Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[EML Network]

This is going to end up being a 36 hour cold snap if the 12z is anything to go by

 

Starting point dependent upon location is sometime around Thursday lunch time | late afternoon 

 

 

LESS than 36 hours later in fact, the cold air already mixing out...

 

 

Not even a flash in the pan , in fact not even noteworthy, anyone that did get snowfall form THIS RUN, would wake up Saturday morning and find it all gone. 

[Weathizard]

If we get a polar low it could dump 35 inches of level snow and drifts 20 foot deep, that happened in Dec 1995 across the far northeast with this set up shown here.

Forgetting to mention Polar lows are probably the rarest phenomenon in British weather, I like your enthusiasm but the chances of this happening is 1 in a million.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is going to end up being a 36 hour cold snap if the 12z is anything to go by

 

Starting point dependent upon location is sometime around Thursday lunch time | late afternoon 

 

 

LESS than 36 hours later in fact, the cold air already mixing out...

 

 

Not even a flash in the pan , in fact not even noteworthy, anyone that did get snowfall form THIS RUN, would wake up Saturday morning and find it all gone. 

 

BUT probably important to point out the last few 12z GFS runs have been VERY progressive (which has even been noted by NOAA). Even if it's being just slightly too progressive, it will have huge ramifications going forward RE length of northerly.

[radiohead]

This is going to end up being a 36 hour cold snap if the 12z is anything to go by

 

Starting point dependent upon location is sometime around Thursday lunch time | late afternoon 

 

 

LESS than 36 hours later in fact, the cold air already mixing out...

 

 

Not even a flash in the pan , in fact not even noteworthy, anyone that did get snowfall form THIS RUN, would wake up Saturday morning and find it all gone. 

 

Let's see where this op run fits in with the ensembles though. 

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO T120

[Barry12]

The GFS has just one very cold day on Friday, then high pressure builds in on Saturday, with much milder uppers coming in. With the Met Office seemingly backing the GFS then this is worrying. All this fuss over one day will seem very over the top, especially given snow doesn't look that widespread at the moment. Let's hope the ECM is right with it's 3 day arctic blast.

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Barry95

[garbagebags]

Forgetting to mention Polar lows are probably the rarest phenomenon in British weather, I like your enthusiasm but the chances of this happening is 1 in a million.

 

1 in a million would mean a polar low once every 11 thousand winters? (assuming every day in winter is 1 chance).

[IDO]

UKMO even further east with the high. T120:

Non event.

Edited December 1, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Oh dear.....UKMO we don't even get the N'ly! It's shunted off to our east.

[Joe Levy]

The GFS has just one very cold day on Friday, then high pressure builds in on Saturday, with much milder uppers coming in. With the Met Office seemingly backing the GFS then this is worrying. All this fuss over one day will seem very over the top, especially given snow doesn't look that widespread at the moment. Let's hope the ECM is right with it's 3 day arctic blast.

 

They didn't back the GFS, they backed a particular run of the GFS and only elements of it. They took a blend of UKMO and Mogreps, supported by GFS, GEM and their own GME, if I remember correctly. This run could be taken completely differently by forecasting professionals. Also it is quite notably different to the previous run, so some caution is required

[Gaz1985]

GFS going for only a short lived cold snap for most of the UK, the proper cold doesn't get a foothold until early Friday

 

 

Worst of the cold gone by Saturday

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Gaz1985

[legritter]

GFS current run ,i half expected this ,lets see what the next half hour brings ,tonights ECM and MET far more important i think ,plenty of twists yet as its all still 96 hrs away ,fingers crossed 

[radiohead]

Oh dear.....UKMO we don't even get the N'ly! It's shunted off to our east.

 

Yes, the eastward shift in the pattern that I hightlighted on the 12Z ECM yesterday. I did say to keep an eye out for this happening, we've seen it happen before.

[gottolovethisweather]

This is going to end up being a 36 hour cold snap if the 12z is anything to go by

 

Starting point dependent upon location is sometime around Thursday lunch time | late afternoon 

 

 

LESS than 36 hours later in fact, the cold air already mixing out...

 

 

Not even a flash in the pan , in fact not even noteworthy, anyone that did get snowfall form THIS RUN, would wake up Saturday morning and find it all gone. 

 

On the positive side, "at least it won't be mild" yet!  Sorry, a coldie's bias type post right there, I admit it. Besides, if folk followed the general trend from the 12z ensembles, they have often hinted at the increased likelihood of High Pressure domination nearby, then perhaps moving on to Scandinavia, by mid-December. Agreed, not fantastic but NOT a disaster over all and a long road ahead of us too. Might not be a snowfest IMBY or in fact your back yard, but many will get something by way of wintry crystals.

Edited December 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[JP1972]

he often simply writes what many others are thinking, and has every right too imo.

 

Really, so why are my one liners which have more to do with weather removed, yet because he is a member of the forum team he can get away with one liners with absolutely no relevance whatsoever to the weather or models?

[Frosty.]

Forgetting to mention Polar lows are probably the rarest phenomenon in British weather, I like your enthusiasm but the chances of this happening is 1 in a million.

I only mentioned it because lorenzo did, I never said it would, just that it might if the pattern allows.

[SMU]

Not so good 12z UKMO-

 

could be a good METO call on the slightly faster solution- which is around 200 Miles further East

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013120112/UN144-21.GIF?01-17

 

Nice 144 sees scandi Ridging still evident,

 

Huge pool of cold air just over to the continent.

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013120112/UN144-7.GIF?01-17

 

 

S

Edited December 1, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not so good 12z UKMO-

 

could be a good METO call on the slightly faster solution- which is around 200 Miles further East

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013120112/UN144-21.GIF?01-17

 

Nice 144 sees scandi Ridging still evident,

 

S

 

Yep the 144 chart is a very nice chart going forward. If this N'ly comes to nothing, we may be left chasing an E'ly.

[Barry12]

Yep the 144 chart is a very nice chart going forward. If this N'ly comes to nothing, we may be left chasing an E'ly.

 

This is going to be a tiring year model watching...

[Cheshire Freeze]

This is going to be a tiring year model watching...

 

When is it ever anything else? I knackered myself last year, staying up for the 0z runs as I was hooked.

[gottolovethisweather]

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[Bristawl Si]

Oh dear.....UKMO we don't even get the N'ly! It's shunted off to our east.

Deja vu from the early days of NW - a regular occurence back then

[nick sussex]

I've never seen such drama over a northerly, the models are all over the place. The differences in the upstream pattern at just 120hrs between the GFS and UKMO are laughable and at 144hrs just ridiculous.

 

At least the UKMO has some easterly potential at 144hrs, the GFS well if its right then its a poor outlook, if its wrong then well I just give up on this model as this is an embarrassment to NWP, the UKMO pushes things east but has largely the same upstream pattern as the 00hrs, the GFS well personally I think its progressive nature has really gone overboard here.

[cyclonic happiness]

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Can you not do one liners too please, this forum is not a 'you' and 'us' it's for everyone who has a valuable input to make.

[UV-RAY]

Yep the 144 chart is a very nice chart going forward. If this N'ly comes to nothing, we may be left chasing an E'ly.

Lets hope not, another winter season of chasing phantom easterlies is just too much to take. These eastward corrections seem to becoming more and more predominant over the years, or so it appears.