models is correct then

expect the BBC especially as well as the met to be trending colder

with the temps for end of the week into next weekend as we go througth

this coming week.

[swilliam]

Interesting mean from the GEFS at 348. Even at this range there are significant ridges or blocking areas in the aleutian and sceuro areas . Looking forward to see how it all pans out something interesting is afoot ones suspects.

 

[Methuselah]

It hasn't happened yet.

Indeed!

[fergieweather]

Has the meto had any indication of a possible scandy high/ easterly Ian F?

Nope they go for *likely* average/milder pattern into 10-15 d period but it's a tricky one: more sIgnal for W/SW flow for NW giving unsettled/wetter wx; anticyclonic and perhaps colder to SE.... so a broadly NW/S/SE split (latter parts dry or largely so). BUT they note & caution how temperature regime & degree of 'mildness' in SE is uncertain, depending on degree of continental influence to the flow. Their longer-term MR products indicative of no active frontal systems bothering much of UK into 10-15d period and equally a very muted or wholly absent snow threat. That's their latest based on 00z suites...

[Frosty.]

It hasn't happened yet.

What difference does that make, current trend shows gfs above ecm..makes a nice change from all the constant gfs is rubbish etc.

[Ali1977]

Thanks for your reply, still a little bit of a fluid situation by the sounds of it, but defo no b from e rumbles!!!

[bluearmy]

Nope they go for *likely* average/milder pattern into 10-15 d period but it's a tricky one: more sIgnal for W/SW flow for NW giving unsettled/wetter wx; anticyclonic and perhaps colder to SE.... so a broadly NW/S/SE split (latter parts dry or largely so). BUT they note & caution how temperature regime & degree of 'mildness' in SE is uncertain, depending on degree of continental influence to the flow. Their longer-term MR products indicative of no active frontal systems bothering much of UK into 10-15d period and equally a very muted or wholly absent snow threat. That's their latest based on 00z suites...

Ian, I asked yesterday - not sure if you missed it or if the info isn't publically available: what is the horizontal/vertical res of mogreps-15?

[The Northern Ramper]

What difference does that make, current trend shows gfs above ecm..makes a nice change from all the constant gfs is rubbish etc.

Well it obviously makes a massive difference. It's all very well the met office siding with the Gfs over the ECM at 132, but if the ECM turns out to be correct then it is yet another Gfs fail.

[Cloud 10]

Parts of Scotland (obviously) where 10-20cm possible with blizzards & drifting. Current modelling also highlights parts NI; down western fringes of England & Wales (eg few cm possible SW Moors). Snow just periodically grazing eastern coastal districts. Ops Centre note (in briefing issued late this morning) most inland/central areas of England from Scottish border S should stay dry & clear, including (thankfully) populous SE. The vexed issue of polar low development (and yes, the Chief Forecaster specifically describes it as such, with EC Dalmatian plot to illustrate possibilities) running down N Sea is critical to potential surge threat in the east.

 

EC Dalmatian plot?

[Methuselah]

What difference does that make, current trend shows gfs above ecm..makes a nice change from all the constant gfs is rubbish etc.

Will you please desist from rubbishing the GFS: it may not be the best model in the world, but it does give us a 'rough guide' as to what's likely to happen...As do the ECM, BOM, JMA or whatever...

Edited December 1, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue
Daft attempt at English..

[IDO]

The T132 charts from GEM and GFS respectively:

Compared to ECM at T120 and T144:

The trough & HP further east, and therefore longevity reduced, appears to be the distinction and ties in closer with yesterday's MO-GREPS; going for a short sharp shot.

ECM edging that way on recent runs...

Yesterday 0z at T168: Today at T144:

JMA Week 3-4 recent update: ...MLB still looking a possible driver for the UK weather.

Edited December 1, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[SMU]

Looking at the gem, that's strange as its way different to ukgm and gfs. Can only assume mogreps-15 is in that area?that must have been a tough decision for the senior man, seeing as ECM op has modelled upstream rather better than the models you listed.Still, at this range, it's not too important.

Indeed a rather surprising decision to take the GEM which has been cannon fodder in the pattern sypnosis so far, combined with the equally useless GFS-No mention also of the ukmo raw in there either.Seems a poor decision to me especially when NCEP have dismissed pretty much every run of the GFS this week-I would have run with ECM and UKMOblend today but I havent got access to the mogreps- not that it really matters ......S

[fergieweather]

What difference does that make, current trend shows gfs above ecm..makes a nice change from all the constant gfs is rubbish etc.

