Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Mark Bayley]

<snip>. Have we been given any clue as to what this pattern change may entail? The answer is yes- Scandinavian height rises with a possibility of some kind of retrogression beyond week 2. Is this pattern change certain? Well the pattern change is but the easterly isn't. One thing that remains highly unlikely (at present) is traditional zonality, despite what some people will have you believe.

Just playing around with the GFS postage stamps and there is defiantly growing support for Scandinavian height rises with the core of the PV relocating to the Greenland/Canadian sector. Some make more of it than others, although the control and a few other runs look pretty good (UK terms). As mentioned, something to definitely watch in the longer term.

Edited December 1, 2013 by Mark Bayley

[MR EXTREMES]

its looking like the ecm also has the northerly futher east already.

[Mucka]

its looking like the ecm also has the northerly futher east already.

 

It's a;ready further West than UKMO at 72h that's all I know and that's a good start.

[gottolovethisweather]

I've got a competition for all of us.

 

Who on here can post for the longest period without mentioning another poster's name i.e. SM said this, Ian F said that, Ian B thinks this. All well and good I suppose and yes, I too am guilty of falling into the same trap. However does it truly add anything other than perhaps alienate someone else. Anyway, for purposes of the competition, I will exclude myself and the winner will receive a free NW radar subscription (best confirm with Paul firstly) try it, you make like the idea.

 

This is the MODEL OUTPUT discussion thread, NOT the PERSONALITY discussion thread.

 

I repeat, yes I've done it and hopefully refrain from doing so as muchly as possible.

 

ECM 12z is rolling, is it not?

Edited December 1, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[cooling climate]

Some may find this interesting.Having looked through the GFS ens

perturbation 2 best fits the UKMO model at t144 and goes on to

show a peach of a run with a potent easterly and northerly blocking.

[Captain Shortwave]

its looking like the ecm also has the northerly futher east already.

Aww you could have put a spoiler alert for all those waiting for the ECM to actually run  

Day 4 ECM

UKMO

GFS

Edited December 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[fergieweather]

Can we just clear something up please?Ian F merely stated earlier that the assessment from the 00Z suite was to use a blend of models including the GFS at T132 as their favoured solution. He clearly stated that it was a "point in time" matter that could change. It is also 5 days away.It therefore beggars belief that some posters are claiming that Ian's comments mean that the MetO have somehow ditched the ECM and are now so deeply in love with the GFS that they are considering a honeymoon in the Maldives with it. No-one has "won" anything; the Northerly that may or may not happen is a number of days away and as for after that, it's anyone's guess but I'm willing to bet it won't be mild and zonal for some while yet.

To clarify even further: what I meant was they accepted their GM and MOGREPS solutions as the more favoured and noted broad support from GFS / GEM. They didn't go with GFS in isolation: merely preferred its similar evolution (to their models) versus EC. That may of course change.

[SW Saltire]

It would be best if people refrained from posting one liners, 2 seconds into a run. At least supply charts if you are going to make claims

Edited December 1, 2013 by SW Saltire

[bobbydog]

well, i'm not particularly bothered about a quick northerly at the beginning of winter. i'm not that desperate to see a snowflake that i'd give up the rest of winter!

the GFS, for all its faults, may be wrong, over-progressive or whatever, it is NOT however, showing a return to raging zonal, or a vortex running the show. neither is it refusing to allow an easterly- the weather decides that, not the models.

 

in the far reaches of FI, it is showing this-

 

 

 

a split tropospheric vortex and a pretty hefty attempt at a split stratospheric vortex. along with a scandi high, which should it happen, could very well be where we want it by the time it becomes reality

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120112/ECH1-96.GIF?01-0

 

ECM 96 -  still on track.

 

Remember the northerly will be VERY cold- but mainly dry away from the North. Lets get the cold & frost in & then something more wintry from the East hopefully...

 

Small nuances between UKMO will impact the OVERALL pattern very little- East / West doesn't really matter-

infact all it means NET is that the SW wont be as cold.

 

S

Edited December 1, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Cheshire Freeze]

Some may find this interesting.Having looked through the GFS ensperturbation 2 best fits the UKMO model at t144 and goes on toshow a peach of a run with a potent easterly and northerly blocking.