The key to UKMO thinking re sticking with their GM & MOGREPS (with the GFS/GEM support) revolves around how they're less keen to build a solid N-S orientated ridge near Iceland at T+132... & the net result is a faster cut-off to the cold air soon after T+144... the EC solution, at least for now, is judged too slow and too amplified. But let's await the 12z runs with interest to see if there's any decisive swing either way.

[SMU]

Look at the GEM it doesnt even get any cold into the SW

The GEM is to fast just like GFS gas been for the past 5 days.

The slowest solution looks likely or the solution that lends itself to the slowest solution out of all the means

Halfway UKMO raw v ECM raw

Gem + GFS to fast

S

Edited December 1, 2013 by Steve Murr

[bluearmy]

What difference does that make, current trend shows gfs above ecm..makes a nice change from all the constant gfs is rubbish etc.

Karl, I realise you are serious! It's at T 132. We have no idea if they feel the same at T120 or T168. And more importantly, it isn't gfs, it's a concensus of gfs/gem/ukmo/mogreps-15. so at T132, gfs op is closer to Exeter's thinking than ECM op. lets wait and see ECM op trend further east with the block at T120 later. Otherwise they might change their mind!

[terrier]

So I wasn't going mad yesterday sounds like the gfs isn't as rubbish as some make out. Especially if the met office are backing it over the ECM solution. To me the ECM isn't performing too good at the moment. And personally I will back the gfs 9 times out of 10

[IDO]

Indeed a rather surprising decision to take the GEM which has been cannon fodder in the pattern sypnosis so far, combined with the equally useless GFS-No mention also of the ukmo raw in there either.Seems a poor decision to me especially when NCEP have dismissed pretty much every run of the GFS this week-I would have run with ECM and UKMOblend today but I havent got access to the mogreps- not that it really matters ......S

I am not sure but I think IF is referring to the Northerly as progged at T132, not what happens at D8+. At T132 GEM and GFS much closer together than they are to ECM. Could be wrong though,

[bluearmy]

Indeed a rather surprising decision to take the GEM which has been cannon fodder in the pattern sypnosis so far, combined with the equally useless GFS-No mention also of the ukmo raw in there either.Seems a poor decision to me especially when NCEP have dismissed pretty much every run of the GFS this week-I would have run with ECM and UKMOblend today but I havent got access to the mogreps- not that it really matters ......S

Steve, GM is ukmo (global model)not surprised that by shy away from the extra amplification of ECM as it is a slight bias of the model. Still, it's called this better than all the other output so far. I'll stick with it for the time being. Edited December 1, 2013 by bluearmy

[bradymk]

So I wasn't going mad yesterday sounds like the gfs isn't as rubbish as some make out. Especially if the met office are backing it over the ECM solution. To me the ECM isn't performing too good at the moment. And personally I will back the gfs 9 times out of 10

No wrong, remember GFS has moved across to "ECM solution" the last few runs. So what you say is completely wrong. They might be favouring GFS now, but thats after it has already changed towards ECM.

[bluearmy]

So I wasn't going mad yesterday sounds like the gfs isn't as rubbish as some make out. Especially if the met office are backing it over the ECM solution. To me the ECM isn't performing too good at the moment. And personally I will back the gfs 9 times out of 10

NURSE !!!!!

[The Northern Ramper]

I am not sure but I think IF is referring to the Northerly as progged at T132, not what happens at D8+. At T132 GEM and GFS much closer together than they are to ECM. Could be wrong though,

What happens at 132 sets the trend for the next few days

[fergieweather]

Chief also notes how there's considerable variation in EC EPS members re the scope of 'dig' of cold in 4-5d output but "....deterministic solutions, with their higher resolution, probably stand a better chance of capturing the amplification event..."

[SMU]

I am not sure but I think IF is referring to the Northerly as progged at T132, not what happens at D8+. At T132 GEM and GFS much closer together than they are to ECM. Could be wrong though,

They are referring to the speed of the solutions to change and the amplitude of the wave.Slow = win.ECM operational expected to resolve this better-Terrier as ever your barking up the wrong tree Edited December 1, 2013 by Steve Murr