 

The UKMO 144 chart was a peach going forward, there's no doubt about that.

[Ian Brown]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120112/ECH1-96.GIF?01-0

 

ECM 96 -  still on track.

 

Remember the northerly will be VERY cold- but mainly dry away from the North. Lets get the cold & frost in & then something more wintry from the East hopefully...

 

Small nuances between UKMO will impact the OVERALL pattern very little- East / West doesn't really matter-

infact all it means NET is that the SW wont be as cold.

 

S

Its better than the UKMO at the same time frame but as for an easterly, it's playing the long game for that. Thankfully its December 1 ! 

[SW Saltire]

I've got a competition for all of us.

 

Who on here can post for the longest period without mentioning another poster's name i.e. SM said this, Ian F said that, Ian B thinks this. All well and good I suppose

and yes, I too am

guilty of falling into the same trap. However does it truly add anything other than perhaps alienate someone else. Anyway, for purposes of the competition, I will

exclude myself and the

winner will receive a free NW radar subscription (best confirm with Paul firstly) try it, you make like the idea. http://f1.nwstatic.co.uk/forum//public/style_emoticons

/default/give_rose.gif.pagespeed.ce.Kn3bzvYGxF.gif

 

This is the MODEL OUTPUT discussion thread, NOT the PERSONALITY discussion thread.

I repeat, yes I've done it and

hopefully refrain from doing so as muchly as possible.

 

ECM 12z is rolling, is it not?

The two are intrinsically though. Unfortunately the posters bias has to be analysed in order to ascertain a true depiction of what the models are showing.

[SMU]

To clarify even further: what I meant was they accepted their GM and MOGREPS solutions as the more favoured and noted broad support from GFS / GEM. They didn't go with GFS in isolation: merely preferred its similar evolution (to their models) versus EC. That may of course change.

 

Ian Any chance of the UKMO 168 snippet tonight-/ Image- or commentary whether the ridging is looking good for Scandi heights-

 

thanks

Steve

[Mucka]

ECM 96h is very close to the GFS 12z, just a tad slower. UKMO on its own at the moment

 

[Liam J]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned a lot is the potential for some very stormy weather over Northern Britain on Thursday, certainly some scope for severe gales perhaps storm force winds. Expect wind warnings to be issued before we see the wintry blast dig in.

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Liam J

[Matty M]

Cold but mostly dry away from Scotland.

 

Some very cold nights with severe frosts.

 

Looks like a real winter snow storm for parts of Europe.

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by Matty M

[karlos1983]

Certainly cold at +120

 

[SMU]

UKMO & ECM identical @ 120 today- so we are more or less there now-

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013120112/ECF0-120.GIF?01-0

 

A light edge off the base uppers now @ -9c, however 144 will see similar values over the UK.

 

IF ECM looks like the UKMO 144 tonight expect to see a big fat Scandi high at 240..........

 

S

[Mucka]

 

Same pattern 400 miles West please

Edited December 1, 2013 by Mucka

[on the coast]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned a lot is the potential for some very stormy weather over Northern Britain on Thursday, certainly some scope for severe gales perhaps storm force winds. Expect some wind warnings to be issued before we see the wintry blast dig in.

 

ecm.gif

Agree. All this talk of cold and snow but the wind looks very worrying for some with flooding?

[radiohead]

The eastward shift continues with today's 12Z ECM.

 

Comparing today's T120 with yesterday's T144 :

 

Yesterday :

 

 

Today :

 

Edited December 1, 2013 by radiohead

[Gavin Hannah]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned a lot is the potential for some very stormy weather over Northern Britain on Thursday, certainly some scope for severe gales perhaps storm force winds. Expect wind warnings to be issued before we see the wintry blast dig in.

 

ecm.gif

 

Could produce some proper blizzard conditions and deliver some decent snow amounts to the mountains. 

[Liam J]

Agree. All this talk of cold and snow but the wind looks very worrying for some with flooding?

Yes, and Ian F did mention the threat of coastal flooding. Any thoughts from the Met Office on the potential for disruptive winds, Ian? 

[Snowman.]

Yes, and Ian F did mention the threat of coastal flooding. Any thoughts from the Met Office on the potential for disruptive winds, Ian? 

Wasn't there a risk of some storm surges in the EA?